Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON ARE BEHAVING LARGELY AS EXPECTED
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF STRATUS DECK
OVER WEST GEORGIA. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY POTENTIAL FOR
RECOVERY OVER WEST GEORGIA AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM COULD
LEAD TO A RESURGENCE IN CAPE VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE FAVORED WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS THE MOST PLENTIFUL.

ONCE STORMS DIE OFF LATE THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WRT THE STRATUS DECKS FORMING AND THIS ROUND
OF MODELS SHOWS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL AS WELL. KEPT SKY GRIDS
HIGHER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE BUT STOPPED SHORT OF INCLUDING
LOW OVERCAST FOR NOW.

DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF OF STRATUS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED. IF STRATUS IS UNABLE TO
FORM...WEST GA WILL BE FAVORED FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST CREATES SLIGHT DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM ATHENS TO MACON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. JUST CANT RID OURSELVES OF THE MARGINALLY
LARGE LAPSE RATES OR THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO STRONG STORMS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THUS CURRENT
FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH...THE
COMBINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND A SFC HIGH MAY
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE CWA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH FEATURES OF LONG
TERM. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND BROAD MOISTURE FIELD WILL SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR A
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS OVERNIGHT AS
DISTINGUISHING LOCATIONS OF HIGHER OR LOWER CHANCES IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE SINCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ON WHERE OLD OUTFLOWS OR OTHER BOUNDARIES END UP FROM
PREVIOUS EVENING ACTIVITY...THEN BECOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN AFTER
ACTION GETS GOING. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EACH DAY WITH LOW END MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CAN EXPECT SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG INTENSITIES AND A FEW COULD
BE SEVERE.

AN UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BEGIN TAKING OVER BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE SFC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAY SERVE TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DECREASED SOME POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND STILL LOOKING A BIT TOO HIGH FOR LATE
WEEK MAX VALUES GIVEN CLOUD COVERAGE SO BUMPED DOWN A BIT.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING STRATUS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF GEORGIA HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY DELAYED START TO
ATL ARE STORMS BUT STILL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE VICINITY AT THIS
HOUR. WILL KEEP TEMPO IN THROUGH 20S FOR ATL AND THEN ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOCUSED MORE ON EAST SIDE OF STATE AND AFFECT MCN AND
AHN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST MVFR IN THE
TEMPO AND VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WITH A REPEAT OF
CONVECTION ON WED WITH PROB30 ADVERTISED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  88  64  90 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         69  85  68  88 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  80  58  84 /  20  30  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    65  85  63  88 /  20  40  30  40
COLUMBUS        69  86  67  89 /  30  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     66  85  66  87 /  20  30  30  40
MACON           67  87  64  89 /  30  40  40  40
ROME            65  84  63  88 /  20  40  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  63  88 /  20  40  30  40
VIDALIA         69  89  70  90 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281515-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY FROM 2PM THROUGH 10PM. STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DUE TO MAINLY THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN A
LINGERING MOIST AIRMASS. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS LOOK
TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HIGH PRESSURE MAY LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY
GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

GAZ073-083-084-096-097-107-109-271945-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN TWIGGS...PULASKI...LAURENS...WILKINSON...BALDWIN...BLECKLEY AND
DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GORDON TO MAGNOLIA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TWIGGS...PULASKI...LAURENS...WILKINSON...BALDWIN...BLECKLEY
AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE OCMULGEE PUBLIC FISHING AREA...MAGNOLIA...
GORDON...RIPLEY...MYRICKS MILL...FITZPATRICK...BULLARD...PAULK...
TARVERSVILLE...MARION...PORTER...GOLDSBORO...ROYAL...COLEY STATION
AND CARY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3235 8356 3238 8354 3240 8352 3239 8351
      3242 8348 3248 8349 3252 8354 3263 8354
      3266 8356 3290 8333 3290 8315 3299 8310
      3241 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 253DEG 11KT 3285 8329 3267 8347
          3247 8346

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

GAZ061-073-074-083-084-095-272015-
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN WASHINGTON...TWIGGS...WILKINSON...BALDWIN...HANCOCK AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES WEST OF SHOULDERBONE TO BONAIRE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WASHINGTON...TWIGGS...WILKINSON...BALDWIN...HANCOCK AND
HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE IVEY...ALLENTOWN...GORDON...DISTRICT PATH...
RIPLEY...TARVERSVILLE...MYRICKS MILL...FITZPATRICK...DANVILLE...
JEFFERSONVILLE...ALLENWOOD...HARDWICK...SCOTTSBORO...UNDERWOOD AND
PANCRAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 8376 3270 8353 3279 8337 3326 8325
      3326 8323 3328 8323 3331 8315 3334 8314
      3336 8316 3347 8301 3345 8299 3344 8291
      3322 8289 3296 8298 3263 8313 3251 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 238DEG 13KT 3332 8315 3311 8310
          3282 8323 3270 8332 3257 8358