Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH GA ALL DAY...AND MODELS
NOT HANDLING THIS WELL. FINALLY SEEMS TO BE SOME DIMINISHING ON THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN AND IT MAY BE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. WILL PLAN ON
DIMINISHING ALL RAIN GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS TO THE EAST. CENTRAL GA MAY BE ON THE FRINGE OF SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
CWA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014/
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND IN TERMS OF
THE TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THESE VALUES WOULD BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR MID TO LATE MAY...IT WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. BY FRIDAY THOUGH...THE RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE AREA AND WITH A BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHWARD...COULD SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAFS SITES SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COLUMBUS TO MACON AREA THAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED
BY DIURNAL HEATING. MVFR AND SOME IFR EXPECTED IN THE RAIN
AREAS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ALSO BUT IMPROVING BY 15Z
MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EAST 5 TO 8KT ON MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  75  55  82 /  30  10   0   0
ATLANTA         54  75  60  82 /  30  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     44  72  50  76 /  10   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  75  56  84 /  20  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        59  80  61  85 /  30  10   0   0
GAINESVILLE     52  73  57  79 /  20  10   0   0
MACON           56  80  57  85 /  30  10   0   0
ROME            49  76  56  85 /  20  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  52  77  57  83 /  30  10   0   0
VIDALIA         60  80  60  84 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...41

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
540 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

GAZ079-182215-
540 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALBOTTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TALBOT
COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE TALBOTTON...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS...JUNCTION CITY...
BALDWINVILLE AND PRATTSBURG.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 8461 3277 8456 3273 8434 3268 8434
      3268 8436 3265 8437 3265 8438 3264 8437
      3261 8441 3258 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 289DEG 25KT 3269 8451

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

GAZ080-182245-
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HOWARD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TAYLOR
COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE HOWARD...WESLEY CHURCH...CARSONVILLE...BUTLER...FICKLING
MILL...POTTERVILLE AND REYNOLDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 8440 3260 8441 3268 8436 3268 8434
      3272 8434 3272 8431 3266 8409 3264 8406
      3259 8407 3254 8402 3252 8405 3252 8403
      3251 8404 3251 8411 3246 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 290DEG 23KT 3263 8436