Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING SPRING STORM SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...PWS 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES...
TRANSPORTING NORTH OVER AL. CONTINUOUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER AL TODAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST...DUE MAINLY
TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL COULD NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND FORECAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND THE NORTH
MOVEMENT OF THE TSTMS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST THROUGH GA ON THURSDAY THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ON MOST FIELDS.

16

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXITING STAGE RIGHT. STILL FEEL THIS COULD A BIT SLOWER THAN MODEL
PROJECTIONS SO DO HOLD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
SECONDARY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED THIS TIME
BY A VERY COLD CORE UPPER LOW WITH 500MB TEMPS FALLING TO -22C FOR
THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS CASES OF THESE IN THE PAST
PRODUCING A HAIL/GRAUPEL COMBINATION AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IN THIS CASE AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WE GET JUST ENOUGH
HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO ESTABLISH SOME LOW LEVEL CAPE. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES THUNDER TO GO ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE SHRA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT IN STORE WITH MORNING LOW
FRI AND SAT MORNING FLIRTING WITH THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE
COLDER LOCATIONS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WE DO TRANSITION
BACK TO MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TYPE PATTERN WITH A WARM UP LOOKING
LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER THE AREA...ZONAL FLOW WILL
BRING A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES TO THE AREA. BEST OF
THESE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SAT MORNING AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN MEAGER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LEVELS...HAVE OPTED TO GO LOW END CHANCE FOR NOW WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

DEESE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME NORTH GA
COUNTIES AND ALONG THE TN VALLEY DIVIDE. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN THIS
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY
ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND WILL PREVAIL NEAR 10 KTS PRIOR TO FROPA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS AND TIMING.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  68  48  73 /  90  80  10  10
ATLANTA         59  66  47  70 /  90  70  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     61  65  43  65 /  90  90  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  66  45  70 /  90  70  10  10
COLUMBUS        62  69  49  74 /  80  60  10  10
GAINESVILLE     62  66  47  69 /  90  80  10  10
MACON           67  72  48  75 /  90  80   5  10
ROME            61  66  45  70 /  90  60  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  59  66  43  71 /  80  70  10  10
VIDALIA         70  76  55  77 /  90  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1040 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1040 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
   GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...

IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WEST
GEORGIA WEST OF MCN TO BLUE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGER CONCERN AS AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THIS EVENT
DRAWS TO AN END THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE THESE AREAS WERE
LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY RECENT STORM SYSTEMS...NO FLOOD WATCH IS
ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. AREAWIDE...WILL STILL
SEE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND PROBLEMS IN THE NORMALLY POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS SO CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN TRAVELING LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...

A COLD CORE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA. SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

GAZ102-142000-
325 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN STEWART COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PROVIDENCE CANYON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS STEWART COUNTY...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND WESTVILLE...TROUTMAN...PROVIDENCE CANYON STATE
PARK...FLORENCE MARINA STATE
PARK...SANFORD...LUMPKIN...OMAHA...CHARLES...LOUVALE AND BROOKLYN.
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8492 3195 8497 3197 8497 3197 8504
      3200 8507 3201 8506 3214 8506 3219 8501
      3220 8498 3221 8498 3223 8497 3219 8466
      3192 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 197DEG 25KT 3206 8486

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