Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT RAINY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS LARGE PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVE SEEN WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
4 OR MORE INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATL METRO AND GREATER COLUMBUS
AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN GA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...RIVERS AND CREEKS
CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO THE RUNOFF...AND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A
CONCERN. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT AS FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. THE TORNADO WATCH FOR TODAY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A TORNADO THREAT HAS
MOVED OUTSIDE THE CWA.

ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS INITIATED
BEHIND THIS MAIN PRECIP AREA /ACROSS EASTERN AL AND NORTHERN
GA/...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BACK IN WESTERN AL. WITH A HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE NOSING
INTO THE AREA FROM AL...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THIS NEW
CONVECTION TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO RULE OUT A POSSIBLE
TORNADO IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION...THEN DIMINISHING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE THUNDER
IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...AS
NONE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS CLEARLY BEEN SKILLFUL WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

31

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A LESS ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. ZONAL
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. NEXT
RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS MODELS BRING ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

31/39

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DEGRADING AGAIN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. IMMEDIATE TS CONCERN ONLY FOR
MCN AS MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA...NEW DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. ISOLATED TS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW 19-21Z AND THEN TO THE NW BY 02-04Z. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW END GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING. SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  65  45  69 /  60  20  20  10
ATLANTA         47  62  48  67 /  40  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  60  41  63 /  40  20  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    45  63  44  67 /  30  30  30   5
COLUMBUS        51  67  48  69 /  40  20  30   5
GAINESVILLE     47  63  47  67 /  50  20  20  10
MACON           53  67  45  72 /  70  20  20   5
ROME            45  64  43  69 /  30  30  50   5
PEACHTREE CITY  46  64  44  67 /  40  20  30   5
VIDALIA         57  68  50  72 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON... NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31

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