Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. OVERALL
MODELS STILL CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
AREA...AND FORECAST IS SKEWED TOWARDS HRRR AND LOCAL WRF FOR TIMING
OF THE FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA. ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE THROUGH THE ATL AREA 08-11Z...AND THROUGH THE MCN
AREA BY 11-13Z.

SEVERE POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO ISSUE SVR TSTM WATCH THROUGH SUNRISE. NAM
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHER MUCAPE VALUES...WITH THE GFS STILL
AROUND 300-400J/KG AND MODELED LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL IN THE 45-50KT
RANGE. OVERALL THE TORNADO THREAT IS MARGINAL AND IS EXPECTED
GRADUALLY LESSON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THAT BEING
SAID...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. A TORNADO
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 10Z FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. SOME ROTATION
HAS BEEN NOTED /ALBEIT BROAD/ IN THESE STORMS AS THEY HAVE MOVED
INTO THE STATE.

AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...THE THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY DROPS OFF
QUICKLY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL ALSO DIMINISH INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE DAMAGING WINDS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION COULD BRING DOWN ALREADY WEAKENED
TREES ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE FROM THE RECENT ICE STORM.

QPF OF 1-1.25 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA COULD RESULT IN QUICKLY RISING CREEKS AND RIVERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DRY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING.

31

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LONG
TERM. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW
INTERACTS WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS RETURNING TO THE STATE
MONDAY. BY MID WEEK...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE
STATE INTERACTS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUST CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

39

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH DEGRADING CIGS AND VSBYS ACCOMPANYING THE
TSRA. HAVE TIMED THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE ATL AREA BY 10Z...AND
THE MCN AND AHN AREAS BY AROUND 12Z. S-SW GUSTY WINDS /15G25KT OR
SO/ WILL BECOME NW AT 13-15KT GUSTS TO 22-25KT BEHIND THE LINE.
EXPECT HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS WITH THE POST-TSRA LIGHT
RAIN...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND VFR BY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  36  68  40 / 100   5   5  10
ATLANTA         61  39  66  43 /  80   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  32  63  36 /  70   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    61  32  66  38 /  60   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        63  39  67  41 / 100   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     62  38  65  40 / 100   5   5  10
MACON           64  34  68  40 / 100   5   5  10
ROME            60  31  65  36 /  40   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  30  66  36 /  90   5   5  10
VIDALIA         68  45  70  46 / 100  10   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...GWINNETT...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...MARION...MERIWETHER...MUSCOGEE...NORTH
FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TROUP...
UPSON...WEBSTER.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
HALL...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
208 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
208 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

DAMAGING WINDS FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED... THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AMERICUS TO MCDONOUGH TO GAINESVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 AM THIS
MORNING.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVE EAST OF YOUR LOCATION... THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL HAVE ENDED. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE... NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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