Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
CONTINUING TO CLEAR COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCHES ONCE THE LINE
PUSHES EAST OF THE COUNTIES. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY DUE TO DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNRISE HAVE
WARRANTED PLACING THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL GA COUNTIES IN A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS STILL SEEM TO
BE THE MAIN STORM THREAT ALONG THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... WE JUST CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TOR DUE TO THE
STRONG WIND SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE. CONTINUED TO STAY TUNED FOR
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 436 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ADVERTISED... A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WEST
GA THIS MORNING... AND PROGGD TO PUSH TO NEAR AN ATLANTA TO MACON
LINE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM... THEN ACROSS EAST GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE OF
STORMS PUSHES EAST THIS MORNING... AN ISOLATED BURST OF POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THROUGH IS THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH FOR EAST GA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS... AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS
CONCERN HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING. ALL THESE THREATS
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES EAST OF YOUR
AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF FLASH FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS DO SHOW A SECOND LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT... AND THIS WOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON IF DEVELOPS. AT THIS TIME... THE ONLY THREAT EXPECTED
WITH THIS SECOND DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ISOLATED BURST OF STRONG
WINDS.

WILL KEEP A WIND ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE... THE EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES... WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT... ALTHO THIS MAY BE TRICKY WITH WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND COOL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

39

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT LIFTING UPPER LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO FORECAST AREA
TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND... BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. GENERALLY DRY FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ATWELL

HYDROLOGY...
EARLY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA... WITH 1-1.5 FROM THE SE ATL METRO AREA THROUGH
MACON... AND BELOW 1 INCH FURTHER SE. THIS RAINFALL OVER AN
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL MAKE THE AREA PRIME FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING ISSUES TODAY. THEREFORE... WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. SITE SPECIFIC
MODELS INDICATE THAT WITH THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP...SEVERAL
RIVERS COULD SEE BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE CONASAUGA RIVER AND LOOKOUT CREEK BASINS.

31/39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN THE RAIN
SHIELD...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE
MORNING. RADAR TIMING TOOL AND HIRES MODELS INDICATED A SECOND LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 16-19Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. OTHERWISE... MVFR CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD AND SHORTLY AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 21-23Z TODAY. THEN WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 06-07Z TONIGHT.
THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY 15Z WED. CURRENT SSE
WINDS AROUND 10G15KTS WILL VEER SSW BY MID-LATE MORNING... THEN WEST
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WEST WINDS
AROUND 6-8KTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND ON WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  53  69  51 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         73  55  67  53 / 100  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     70  50  62  48 / 100  60  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  52  67  50 / 100  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        75  52  74  54 / 100  20  10   0
GAINESVILLE     73  52  66  51 / 100  50  30  10
MACON           77  53  75  51 / 100  60  10   5
ROME            72  52  67  51 / 100  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  73  51  69  50 / 100  20  20   5
VIDALIA         78  62  77  54 / 100  80  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...TALIAFERRO...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILKES.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...GREENE...HALL...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...
MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...TELFAIR...
TWIGGS...WALTON...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
546 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...

THE SQUALL LINE FROM ATLANTA TO MACON IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
EAST GEORGIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THE LINE TO
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW BRIEF...GENERALLY WEAK
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE OR IN CELLS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

A SECOND LINE OF STORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...AND THIS WOULD PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM. AT THIS TIME... THE ONLY THREAT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ISOLATED STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

GAZ060-061-073-074-084-141130-
700 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WASHINGTON...
PUTNAM...WILKINSON...BALDWIN AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EDT...

AT 659 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNDERWOOD TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NICKLESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
WASHINGTON...PUTNAM...WILKINSON...BALDWIN AND HANCOCK COUNTIES
THROUGH 730 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE MCINTYRE...IRWINTON...HARDWICK...SCOTTSBORO...
MILLEDGEVILLE...UNDERWOOD...NICKLESVILLE...TOOMSBORO...HEBRON...
BEULAH...DEVEREUX...OCONEE...DEEPSTEP...LINTON AND SPARTA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 8288 3276 8295 3272 8295 3270 8298
      3259 8321 3321 8327 3344 8290 3310 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1101Z 232DEG 36KT 3323 8321 3289 8315
          3261 8316

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

GAZ038-039-050-051-061-062-074-075-097-141215-
727 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WILKES...
WASHINGTON...WARREN...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE...LAURENS...GLASCOCK...
GREENE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM EDT...

AT 725 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARNOLDSVILLE TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF OCONEE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WILKES...
WASHINGTON...WARREN...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE...LAURENS...GLASCOCK...
GREENE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HEBRON...DEEPSTEP...SPRINGFIELD...
LINTON...SPARTA...WOODVILLE...WHITE PLAINS...UNION POINT...SILOAM...
STEPHENS...MAXEYS...HUTCHINGS...ARNOLDSVILLE...JACKSONVILLE AND
OCONEE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 8249 3317 8259 3312 8258 3312 8266
      3302 8258 3276 8295 3271 8295 3283 8297
      3286 8303 3340 8303 3392 8326 3405 8313
      3401 8305 3405 8297 3398 8279 3399 8265
      3366 8249 3360 8264 3336 8254 3334 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1127Z 223DEG 39KT 3392 8322 3346 8295
          3273 8299

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MILTON                  34.13N  84.30W
10/14/2014                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON TWO HOUSES. THE
            STREETS AFFECTED WERE HARRIS AND RUCKER ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400904

GEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
757 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W DAWSONVILLE         34.42N  84.14W
10/14/2014                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN...SOME ON POWER
            LINES. THE ROADS AFFECTED WERE SR53 AND SR136.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400905

GEO