Freeze Watch 5, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

.UDPATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/TEMPS/POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LESS
CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
FORECAST. SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EXPECTED TO AFFECT
CENTRAL GA LATER AND HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE START OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH STRONG LATE SEASON HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASING EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. NORTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S WHILE MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY
BELOW FREEZING. WHILE ELEVATED WIND FLOW MAY CURB TEMPERATURE
DROPS DUE TO LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP
FREEZE WARNING AS IS AS WIND SHELTERED AREAS OUTSIDE THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND BUILD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
CREATE SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA. SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GET TODAY WITH THE GFS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE NAMDNG5 SHOWING HEALTHY POPS FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER. WILL BLEND BU FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTION AND
ONLY GO ISOLATED POPS TODAY.

SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL SCALE EAST
COAST TROUGH BY TONIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO DISTINCT PRECIP
CORES...ONE WITH THE ACTUAL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS
OWN MOISTURE WITH IT AND THE SECOND BEING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS VERY
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA AND WILL ONLY GO LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW BEFORE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SCOURS THINGS OUT
NICELY.

THICKNESSES STILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO A LIGHT RASN MIX FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIP BEGINS TO EXIT REGION AND
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATE
WEEK PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC ARE STILL NOTICEABLY
STRONGER WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AND A
SOMEWHAT DRIER FINISH. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A COLD START TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BEHIND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEEP
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICK RECOVERY OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER
THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
AMPLE MOISTURE BACK NORTH BY FRIDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE.
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BETTER SHEAR IS EVIDENT FRIDAY HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS
MODERATE AT BEST WHILE MODEL INSTABILITY IS HIGHER SATURDAY BUT
BETTER SHEAR HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR MARGINAL RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS IS SOME
QUESTION TO CIG HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT 2 SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALSO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTH AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THOSE CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES. ALL PRECIP SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA AND
ALSO SOUTH OF THE CSG/MCN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING. THEN AS STRONG CAA MOVES INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL CIGS TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  40  56  28 /   5  20  20   0
ATLANTA         58  41  54  32 /   5  20  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  35  48  26 /   5  40  20   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  37  55  27 /   5  30  10   0
COLUMBUS        64  43  62  34 /   5  20  10   0
GAINESVILLE     57  39  55  31 /   5  30  10   0
MACON           62  40  61  30 /   5  20  10   0
ROME            60  35  55  27 /   5  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  37  56  29 /   5  20  10   0
VIDALIA         62  46  63  34 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1202 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1202 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.

A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
WEEK LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.