Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
715 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE... /SVR WATCH 557 EXTENSION INTO BEXAR...ATASCOSA/
A PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE IS QUICKLY SHIFTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
INTO THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. APEX OF A CURVED SQUALL LINE
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CELL
MERGERS AS NEW CONVECTION FORMS EAST OF THE LINE. CELL MERGERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF ATASCOSA COUNTY BY 8 PM.
EXPECT TO SEE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS TAKE SHAPE ONCE THE
MERGED CELLS MOVE EAST OF I-35...WITH DECREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL
BY 10 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE... /ISSUANCE OF FFA/
WITH THE MAJORITY OF HI-RES MODELS INDICATING LARGE AREAS OF 1-2
INCH RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A SAN ANTONIO TO HALLETTSVILLE
LINE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH 9
PM OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY INTO AUSTIN METRO WITH SOME
TRAINING CELLS INCREASING FROM LAKE MEDINA TO BURNET. AFTER 9 PM...THE
FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF I-35. LCRA
HYDROMET INDICATES SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN STILL WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS OVER AREAS IN THE PATHS OF
NEW CONVECTION. ISOLATED MINOR RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS ARE UNLIKELY. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TREND TOWARD MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING AWAY FROM DRT AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR TSRA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
LOWER CIGS/VIS TO MVFR. SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS WILL BE VFR AND RAIN
FREE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSRA
TO LOWER CIGS/VIS TO IFR BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 05Z. AT AUS CIGS
ARE IFR AND THERE WILL BE SHRA/TSRA AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING. BY 06Z CONVECTION SHOULD END AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO (NORTHEAST MEXICO) IS FORECAST TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR AND TECH-TECH HIRES MODELS DEVELOP AN MCS AROUND 23Z/5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AHEAD OF A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE (WARM SECTOR). IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROCKSPRINGS TO HONDO TO
PEARSALL LINE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM TONIGHT FOR THE AREA ABOVE MENTIONED. MAIN WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. SOME OF THESE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNSPOURS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR.
THE MCS IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOVE EAST IN A
LINEAR FASHION...AFFECTING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 8 OR 9 PM THIS
EVENING. BY 9 PM...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCER WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 2 OR 3 AM SUNDAY. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN ISOLATED
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE PRETTY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  78  45  64  40 /  60   0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  77  43  64  37 /  70   0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     55  79  45  66  40 /  60   0  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  75  42  62  38 /  50   0  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  78  46  65  38 /  30   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  75  43  62  38 /  60   0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             49  77  42  65  37 /  50   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        53  78  44  65  39 /  70   0  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  78  46  64  40 /  90   0  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  78  46  66  41 /  50   0  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  79  46  66  41 /  60   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-240030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
629 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WEST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO PLEASANTON LINE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS EVENING. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN
ANTONIO TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

MAKE SURE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY DURING THIS POTENTIAL
SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WEATHER EPISODE. MAKE SURE TO PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR
TRUSTED WEATHER SOURCES...MAKE SURE BATTERIES ARE FRESH IN WEATHER
RADIOS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IF OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ186-187-189-203>206-218>220-230200-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BEXAR-COMAL-FRIO-KENDALL-KERR-MEDINA-UVALDE-ZAVALA-
654 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...
NORTHEASTERN ZAVALA...NORTHERN FRIO...EXTREME WESTERN COMAL...
BANDERA...WESTERN BEXAR...EASTERN UVALDE...MEDINA...SOUTHEASTERN KERR
AND KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...

AT 650 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
KERRVILLE STATE PARK TO BANDERA TO QUIHI TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRIO
TOWN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOMA VISTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CASTROVILLE...
  COMFORT...
  DEVINE...
  BOERNE...
  PEARSALL...
  DUNLAY...
  YANCEY...
  FRIO TOWN...
  BADER...
  CENTER POINT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3005 9861 2952 9850 2909 9859 2880 9921
      2883 9973 3004 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 268DEG 20KT 2996 9911 2968 9905
          2936 9901 2910 9921 2885 9966

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
702 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRYSTAL CITY            28.69N  99.83W
11/22/2014  E68 MPH          ZAVALA             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400712

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             CRYSTAL CITY            28.69N  99.83W
11/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       ZAVALA             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400713

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             4 SE EAGLE PASS         28.67N 100.44W
11/22/2014  E1.25 INCH       MAVERICK           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON FM 1021 SE OF EAGLE
            PASS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400714

BF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
716 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ189-205-206-230215-
BEXAR-COMAL-KENDALL-
716 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COMAL...NORTHERN BEXAR
AND SOUTHERN KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CST...

AT 715 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE DOMINION...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BOERNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOLLYWOOD PARK...
  TIMBERWOOD PARK...
  BULVERDE...
  SMITHSON VALLEY...
  SPRING BRANCH...
  HILL COUNTRY VILLAGE...
  SPECHT STORE...
  ANHALT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2995 9837 2967 9817 2955 9863 2971 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 237DEG 17KT 2967 9859

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
721 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ186-187-189-204>207-218>221-228-230215-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BEXAR-COMAL-DIMMIT-FRIO-GUADALUPE-KENDALL-KERR-
MEDINA-WILSON-ZAVALA-
721 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...
SOUTHEASTERN ZAVALA...FRIO...WESTERN COMAL...EASTERN BANDERA...
BEXAR...EXTREME WESTERN WILSON...EASTERN MEDINA...SOUTHEASTERN
KERR...SOUTHERN KENDALL...EXTREME WESTERN GUADALUPE AND NORTHEASTERN
DIMMIT COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CST...

AT 720 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COMFORT TO RIO
MEDINA TO NATALIA TO BRUNDAGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PEARSALL...
  BOERNE...
  DILLEY...
  POTEET...
  SAN ANTONIO...
  CHARLOTTE...
  UNIVERSAL CITY...
  LACOSTE...
  LYTLE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2856 9977 2866 9978 2888 9952 2908 9917
      3000 9903 3001 9849 2985 9833 2936 9823
      2911 9841 2866 9879 2863 9909 2864 9938
      2860 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 279DEG 23KT 2992 9891 2948 9886
          2914 9881 2859 9965