Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FARTHER WEST AT KDRT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEAR AS A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEST LIFT/UPPER DYNAMIC IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND
ABOUT TO CROSS THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRIO MOUNTAINS(NORTHEAST
MEXICO). THIS AREA OF BEST UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
THIS COULD ENHANCE STORMS DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERITY. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITH NO BREAKS ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY....STILL LARGE HAIL AND DAMIGING GUST WINDS.
CAN'T RULE OUT AND ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...LATEST HIRES MODELS
AND AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PWATS OF 1.37 TO 1.48
INCHES. THESE NUMBERS ARE ABOVE THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY OVER SOME AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME TO
CASTROVILLE TO CAMPBELLTON LINE. AS OF NOW...ISOLATED RAIN RATES
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOURS ARE BEING DETECTED BY EWX RADAR OVER
GILLESPIE AND BLANCO COUNTIES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE
EAST. EXPECT LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS AREA
ROADS/HIGHWAYS/UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
THE KDRT UPPER AIR SOUNDING JUST CAME IN AND IS SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A LIFTING CAP. THIS CAP
SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE SHORTLY AS LIFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE SOUNDING ARE PUSHING 9
C/KM. THE 500 TEMPERATURE COOLED FROM -12C TO -17C IN JUST 12
HOURS. WE ARE GETTING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL FROM ANY STORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED AND
SUSTAINED. ANOTHER CONCERNING CHANGE IS REDEVELOPMENT SHOWING UP
ON THE HRRR. THE HRRR IS OUT NOW TO 1Z AND IS SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z. THIS WAS SHOWN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE NAM...BUT NOW THAT THERE IS SUPPORT
FROM THE HRRR THERE MAY BE SOMETHING TO IT. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
INCREASE POPS AFTER 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER
ASPECT TO THIS IS IF WE GET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...FORECASTED
RAIN TOTALS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. UPDATED THE HWO TO MENTION
ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MAINLY THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR LATE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

BEGINNING 18Z AND LASTING THROUGH 03Z...POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS OFF AND ON. INCLUDED +TSRA
WITH IFR VIS TO ENCOMPASS THE MAIN IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY BUT MAY DIP TO IFR
DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS. EXPECT THESE IMPACTS TO EXIT
QUICKLY FROM THE AREA AFTER 03Z. THEN VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

NOTE FOR KDRT...MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY NEAR 00Z. THIS IS A RECENT BUT CONSISTENT
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS SO INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE JET IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS
IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE FORCING IS SHOWN BY THE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
ARE OVERSPREADING WEST TEXAS. THE MAIN UPPER FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE
TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER FOCUS FOR LIFT
ARRIVES...WE SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE TO SEE THIS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LIFT ARRIVES. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. CAPE VALUES WILL DROP
OFF TO 1000 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO WEAK SUPERCELLS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN THE AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ONCE
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY END UP
BEING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY TO REALIZE THE PEAK CAPE VALUES. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE
CWA THAT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 03Z. THE
SHERB PARAMETER WHICH IS DECENT IN PICKING UP SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS /EASTERN ZONES/ IS LESS
THAN WHAT WAS FORECASTED YESTERDAY...BUT IS STILL NEAR THE
THRESHOLD TO SUPPORT THE NOTION FOR SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OUT OF ANY LINE SEGMENTS WHICH FORM WITHIN THE LARGE MASS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INITIALLY...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD
BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE CONVECTION FROM ANY POSSIBLE LINE
SEGMENTS IN THE EASTERN ZONES. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT LOW WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCATED.

PW VALUES WILL RISE UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THESE MENTIONED AREAS. WPC DAY 1 QPF
VALUES RANGE FROM NEAR 1/4 OF AN INCH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR
2 INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 3Z OR 9 PM.
WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY GIVING US A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS USUALLY LEADS TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
SHOULD BE PRETTY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S/40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  55  78  45  64 / 100  60   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  54  77  43  64 / 100  70   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  55  79  45  66 /  90  60   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  52  75  42  62 / 100  50   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  50  78  46  65 /  40  20   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  54  75  43  62 / 100  60   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  49  77  42  65 /  70  50   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  53  78  44  65 /  90  70   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  57  78  46  64 /  90  90   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  54  78  46  66 /  80  60   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  54  79  46  66 /  80  60   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ191-192-205>208-221830-
BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-GUADALUPE-HAYS-TRAVIS-
1150 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COMAL...NORTHEASTERN
BEXAR...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHWESTERN TRAVIS...HAYS AND
NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1148 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CIBOLO...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEW BRAUNFELS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW BRAUNFELS...
  CANYON LAKE DAM...
  SAN MARCOS...
  WIMBERLEY...
  DRIPPING SPRINGS...
  TANGLEWOOD FOREST...
  AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...
  ZORN...
  WOODCREEK...
  KYLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...AREA ROADS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3033 9812 3018 9757 2953 9812 2958 9839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 210DEG 24KT 2965 9819

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ223-224-221845-
DE WITT-GONZALES-
1202 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GONZALES AND NORTHERN
DEWITT COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CST...

AT 1157 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF WESTHOFF...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF
YORKTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GONZALES...
  WESTHOFF...
  CHEAPSIDE...
  SAMPLE...
  WRIGHTSBORO...
  HAMON...
  COST...
  GLAZE CITY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...AREA ROADS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2960 9752 2942 9724 2914 9752 2919 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 207DEG 16KT 2921 9755

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ223>225-221930-
DE WITT-GONZALES-LAVACA-
1228 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAVACA...SOUTHEASTERN
GONZALES AND DEWITT COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST...

AT 1227 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WESTHOFF TO
WEESATCHE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CUERO...
  SHINER...
  YOAKUM...
  CHEAPSIDE...
  HOCHHEIM...
  MEYERSVILLE...
  HAMON...
  ARNECKVILLE...
  GLAZE CITY...
  DILWORTH...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2889 9737 2892 9742 2881 9758 2923 9761
      2963 9724 2914 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 206DEG 19KT 2923 9740 2885 9749