Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS IS GENERATING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF KDRT. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AFFECT
KDRT WITH HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH STORMS INTENSITY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...I-35 SITES WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO ABOUT 16Z-17Z
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREA TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN
BORDER. THIS FEATURE WAS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN MID-LATITUDE FLOW
WHICH HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THE SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S. THE OVERNIGHT MCV STILL HAS LIFE AND IS DRIFTING
TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORT RANGE FORECAST
MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING. FORECAST
PW IS ABOVE TWO INCHES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH ANY STORMS TONIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THIS AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
FILL DURING THIS PERIOD AND POPS WILL SHRINK TO THE WEST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO FILL. BY SUNDAY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST AND END RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT WILL
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. BY TUESDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  93  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  93  73  93  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  93  74  93  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  89  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  91  76  94  76 /  50  40  30  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  92  73  92  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  92  74  94  73 /  40  20  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  93  74  92  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  93  75  93  75 /  10  20  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  75  93  74 /  30  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  93  76  94  75 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-201130-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
619 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY DIMMIT AND SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AREAS WEST OF I 35, ESPECIALLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LOW CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN WITH NUISANCE STREET AND LOW LYING FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
729 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     FLASH FLOOD      QUEMADO                 28.95N 100.63W
06/19/2014                   MAVERICK           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOOD WATER ENTERING HOMES IN QUEMADO. FM1908 EAST OF
            QUEMADO CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400578

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
731 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

TXZ202-217-200130-
KINNEY-MAVERICK-
731 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAVERICK AND SOUTHERN KINNEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 722 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR NORMANDY...OR NEAR
QUEMADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SPOFFORD...
  BRACKETTVILLE...
  DARLING...
  ANACACHO...
  STANDART...

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2891 10065 2894 10066 2901 10066 2904 10068
      2939 10062 2924 10016 2884 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 211DEG 11KT 2895 10057