Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND THE TERMINALS. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT KAUS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF
RAIN AND THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE DECREASING. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS NUMERICAL MODELS...IN ADDITION TO THE WRF
SIMULATED SATELLITE HINT AT A DECK OF CLOUDS COMING IN BETWEEN THE
CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND THE WEAK FRONT TO THE WEST. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS (8-12Z) AT THE
I-35 TAF SITES. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11-13Z CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. KDRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER.
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE... SEE NO
REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING. HOWEVER...HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS AND WHERE SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MAY TRACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. NO RAIN AND A
WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
BUILDS IT INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS
KEEP IT OVER MEXICO. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND ALONG
A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EVEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAVGEM
SHOW A DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SILENT 10S AND KEEP
MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD THE ECMWF...THEN POPS WOULD LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  91  68  95  75 /  30  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  91  66  94  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  92  67  95  73 /  30  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  66  92  71 /  30  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  98  74 103  77 /  20  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  88  67  93  74 /  30  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  95  69  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  67  94  73 /  30  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  91  69  93  75 /  40  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  93  70  96  75 /  30  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  95  70  97  75 /  30  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1040 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-110345-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1040 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COUPLED WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TXZ209-225-100630-
FAYETTE-LAVACA-
1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAVACA AND SOUTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1238 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCHULENBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DUBINA...
  HOLMAN...
  ELLINGER...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2981 9669 2964 9686 2959 9683 2959 9680
      2954 9674 2951 9674 2966 9701 2987 9691
      2985 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 292DEG 18KT 2972 9686

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