Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
944 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ALL STORMS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. STRONG STORMS ARE
SOUTHWEST OF LOCKHART AND SOUTHWEST OF BERTRAM. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE. ALTHOUGH...A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE AIRMASS IS
STABILIZING WITH SUNSET AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AND HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

AVIATION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER CONTINUES TO
MOVE SE THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
I-35 SITES AS CONVECTION HAS FORMED AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY AT
KAUS AND KSAT. MAY BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN AREA WIDE AFTER 07Z. AFTER 09Z LIKELY TO SEE IFR
CIGS THROUGH 15Z ALONG WITH SOME FOG. WILL RETURN TO MVFR CIGS
AFTER 15Z THEN BACK TO VFR AFTER 17Z-19Z. WINDS LIKELY TO BE
EASTERLY THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THEN AFTER 13Z-15Z WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS...THEN BACK TO EASTERLY AFTER 20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ISSUE TORNADO WATCH AND INCLUDE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...
IN ADDITION TO BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION THERE IS AMPLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHERE SKIES CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM FREDERICKSBURG TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO HALLETTSVILLE UNTIL 11 PM
THIS EVENING. WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
TO INCLUDE TRAVIS COUNTY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA. THIS WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO REDEVELOP WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT WITH
ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LLANO...
BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...THE WIND SHEAR LOOKS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH A
WESTERLY JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING
INTO OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE FIELD IS
SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW LEVEL AIR IS STILL VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MORNING SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WITH PWS DOWN ABOUT 0.5 INCHES FROM 24 HOURS AGO AT
BOTH DRT AND CRP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS
HAPPENS WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST. WITH PW DOWN... DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL MEAN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WILL SEND ANOTHER AFD TO COVER LONG TERM SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  86  69  89  69 /  40  10  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  85  67  88  67 /  40  10  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  88  67  89  67 /  30  10  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  84  66  86  67 /  40  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  95  71  94  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  84  69  86  69 /  40  10  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  67  88  67 /  40  10  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  69  87  69 /  40  40  10  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       69  89  70  90  70 /  30  10  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  91  70  92  70 /  20  10  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
958 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-290300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
958 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE LOCAL FLOODING
OR STANDING WATER ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND POORLY DRAINED
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             2 ESE LAKEWAY           30.36N  97.95W
05/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       TRAVIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400527

SBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
959 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ173-192-280345-
TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
959 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON AND
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 955 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF SMITHWICK...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
BERTRAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CEDAR PARK...
  LAGO VISTA...
  LEANDER...
  JONESTOWN...
  U.S. HIGHWAY 183...
  FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1431...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3056 9771 3035 9790 3054 9809 3066 9802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 306DEG 18KT 3058 9802

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