Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NW FLOW EVENT IS PANNING OUT VERY CLOSE TO
HIGHER RES MODEL PREDICTIONS WITH SOME EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TRIGGERED ALONG AND OF HWY 90 AND W OF SAN ANTONIO.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8 DEG/KM AS SEEN ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE DEPICTS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
POTENTIAL APPROACHING 1 INCH AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE LIMITED IN AREAS WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE HIGHER
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO JUST A FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE CAPABLE OF
LINGERING INTO LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35.

THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS EAST OF CENTRAL TX IS
EXPECTED TO CRANK UP LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL MIX STRONG GUSTS TO
THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL TX FROM 9 AM THE 3 PM. A HIGH MIXING DAY
FOR TUESDAY MEANS THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MIX SOME OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS TO THE SURFACE FARTHER WEST...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...DESPITE A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF I-35. COOL AIR REINFORCEMENT
KEEPS NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THE DRY AIR REGIME...WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY
STEEPEN OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN THE AFTERNOON TO CREATE MORE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE RECOVERY RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY...AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES INCREASE TO BRING MORE MOISTURE
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TIMING IS
STILL VAGUE AND INCONSISTENT AMONG MODEL RUNS SO WILL NEED A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE CONVECTION STRENGTH AND RAIN POTENTIAL CAN
BE ASSESSED. MORNING LOWS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              48  76  49  79  54 /  30   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  75  41  79  51 /  30   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     48  77  44  80  52 /  40   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  74  48  79  54 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  82  53  86  56 /  20  -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        47  74  47  78  53 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  81  45  84  54 /  30   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  76  42  79  51 /  30   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  74  45  77  52 /  30   0  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  78  50  81  55 /  40   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  80  48  82  55 /  40   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-081015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
515 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO HALF AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.

THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL
BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

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