Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
947 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH AND HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND HAS MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE CWA AFTER 8Z. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SEVERE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING INHIBITION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THE HEAVIER STORMS...BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE BECOMING A FASTER AS
COMPLEX BECOMES DOMINATED BY COLD POOLS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK
UP OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATE
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS OVERTAKEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
AS WELL...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
MAY ONLY AFFECT KDRT...BUT THE CHANCES ARE SMALL SO ONLY USED
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATED A
SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE I-35 SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT IS LAGGING...ONLY KEPT
MENTION OF THIS IN THE KAUS TAF BUT NOT FOR KSAT/KSSF. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MVFR STRATUS AGAIN FROM ROUGHLY 07-14Z...THEN VFR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSRA FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE IT FOR THE I-35 SITES IN FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER ROUGHLY A PANDALE TO JUNCTION TO LLANO LINE
AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A BROADER SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO ENHANCE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH RES
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS DROPPING S/E FROM
NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL TX LATER THIS EVENING. CAPES AT OR ABOVE
4000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS
TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...A
FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY BEING BOOSTED BY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THAT WOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SECONDARY...AS PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS OVER 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR THE FORMATION OF AN MCS. THIS OPINION
IS FORMED BASED ON THE SPORADIC LOCATIONS OF THE 850 MB THETA-E
FIELDS WHICH SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST.

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY DOWNPOURS EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
BEFORE STABILITY ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
AND COULD BE TROUBLESOME ON POPS AND TEMPS IN THE LATER PERIODS.
THE NARROWNESS OF THE RIDGE MEANS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE CRISTINA COULD GET ENTRAINED INTO
THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALREADY APPEAR TO BE HEDGING
THEIR BETS WITH THE ECMWF MID LEVEL PATTERNS LOOKING VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH TX IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A CANADIAN/GFS BLEND IS PREFERRED FOR NOW SO AS NOT TO STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND KEEP
US DRY. BLENDED GUIDANCES WERE ADOPTED FOR TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE THROWN IN FOR MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CLIMATE...
DRT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
DATE  HIGH YEAR
06/12 106  2001
06/13 105  1960

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  91  73  92  72 /  70  20  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  90  71  92  71 /  70  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  92  72  93  72 /  70  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  88  71  90  70 /  70  20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  99  76 100  76 /  20  10  10  -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  88  71  90  71 /  70  20  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  94  73  95  72 /  70  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  72 /  70  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  91  73  92  73 /  70  30  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  93  74  93  73 /  70  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  94  74  95  74 /  70  20  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-140300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
950 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THOUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
938 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N BERTRAM             30.81N  98.06W
06/12/2014                   BURNET             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND DAMGE TO A HOME. OFF OF HIGHWAY
            1174 NEAR JOPPA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400550

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE ROUND MOUNTAIN     30.48N  98.32W
06/12/2014  M66 MPH          BLANCO             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            66 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400551

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
943 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SW LEANDER            30.54N  97.88W
06/12/2014                   TRAVIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS SEEN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400552

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
946 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S UVALDE              29.20N  99.79W
06/12/2014                   UVALDE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOSS OF POWER FOR MOST OF UVALDE... PLANES
            OVERTURNED... LOTS OF HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND VERY HIGH
            WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400553

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          10 N LEAKEY             29.87N  99.76W
06/12/2014                   REAL               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN... ROOF BLOWN OFF A HOME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400554

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1007 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S BEE CAVE            30.22N  97.95W
06/12/2014                   TRAVIS             TX   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN... ROWS OF FENCES BLOWN OVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1400555

PM