Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
415 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO WATCH 288. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER ROUGHLY A PANDALE TO JUNCTION TO LLANO LINE
AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A BROADER SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO ENHANCE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH RES
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS DROPPING S/E FROM
NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL TX LATER THIS EVENING. CAPES AT OR ABOVE
4000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS
TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...A
FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY BEING BOOSTED BY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THAT WOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SECONDARY...AS PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS OVER 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR THE FORMATION OF AN MCS. THIS OPINION
IS FORMED BASED ON THE SPORADIC LOCATIONS OF THE 850 MB THETA-E
FIELDS WHICH SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST.

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY DOWNPOURS EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
BEFORE STABILITY ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
AND COULD BE TROUBLESOME ON POPS AND TEMPS IN THE LATER PERIODS.
THE NARROWNESS OF THE RIDGE MEANS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE CRISTINA COULD GET ENTRAINED INTO
THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALREADY APPEAR TO BE HEDGING
THEIR BETS WITH THE ECMWF MID LEVEL PATTERNS LOOKING VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH TX IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A CANADIAN/GFS BLEND IS PREFERRED FOR NOW SO AS NOT TO STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND KEEP
US DRY. BLENDED GUIDANCES WERE ADOPTED FOR TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE THROWN IN FOR MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CLIMATE...
DRT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
DATE  HIGH YEAR
06/12 106  2001
06/13 105  1960

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  91  73  92  72 /  60  20  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  90  71  92  71 /  60  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  72  93  72 /  40  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  88  71  90  70 /  60  20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  76 100  76 /  30  10  10  -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  71  90  71 /  60  20  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  94  73  95  72 /  30  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  92  72 /  40  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  91  73  92  73 /  40  30  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  93  74  93  73 /  30  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  94  74  95  74 /  30  20  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
DIMMIT...KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-131100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
105 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO. THE INTERACTION OF A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND A DRY LINE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BECOME INTENSE TO SEVERE AS
THEY MOVE ON A GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THESE POTENTIAL
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

ELSEWHERE...HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EASTWARD ACROSS THE I 35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO SAN ANTONIO AND ALONG THE I 35 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS AUSTIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
441 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ186-188-122245-
GILLESPIE-KERR-
441 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KERR AND
SOUTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SEGOVIA...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JUNCTION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...
  HUNT...
  WALTONIA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3024 9915 3003 9930 3027 9970 3030 9969
      3030 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 296DEG 32KT 3030 9954