Freeze Warning 5, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AROUND TO
ABOUT 09Z MONDAY MAINLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. ACROSS KDRT...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MUCH
COLDER WEATHER IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND AT 8 PM THE
FREEZING LINE WAS JUST ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR EDWARDS
AND KERR COUNTY. A LARGE AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON THE HRRR HAD BEEN
SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BUT
HAS SINCE BACKED OFF. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIP TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...NEAR LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY...A BAND OF SNOWFALL EXTENDS
SOUTH NEAR ELDORADO AND WITH A CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS
WOULD QUICKLY CLIP LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS INTO WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE. ALL MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 750 MB THAT WOULD
LIKELY PREVENT SNOW THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DEEP SUB-
FREEZING LAYER BELOW 800 WOULD LEAD TO A SLEET/RAIN MIX OR ALL
SLEET. IF MODELS ARE OVERDOING THIS WARM LAYER...THEN BRIEF SNOW
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AM NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE HEAVY OR LAST
FOR A VERY LONG TIME SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MANY IMPACTS. SINCE IT
WILL BE SUCH A SHORT-TERM TYPE EVENT WILL MOST LIKELY HANDLE ANY
IMPACTS WITH AN SPS LATER THIS EVENING IF NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRYING IN THE LOW-LEVELS AFTER 6Z AND MUCH OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AND EXPECTED TO PUSH AWAY FROM OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
ALSO...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLEARING IS FORECAST
ACROSS AREA SITES MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERN FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IT STRETCHED
FROM WACO TO JUNCTION TO LANGTRY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND THE MAIN CHANGE IS THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS. THERE WAS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THESE FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD
OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT. WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITHIN THIS AREA
THERE WILL A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTER PRECIP IN PARTS OF BURNET AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AND THE BEST TIME WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT
9PM AND MIDNIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WITH THE
GROUND SO WARM WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WINTER PRECIP TO HAVE ANY
IMPACTS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING SO WE ONLY HAVE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT
AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. EXPECT THAT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE PARTS OF THE CWA THAT HAVE NOT YET HAD A FREEZE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AN OVER RUNNING
PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS STARTING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SEEMS LIKE TOO
LONG A PERIOD FOR RAIN EVEN THOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOW. TIME FRAME
SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              33  50  29  53  36 /  20   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  51  24  53  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     33  53  28  54  35 /  20   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            29  48  27  52  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           34  53  31  53  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        31  49  25  52  33 /  20   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             32  52  25  52  34 /  10   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        33  52  26  53  33 /  20   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   34  50  27  52  34 /  30   0  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       35  53  29  53  38 /  10   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           36  53  29  54  37 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1159 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171800-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1159 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO AUSTIN LINE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE LOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ON THE ESCARPMENT MONDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER MORNING
LOWS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WHERE A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR.

COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT REACHED A WIDESPREAD FREEZE YET THIS SEASON
MAY BE CANDIDATES FOR A FREEZE WARNING ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

TXZ171-172-170630-
LLANO-BURNET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET
1036 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

...VERY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH 1230 AM...

A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE INTO LLANO
AND BURNET COUNTIES BY 11 PM. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AT
32 DEGREES...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.

HAMPSHIRE