Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS El Paso, TX

452 
WWUS54 KEPZ 252144
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
344 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

NMC017-252152-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-140925T2145Z/
GRANT NM-
344 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 345 PM MDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3312 10839 3306 10786 3301 10784 3300 10786
      3297 10783 3281 10777 3262 10774 3261 10790
      3257 10796 3253 10841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 343DEG 6KT 3280 10806

$$

ROGASH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY PROVED THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE BORDERLAND STILL HAD
AMPLE MOISTURE. THAT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
GAVE THE REGION ONE MORE ROUND OF STRONG AND WET STORMS. TODAY WE
SEE MORE DRYING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK IN FROM THE
NORTH LIKE YESTERDAY...BUT WITH LESSER MOISTURE IN THE AIR...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE FAR FEWER STORMS. MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT THE SAME CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOME
ISOLATED STORMS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD GIVE OUR
REGION SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
OUT TUESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO END STORM CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE USED TO THE ATMOSPHERE UNDER-PERFORMING WITH ACTUAL
PCPN/STORMS WHEN MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR OUR REGION.
YESTERDAY PROVED OUR ENVIRONMENT CAN OVER-ACHIEVE ALSO. MODELS DID
INDICATE AN ISOLATED...MOSTLY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...PATTERN
YESTERDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN AND A PUSH FROM THE EAST
WORKING ON THE ADEQUATE BUT WAINING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
HONESTLY WE SAW MUCH MORE ACTIVITY THAN WE EXPECTED.

TODAY THE PATTERN IS QUITE THE SAME WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGED TO TRACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY WITH A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A NARROW
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ON A SE FETCH
OFF THE TEXAS GULF. THE PM EPZ SOUNDING SHOWED A DROP OF OUR PW TO
1.07" AND THIS WAS RIGHT AFTER A RAIN SHOWER WITH THE SONDE GOING
UP IN CLOUDS. AFTERNOON VALUES TODAY ARE TO DROP FURTHER...BETWEEN
.75-.85". THIS MEANS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT ACHIEVE THE SAME
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY. THE PROGS DO STILL SHOW NEGATIVE LI'S
AND SOME CAPE... BUT BOTH ARE QUITE MARGINAL AND ALSO REDUCED FROM
YESTERDAY'S VALUES. WE WENT WITH ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN STORMS. MOST LOCALES WILL LIKELY NOT SEE RAIN TODAY. THE
FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN REMAINS INTACT AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN QUESTION.
WE KEEP A SKINNY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEST KEEPING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY. CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW AT
LOW LEVELS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST WILL KEEP TX
GULF AIR INBOUND OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND WILL CONSIST OF A SHALLOW LOW- LEVEL DECK BOUNDED WITH
DRY AIR ABOVE 10-12KFT MSL. THIS WILL MEAN ONLY SLIGHT RISKS OF
STORMS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. MOST WILL SEE FLAT TO MODERATE
FAIR WEATHER AFTERNOON CU WITH ONLY A DISTANT TOWER OR SHORT-LIVED
STORM. MOST OF THOSE WILL BE OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND THOSE SHOULD
FAVOR THE GILA REGION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A DEEP PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE TIMING. THE CURRENT
SUITE INDICATES ARRIVAL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL IS WETTER
COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GFS MAKES A CONNECTION WITH THE
TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM RACHEL...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. IN FACT
THE GFS ACTUALLY ABSORBS RACHEL INTO THE TROUGH AND PULLS HER
THROUGH THE BORDERLAND LATE MONDAY. THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME IS STILL
IN A LOT OF FLUX CONCERNING MODEL OUTPUT. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN AND
MON WITH DRYING TO FOLLOW TUESDAY. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
INTERACTION OF THE PASSING PACIFIC STORM WITH RACHEL FOR MON
NIGHT-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/12Z - 26/12Z...
GNRLY VFR CONDS ALL AREAS. WINDS 90-130 5-12KTS. SKIES FEW-
SCT080...EXCEPT IN VCTY OF TSRA AFT 22Z WHERE LOCAL VSBY OF 2-3SM
WITH CIGS BKN050.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS NNE FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS EVENTS OVER THE LAST WEEK OR TWO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST U.S. THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  64  83  63  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           81  58  81  57  85 /  20  20  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              81  60  81  60  82 /  20   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              87  62  85  60  82 /  30  10  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              62  46  63  46  61 /  30  20  30  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  61  84  59  83 /  20   0  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             79  57  79  56  77 /  20  20  20  10  30
DEMING                  83  59  83  59  84 /  10   0  20   0  10
LORDSBURG               86  62  85  62  84 /  10   0  20  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  63  83  63  84 /  20  10  20   0   0
DELL CITY               82  59  80  58  83 /  20  10  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            85  62  83  62  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              77  59  79  58  79 /  20  20  20   0   0
FABENS                  85  61  85  60  89 /  20  10  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  63  83  61  83 /  20  10  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  61  81  60  81 /  20  10  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           82  57  83  56  83 /  20  10  10   0   0
HATCH                   79  59  81  57  80 /  20   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                82  60  83  60  83 /  10  10  20   0  10
OROGRANDE               81  62  82  61  82 /  20  10  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 69  51  70  50  68 /  30  20  30  20  20
MESCALERO               72  51  73  51  72 /  30  20  30  20  20
TIMBERON                68  50  71  50  68 /  30  20  30  20  20
WINSTON                 73  53  75  52  73 /  30  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               75  56  76  56  75 /  20  10  20  10  10
SPACEPORT               81  57  82  55  80 /  20   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            78  53  79  52  78 /  30  20  20  20  30
HURLEY                  80  58  81  57  80 /  20  10  20  10  20
CLIFF                   82  55  84  54  81 /  20   0  20  10  30
MULE CREEK              81  51  82  50  80 /  20  10  20  20  30
FAYWOOD                 77  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  20
ANIMAS                  87  62  85  61  84 /  10   0  20  10  30
HACHITA                 83  59  84  57  84 /  10   0  20  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  55  85  55  84 /  10  10  20  10  30
CLOVERDALE              83  56  84  56  83 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14-BIRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-261730-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT OVER THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS HUDSPETH COUNTY.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE SPOTTY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERATE A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN
SHOWER PATTERN STARTING OUT WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH LARGER HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LUNDEEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
235 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

NMZ402-403-252115-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY NM-SOUTHERN GILA
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-
235 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING EASTERN GRANT AND SOUTHWESTERN
SIERRA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

AT 227 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF SAN LORENZO.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SAN LORENZO...
  GEORGETOWN...
  EMORY PASS...
  CAMP THUNDERBIRD...
  ARENAS VALLEY...
  COBRE...
  FIERRO...
  HANOVER...
  NORTH HURLEY...
  MIMBRES...
  BEAR CANYON LAKE...
  IRON CREEK CAMPGROUND...

TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 10807 3280 10829 3305 10796 3291 10774
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 040DEG 13KT 3293 10794

ROGASH