Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS El Paso, TX

668 
WWUS54 KEPZ 270138
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
738 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NMC013-035-270200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-140827T0200Z/
OTERO NM-DONA ANA NM-
738 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL DONA ANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
MDT...

AT 735 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF CHAPARRAL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING
WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN DONA ANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
  OTERO COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH...
HAIL ONE INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY
LIGHTNING. TAKE SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING NOW.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 10638 3213 10628 3204 10642 3208 10647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 214DEG 5KT 3212 10637

$$

JMG

042 
WWUS54 KEPZ 270150
SVSEPZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
750 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NMC013-035-270200-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-140827T0200Z/
OTERO NM-DONA ANA NM-
750 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL DONA ANA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM MDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3220 10638 3213 10628 3204 10642 3208 10647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 214DEG 5KT 3213 10636

$$

JMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
151 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EXCESSIVE RUNOFF COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF EL PASO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS A DEEP LAYER
OF MOISTURE STRADDLES THE REGION. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IS BEING AFFECTED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD TIME...CREATING
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR QUICKLY. NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND
ARROYOS ALONG WITH DRAINAGES NEAR BURN SCARS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. PONDING OF WATER MAY ALSO OCCUR IN POORLY DRAINED LOW
LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH
COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AS IT DOES...THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO PULL THE MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE AND SOMETIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH LARGER HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO TAPER OFF TO
WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FOR THE
AREA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES MAY RESULT IN A FEW
BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL
RETURN THE REGION BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z - 28/00Z...
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING THROUGH...WILL GENERATE SCT-NMRS SHRA AND
TSRA WITH VSBY TO 1SM/WND VRB20G45KT/CIGS 020-060 THRU 15Z. OUTSIDE
STORMS...LOOK FOR FEW010-020 SCT-BKN030-070 BKN-OVC LYRD 080-150.
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
STORMS WILL GENERALLY TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST WED
MORNING...THEN FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STREAM OF DEEP SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA
TODAY AND MOST OF THIS EVENING. THIS IS FUELED BY MONSOON WINDS
AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE. AS A RESULT LOOK FOR PERIODS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. 1-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SOME OF BANDS OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY....WHICH WILL GENERALLY MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. LATER WEDNESDAY STORMS WILL THEN MOVE FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST...DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL RE INTRODUCE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHERN NM EARLY WED EVENING...CLEARING SKIES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO DRIVE ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE CAPITAN...SACRAMENTO RANGE AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION.  WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE EXITING FOUR CORNERS LOW...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TEMPORARILY
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WILL FAVOR THE SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND ANOTHER LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS OVER
THE GULF STATES. EFFECT FROM BOTH WILL BE TO DRAW SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE BACK OVER OUR AREA AS SOON AS EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WARMING UP TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY.

MIN RH WEDNESDAY WILL FALLING 5-10%...DROPPING BY A SIMILAR AMOUNT
THURSDAY.  VALUES IN SOME LOWLAND AREAS MAY FALL ANOTHER 5% BY
SATURDAY.  FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
VERY GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN DESERTS THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  89  70  92  68 /  60  40  40   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  85  65  87  66 /  40  30  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              67  88  65  91  64 /  60  40  30   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  86  62  91  61 /  60  50  40  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              50  65  49  67  50 /  60  60  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  87  63  88  64 /  60  40  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  80  60  82  58 /  60  40  20   0   0
DEMING                  66  88  63  92  64 /  70  30  30   0   0
LORDSBURG               65  89  63  90  64 /  60  30  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  90  70  93  68 /  60  40  40   0   0
DELL CITY               65  91  67  93  65 /  40  40  30  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  90  72  92  71 /  60  40  40  20  10
LOMA LINDA              66  84  68  86  66 /  60  40  40  10   0
FABENS                  69  93  70  92  69 /  60  40  40   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  88  69  91  68 /  60  40  40   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  88  67  90  66 /  60  40  30   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  88  64  89  63 /  60  40  30   0   0
HATCH                   65  89  64  90  65 /  60  40  30   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  90  68  90  66 /  70  40  30   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  88  67  92  66 /  60  40  30  10   0
MAYHILL                 56  72  56  76  56 /  60  60  30  20  20
MESCALERO               55  75  55  78  55 /  60  60  40  20  20
TIMBERON                55  73  56  77  56 /  60  60  40  20  20
WINSTON                 57  76  56  79  56 /  70  50  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  83  60  86  62 /  70  40  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  86  64  89  64 /  60  30  30   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  79  56  82  57 /  70  50  20   0   0
HURLEY                  60  82  61  88  61 /  60  30  20   0   0
CLIFF                   61  85  59  88  59 /  60  40  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              55  81  52  83  54 /  70  30  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  81  59  83  59 /  70  30  30   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  88  64  90  65 /  60  30  20   0   0
HACHITA                 63  86  63  91  63 /  70  30  30   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  84  61  90  61 /  70  30  30   0   0
CLOVERDALE              61  82  60  86  61 /  70  30  30   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1136 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-271745-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1136 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. AS RESULT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EXCESSIVE RUN OFF MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS. NORMALLY DRY DRAINAGES
AND ARROYOS MAY QUICKLY FILL WITH WATER AND DEBRIS. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. RAIN AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF AND END BY THE EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ALL OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER AND FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LUNDEEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
132 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       UPHAM                   32.89N 107.00W
08/26/2014  M2.00 INCH       SIERRA             NM   PUBLIC

            SPACEPORT OFFICIAL REPORTS 2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN
            ABOUT 80 MINUTES. MAIN ROAD SOUTH OF THE THE SPACEPORT
            WAS WASHED OUT AND WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FRIDAY AUGUST
            29.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1400368

JAR