Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
BEGIN DRIFTING WEST OUT OF THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TO CONTINUE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA. BLENDED TPW SHOWS PW'S RANGING FROM .9" FAR NW TO 1.2"
SE. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN SHOWING
GRANT/SIERRA COUNTIES AS A HOT SPOT FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
COMBINED WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY THERE YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS IN
THAT AREA. HRRR EARLY RUNS THIS MORNING WERE ALSO SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES...LIKELY FUELED
BY OUTFLOW COMING OFF THE SACS...BUT LATEST RUN LOOKS TO BE BACKING
OFF THAT THEME. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A CLOSE REPEAT OF TODAY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES. MAIN IMPACTS OF STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING DUE TO SEASONALLY HIGH PW'S AND
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATTERN OF REDUCED CONVECTION LOOKS TO
CONTINUE WITH THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST OF OUT THE AREA AS NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THOUGH MODELS NOT SHOWING STRONG DRY CONTINENTAL
ADVECTION...MOISTURE DOES DECREASE. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PW'S
DECREASE TO ABOUT .7-.9" WHILE DEWPOINTS FALL FROM THE 45-55 DEG
RANGE TO 35-45 DEG. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED POP
CHANCES IN FOR EACH DAY...THOUGH MOUNTAINS AS USUAL WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AGAIN FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM BUT LATEST RUNS NOT REALLY
SHOWING THIS. KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 030000Z - 040000Z
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TONIGHT. SKY: FEW-SCT040-080 SCT-BKN 100-140 AND BKN200-250.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...THEN ISOLD SHRA. CIGS
SCT-BKN040-080 BKN-OVC100-140 IN AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH VSBY AT
TIMES BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15KTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 5-10
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. ANY STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIR
OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY
AND IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. HAINES
INDICES GENERALLY LOW (3) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  94  76  95  74 /  30  20  30   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           72  92  73  93  69 /  20  20  20   0  10
LAS CRUCES              69  93  70  94  69 /  30  20  30   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              70  93  71  92  70 /  30  20  30  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              48  66  47  68  46 /  40  30  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  93  69  91  68 /  60  20  30  20  20
SILVER CITY             60  85  60  87  62 /  60  30  40  20  20
DEMING                  69  93  70  92  69 /  40  30  30  10  10
LORDSBURG               68  92  69  92  68 /  60  40  40  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  94  75  94  73 /  30  20  30   0  10
DELL CITY               66  93  67  93  65 /  20  10  10   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            73  96  76  97  71 /  30  20  20   0  10
LOMA LINDA              68  87  69  90  67 /  30  20  30   0  10
FABENS                  72  95  73  96  71 /  30  20  20   0  10
SANTA TERESA            71  93  71  95  70 /  30  20  30   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  94  72  95  71 /  40  20  30   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           65  94  66  94  65 /  40  20  30   0  10
HATCH                   67  96  68  94  67 /  50  20  30   0  10
COLUMBUS                72  93  74  89  72 /  40  30  30  10  10
OROGRANDE               69  93  70  94  69 /  30  20  30   0  10
MAYHILL                 57  78  57  78  56 /  40  30  40  20  20
MESCALERO               54  77  54  78  53 /  40  30  40  20  20
TIMBERON                53  74  53  76  52 /  40  30  40  20  20
WINSTON                 63  85  60  86  61 /  60  40  50  20  30
HILLSBORO               69  91  70  93  68 /  60  30  30  10  20
SPACEPORT               68  93  69  92  68 /  60  20  30  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            58  85  59  87  56 /  60  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  62  88  63  87  61 /  60  40  40  20  20
CLIFF                   54  89  52  88  52 /  60  40  40  20  20
MULE CREEK              53  86  50  88  49 /  60  40  40  20  20
FAYWOOD                 66  89  67  94  65 /  60  30  30  20  20
ANIMAS                  71  93  71  92  71 /  40  40  40  20  20
HACHITA                 67  93  68  93  67 /  40  30  30  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          70  92  71  89  70 /  40  30  30  20  20
CLOVERDALE              64  86  65  87  63 /  50  40  40  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HEFNER/PARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1225 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-031845-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1225 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE. STORM
MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND RAINS COULD BECOME HEAVY. THUS ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCAL
FLOODING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS AREA WIDE THURSDAY WITH THE
SAME THREATS AS WEDNESDAY'S STORMS. BEYOND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ISOLATED...AND MOSTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS WILL STILL POSE A THREAT OF STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND SMALL TO MODERATE HAIL. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

HEFNER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
524 PM MDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAPARRAL               32.03N 106.40W
07/01/2014                   DONA ANA           NM   PUBLIC

            LATE TWITTER REPORT OF ROOF DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES IN
            CHAPARRAL FROM THUNDERSTORM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1400317

LANEY

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