Freeze Warning 6, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
350 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTER IS ON TAP FOR THE BORDERLAND TODAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DESCEND FROM THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS MORNING AND TO THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF LAS CRUCES. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW...AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME HEAVY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COLD WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEN DOMINATE THE REST OF THE NEW WEEK AHEAD WITH SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOONS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM...REACHING NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK HITTING WINTER STORM APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. CLOUDS HAVE
THICKENED OVER MOST OF THE NORTH HALF OF NEW MEXICO AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL IN OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH. CURRENTLY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
GRANTS-SANTA FE AND THEN DRAPING SOUTHWARD DOWN TO
ROSWELL-CARLSBAD-WINK. THE SECTION OF THE FRONT LYING EAST-WEST WILL
HAVE THE MOST PUNCH AND SHOULD MOVE TO THE CWA NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...REACHING TCS AROUND 15Z AND ELP AROUND 20Z. THIS WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF LAS CRUCES. COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS...TO AROUND 6000 FT EAST AND 7000 FT WEST.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SACS WHERE A COMBINATION OF
STRONG PVA...LFQ OF 100 KT JET AND GOOD COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...GFS/NAM
BOTH SHOWING CSI POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SACS. WILL
UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNING OVER THE HIGH ELEVATION ZONE
AND ALSO ISSUE WINTER STORM ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
SACS. PROBLEMS INCLUDE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM (ABOUT 6 HR WINDOW). STILL THINK AT LEAST 4 INCHES IS
LIKELY AND UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IF CONVECTIVE BANDING OCCURS.
BANDS WOULD BE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST SO HIGH SNOWFALL VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE SACS. STRONG WEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND AND WEAKEN SOME.
STRONG NORTH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA LAKES REGION. THE
UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD BOTH BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING...ENDING PRECIP AND ALLOWING THE SKIES TO CLEAR.

COLD TEMPS IN STORM POST FRONTAL ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
12-17 DEG BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING/BLO FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY ACROSS
THE LOW ELEVATIONS TUE MRNG/WED MRNG. NM BOOTHEEL MAY NEED FREEZE
WARNINGS AS THEY HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE NEW WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WITH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING
BREEZY AFTERNOONS TO THE BORDERLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY WARM
TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY THUR/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z-17/12Z...
GENLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN150 SEP LAYERS 320. UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WDLY SCATTERED -SHRA BKN100 WILL
DVLP...MOSTLY NORTH OF LAS CRUCES AFT 16Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
FALL TO AROUND 6500 FT OVER THE SAC MTNS WITH CIGS 030 3-5SM SHSN
DVLPG...AND ISOLD CIGS AOB 010 VSBYS BLO 1SM +SHSN. ELSW...SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT ACROSS THE BLACK RANGE/GILA
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH KTCS AROUND 15Z AND THEN KELP BY
AROUND 20Z. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEST 20-30KTS AND TURN
NORTH 10-20KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE FIRE ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WDLY SCT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...MOSTLY NORTH OF LAS CRUCES. THE
CLOD FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS...TO 6000 FT OVER ZONE 113
AND 7000 FT OVER ZONE 110. SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW ABOVE THESE
LEVELS AND OVER THE SACS SNOW WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY HEAVY THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW FALL OF 4-8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
PORTIONS OF ZONE 113. PRECIP AND CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER DOSE OF COLD TEMPS FOR MON-WED...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN AFTER TODAY...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THUR-FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  34  49  30  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           56  28  44  26  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  32  47  27  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  30  46  27  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  20  33  16  39 /  70  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  30  48  26  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             54  30  47  25  50 /  30   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  62  31  49  25  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               59  31  52  26  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      61  36  47  30  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  27  44  24  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            63  33  49  28  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              55  30  43  27  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  63  33  50  27  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            61  33  48  27  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  33  47  29  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           59  27  48  24  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  29  50  25  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  37  49  29  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  32  46  28  49 /  20   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  18  39  17  45 /  60  20   0   0   0
MESCALERO               38  21  40  18  45 /  70  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                38  21  39  19  44 /  60  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  21  45  20  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               53  29  46  26  49 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               60  25  49  24  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  24  47  21  51 /  40   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  54  28  47  24  50 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   53  25  53  19  55 /  30   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              51  21  50  16  52 /  40   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  31  46  26  49 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  63  33  54  27  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 62  31  53  25  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  34  54  27  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              65  35  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ414.

TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

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