Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS El Paso, TX

441 
WGUS74 KEPZ 142340
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
540 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

TXC229-142355-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-140815T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HUDSPETH TX-
540 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
HUDSPETH COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. ARROYOS
OR STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3162 10529 3173 10579 3200 10581 3200 10549
      3195 10528

$$

HARDIMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
209 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE THREAT OF HEAVY WITH A FEW AREAS EXPERIENCING FLOODING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRIER RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
A 1.6 PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A 1600 J/KG CAPE. MOISTURE WAS ALSO
DEEP AND THERE WAS LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WEAK UPPER
WAVE/VORT AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THUS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS INDICATE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WHILE WIND PROFILE
IS FAVORABLE OF SLOW MOVING AND/OR BACK BUILDING CELLS. THUS RISK
OF FLOODING WILL EXIST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUES EARLIER FOR
NEW MEXICO ZONES BUT BELIEVE HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR OVER A FEW
AREAS IN WEST TEXAS AS WELL. WHILE HEATING AND DYNAMICS WILL
INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS TO HELP
SUSTAIN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE RATHER SLIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST ARE GENERALLY
ABOVE 50. THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.2 TO 1.5
INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3
ON SUNDAY. AIR MASS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND
600 TO 1200 J/KG MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WEAK
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SO EXPECT SURFACE HEATING AND OUTFLOWS TO
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND PROFILES
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW MOVING AND/OR BACK BUILDING CELLS
SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP WARM
AIR AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION
THIS PATTERN WILL TEND TO STEER MOST UPPER WAVES/DISTURBANCES
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL RESULT IN SOME
DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE LATER PERIODS. DESPITE THIS
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND AN INCH WITH CAPES FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS. THUS ISOLATED STORMS ARE OUTLOOKED MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z - 16/00Z...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE E OF OUR CWA IS INTERACTING WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND IS CHANNELING IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. 00Z-09Z: GNLY THRU PD
SCT-BKN 50-080 SCT-BKN 100-140 SCT-BKN 200-250. SCT AREAS VRB25G35KT
3SM TSRA BKN040SB OVC100. ISOLD MVFR/IFR VRB30G30KT 1SM +TSRA BKN020
OVC050 ESPLY BETWEEN 00Z-09Z. TS MOVMT GNLY N 5-10 MPH. AFT 09Z:
SCT070 SCT-BKN 100-140 SCT-BKN 200-250 SFC WINDS W TO NW 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME FROM BAJA MEXICO MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN
NORTH EASTWARD. AGAIN SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY RESULTING IN LESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE MIN RH FIELD WILL
RUN FROM 35% TO 45% LOWLANDS AND 45% TO 55% HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
DROPPING ABOUT 5% ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  92  72  95  73 /  30  30  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           67  90  68  93  67 /  20  30  30  40  30
LAS CRUCES              69  90  68  94  68 /  40  30  30  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  92  67  95  68 /  30  40  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  71  51  71  51 /  50  50  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  89  68  92  68 /  40  40  30  20  20
SILVER CITY             63  85  62  89  63 /  40  50  40  30  30
DEMING                  68  90  68  94  68 /  40  40  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               68  89  68  93  68 /  40  40  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  94  72  95  73 /  30  30  30  40  30
DELL CITY               68  93  69  94  68 /  20  40  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            73  94  73  94  73 /  30  30  30  40  30
LOMA LINDA              67  88  68  89  68 /  30  40  30  40  30
FABENS                  71  94  71  95  71 /  30  30  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            71  90  70  95  71 /  30  30  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  93  70  95  70 /  30  30  30  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           67  92  67  95  67 /  40  30  30  30  30
HATCH                   67  91  67  98  66 /  40  40  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                70  89  69  91  69 /  40  40  30  30  30
OROGRANDE               69  93  69  94  70 /  30  40  30  30  30
MAYHILL                 57  78  57  78  57 /  50  50  50  40  40
MESCALERO               57  80  57  82  57 /  50  50  50  40  30
TIMBERON                56  80  57  81  57 /  50  50  40  50  40
WINSTON                 59  81  57  84  58 /  60  50  50  30  30
HILLSBORO               63  86  63  89  64 /  40  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               67  90  67  94  68 /  40  30  30  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  81  61  86  60 /  60  60  50  30  30
HURLEY                  64  84  64  90  65 /  40  40  40  30  30
CLIFF                   62  89  64  93  64 /  50  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              59  85  58  86  58 /  50  50  40  20  20
FAYWOOD                 64  87  65  90  65 /  40  40  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  69  87  68  91  69 /  40  50  40  30  30
HACHITA                 67  92  66  93  68 /  40  40  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  89  65  89  65 /  40  40  40  30  30
CLOVERDALE              63  85  64  87  64 /  40  50  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1123 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-151700-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1123 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
WITH OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING OVER A FEW LOCATIONS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
SOME STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. DECREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
352 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

NMZ417-TXZ420-421-142245-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS TX-OTERO MESA NM-SALT
BASIN TX-
352 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING EXTREME SOUTHERN OTERO AND
NORTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

AT 349 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OF
LOMA LINDA TO NEAR CORNUDAS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CORNUDAS...
  PORTIONS OF U.S. HIGHWAY 62-180.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 10587 3199 10522 3164 10532 3180 10589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 250DEG 9KT 3181 10544

HARDIMAN