Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS El Paso, TX

887 
WGUS74 KEPZ 140356
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
956 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2014

NMC013-140407-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-140814T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DONA ANA NM-
956 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN DONA
ANA COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM MDT...

SOME RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL FLOW ACROSS SOME LOW 
WATER CROSSINGS AND SOME PONDING OF WATER MAY STILL STAND IN LOW 
LYING AREAS. HOWEVER THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND ARROYOS 
OR STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE 
FLOOD THREAT. INCREASED FLOW IN THE RIO GRANDE MAY ALSO BE WORKING 
SOUTH TOWARD HATCH AND RADIUM SPRINGS...WITH MINOR FLOODING ALONG 
THE RIVER BANKS THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY REMAINING 
FLOOD WATERS DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS...ALLOW MORE TIME FOR THEM TO 
RECEDE FURTHER BEFORE CHANCING YOUR LIFE.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3278 10718 3265 10711 3262 10729 3277 10729

$$

BIRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BORDERLAND TO DECREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. HOWEVER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL DRIVE THIS PLUME OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS. STILL EXPECTING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW
TO HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL FLOODING OVER THE WESTERN
CWA...THOUGH AREAS TO THE EAST CERTAINLY NOT IMMUNE TO LOCAL
FLOODING TONIGHT. PW'S HAVE DIMINISHED EVER SO SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN
AT AROUND 1.3" TO 1.5"...AND DON'T REALLY START SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHING UNTIL SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUING.

UPPER HIGH RE-CENTERING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN DRIFTING
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA TO RIDE UP OVER THE
HIGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE PLUME DISTORTS
IN SHAPE WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH. FINALLY
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS ABLE TO SHIFT BACK NORTH OVER NEW
MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PLUME AND DEFORMATION ZONE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN PW'S...DOWN TO .8" TO 1.1" SATURDAY AND REMAINING THAT
WAY THROUGH THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWING THIS TREND
ALSO...SO DOWNGRADE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SATURDAY LOOKS
GOOD. ALONG WITH THAT...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL SHOULD GREATLY
DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WARMING
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z - 15/00Z...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE E OF OUR CWA IS INTERACTING WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND IS CHANNELING IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ESPLY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GNLY THRU PD SCT - BKN 50-080 SCT-BKN 100-140 SCT-BKN
200-250. SCT AREAS VRB25G35KT 3SM TSRA BKN040SB OVC100. ISOLD
MVFR/IFR VRB30G30KT 1SM +TSRA BKN020 OVC050 ESPLY BETWEEN 00Z-09Z.
TS MOVMT GNLY N 5-10 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW MORE NUMEROUS IN THE GILA REGION.
AGAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME MOREL DOMINANT OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL MEAN
SOMEWHAT LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL...ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH WILL RUN GENERA
LY 35% TO 45% LOWLANDS AND 45% TO 55% HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  90  73  93  74 /  40  30  30  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           64  87  68  91  68 /  30  20  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              68  88  70  91  70 /  50  30  30  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              68  87  68  93  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  65  52  72  54 /  40  50  30  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  88  69  90  69 /  70  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             63  81  64  86  64 /  70  50  40  40  30
DEMING                  68  89  69  91  69 /  70  40  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               67  89  69  90  68 /  70  40  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  91  73  95  73 /  40  30  30  20  30
DELL CITY               67  92  69  94  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            71  93  74  95  73 /  30  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              67  84  68  89  72 /  40  20  20  20  30
FABENS                  70  91  72  95  72 /  40  20  20  20  30
SANTA TERESA            70  89  72  91  71 /  40  30  30  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  89  70  94  71 /  40  30  30  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  91  68  93  68 /  50  30  30  30  30
HATCH                   67  90  68  92  69 /  60  30  40  30  30
COLUMBUS                69  86  71  90  70 /  60  30  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               68  89  70  94  71 /  40  30  30  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  73  58  79  60 /  30  50  30  40  40
MESCALERO               56  75  58  81  59 /  40  50  30  40  30
TIMBERON                56  73  57  81  58 /  30  50  30  40  30
WINSTON                 60  76  60  82  61 /  70  50  40  40  40
HILLSBORO               64  80  64  87  66 /  70  40  40  40  30
SPACEPORT               67  87  68  91  69 /  60  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            59  79  61  82  62 /  70  60  40  50  40
HURLEY                  64  83  65  85  66 /  70  40  40  30  30
CLIFF                   64  83  63  90  63 /  70  50  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              61  80  60  86  61 /  70  50  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 64  81  65  88  66 /  70  40  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  67  87  70  88  70 /  70  40  40  30  30
HACHITA                 66  89  68  93  68 /  70  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  88  66  90  66 /  70  30  40  30  30
CLOVERDALE              64  85  64  86  66 /  70  40  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>411.

TX...NONE.
&&

HEFNER/NOVLAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1123 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-141700-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1123 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST COVERAGE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS LESSENING
IN COVERAGE AND FLOOD POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

HEFNER