Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS El Paso, TX

147 
WGUS74 KEPZ 080241
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
841 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

TXC141-080345-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140808T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EL PASO TX-
841 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO
COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

AT 841 PM MDT...YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA IN FAR NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTY.

RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCHES OF ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA IN THE LAST HOUR. RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO THE WEST...OFF THE HUECO MOUNTAINS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 
HOUR OR TWO. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUECO TANKS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO 
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO 
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10600 3182 10600 3183 10619 3200 10623

$$

TRIPOLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW AREAS WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRIER WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ON THE LARGER/SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN
TEXAS WILL REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN MEAN TROUGHING WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESULTANT FLOW WILL INCLUDE DEEP
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE CWA WITH TRAJECTORIES
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. MORNING RAOB ALREADY EXHIBITED THESE ELEMENTS WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.4 INCHES AND A 1100 J/KG CAPE. SURFACE
HEATING HAS BEEN DELAYED DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE BUT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE SACS. MODEL OUTPUT AND
ESPECIALLY SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A WEAK VORTICITY MAX SOUTH
OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL WHICH SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS CIRCULATION MOVES
INTO THE CWA. MOISTURE IS DEEP AND WIND PROFILE WILL EXHIBIT
LITTLE SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. THUS BACK BUILDING
CELLS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HIGH WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AND RELATIVELY WARM
AIR ALOFT ALSO INDICATE WARM PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WITH STORMS
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL EXIST
BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC COAST WITH UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER REGION. THIS SILL SUSTAIN
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER GENERALLY RANGING FROM AN INCH NEAR ARIZONA BORDER TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND MID 50S TO LOWER 60SM AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON CAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000
J/KG. MODELS ALSO HINT AT WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WIND PROFILE CONDUCIVE
FOR SLOW MOVING AND/OR BACK BUILDING CELLS WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. ALL OF THESE FACTORS INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
PERIODS RESULTING IN DIMINISHED THREAT OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/00Z - 09/00Z.
MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND ALLOWS MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTH WITH SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES. SCT-BKN060-080 BKN100-140
BKN200-250. ESPLY AFT 03Z OVERNIGHT AREAS MVFR/IFR BKN-OVC020-040 3SM
TSRAGS. WINDS GNRL 260-330/10G20KT  EXCEPT IN/NR TS VRB25G35 KTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREAS TODAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WILL BRING OUR REGION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVERHEAD WILL START
TO MOVE FARTHER EAST AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS IN TURN WILL
ALLOW MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH IN
AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD. FINALLY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO REBUILD WESTWARD BACK OVER THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK
REDUCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  89  69  92  72 /  40  30  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           67  87  67  86  66 /  30  30  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              68  88  65  89  67 /  40  30  30  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  65  90  68 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  69  51  70  50 /  40  50  30  50  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  88  65  90  66 /  30  30  30  30  30
SILVER CITY             61  82  61  83  62 /  30  30  30  40  30
DEMING                  68  88  64  89  66 /  30  30  30  30  30
LORDSBURG               65  89  62  88  67 /  20  30  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  90  69  92  71 /  40  30  30  30  30
DELL CITY               68  91  67  92  68 /  30  30  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            72  92  73  90  70 /  40  30  30  30  30
LOMA LINDA              65  84  65  85  66 /  40  30  30  40  30
FABENS                  70  91  71  92  72 /  40  30  30  30  30
SANTA TERESA            67  89  67  91  70 /  40  30  30  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  88  66  89  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           68  88  66  90  67 /  30  30  30  30  30
HATCH                   67  89  64  92  66 /  30  40  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  89  65  89  68 /  30  30  30  30  30
OROGRANDE               70  90  68  90  68 /  40  30  30  30  30
MAYHILL                 57  75  55  76  54 /  40  50  30  40  40
MESCALERO               57  75  56  79  54 /  30  50  30  40  30
TIMBERON                56  75  56  78  54 /  40  50  30  40  30
WINSTON                 58  78  57  80  60 /  30  40  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               61  82  60  83  65 /  30  40  30  40  30
SPACEPORT               68  89  66  88  66 /  30  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            57  81  57  81  60 /  30  40  30  40  30
HURLEY                  60  84  59  84  63 /  30  40  30  40  30
CLIFF                   63  87  62  86  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              55  84  57  83  63 /  20  30  30  40  30
FAYWOOD                 60  83  60  82  63 /  30  30  30  40  30
ANIMAS                  66  88  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  30  30
HACHITA                 64  87  64  89  65 /  30  30  30  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  84  62  86  65 /  30  30  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              60  82  62  84  62 /  20  30  30  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1130 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-081730-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1130 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO COVER THE REGION WHILE UPPER
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND THE WEST. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS...WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL OVER VERY
ISOLATED LOCATIONS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

ROGASH