Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
310 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
OVERNIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
STORMS BEING SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED IN THE
LOWLANDS...WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STILL OVER THE AREA...WITH PW READINGS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER MCS TO MOVE NORTH OUT
OF CHIHUAHUA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEN THE
WEAK UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL MOVE NW INTO AZ...EVENTUALLY PHASING
WITH A LARGER ONE CURRENTLY NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CA AND SOAKING AZ.
ALSO AN UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER UTAH WILL SLIDE DOWN TO EASTERN NM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING SOME CAPPING AND ROTATING IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST. THE REMNANTS OF A STALLED BACK DOOR FRONT
FROM EXTREME NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO EXTREME SE AZ SHOULD BE FADING OUT
AS WELL. THUS THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT
WESTWARD SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT FORECASTER WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FFA
ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION.

BY MIDWEEK A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS INDICATED BY THE
MODELS WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND THE PLUME OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA...CENTERED
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED IN
THE LOWLANDS. ALSO OUR TEMPS WILL RISE FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z - 04/00Z.
BKN-SCT100 SEP LYRS TO 300 WITH ISOLD BKN080 -SHRA. FEW -TSRA
BKN100CB BECOMING WDLY SCATTERED AFT 00Z WITH TOPS TO 430. LOCAL
VYSB 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB020. THUNDERSTORM ACITVITY MOSTLY DONE BY
05Z...BUT THEN RE-DEVELOPING BY AROUND 17Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO. THE MOISTURE DOES MOVE SLOWLY WEST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN OUT FROM
DEMING WEST. AFTER TUESDAY THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES BACK OVER NEW
MEXICO...GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MIN RH'S WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% LOWLANDS
NEXT 3 DAYS...AND FROM 45-55% MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  87  70  90  71 /  50  50  30  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           68  84  64  86  65 /  40  40  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              66  86  66  88  67 /  60  50  30  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  84  67  88  68 /  50  50  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  66  51  66  52 /  50  50  30  50  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  83  66  85  67 /  60  50  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             62  77  63  78  64 /  70  50  50  40  30
DEMING                  66  85  66  87  67 /  70  50  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               66  85  68  87  69 /  70  50  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  86  70  90  71 /  50  50  30  20  20
DELL CITY               67  86  66  91  67 /  40  30  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            67  87  69  92  70 /  40  30  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              65  83  64  84  65 /  50  40  20  20  20
FABENS                  66  87  68  91  69 /  50  40  20  20  20
SANTA TERESA            65  86  69  89  70 /  50  50  30  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  87  68  85  69 /  60  50  30  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  87  67  86  68 /  60  50  30  20  20
HATCH                   65  85  66  87  67 /  60  50  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                67  86  67  88  68 /  70  50  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               65  86  67  88  68 /  50  50  20  20  20
MAYHILL                 58  74  59  72  60 /  60  40  30  40  20
MESCALERO               57  73  57  73  58 /  50  40  30  50  20
TIMBERON                60  73  56  72  57 /  50  40  30  40  20
WINSTON                 59  79  60  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               66  86  65  81  66 /  60  50  40  40  30
SPACEPORT               66  84  66  86  67 /  60  50  40  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            62  82  61  79  62 /  70  50  50  50  30
HURLEY                  63  80  64  81  65 /  70  50  50  40  30
CLIFF                   55  83  63  83  64 /  70  50  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              63  82  64  82  65 /  80  60  50  40  40
FAYWOOD                 64  82  64  81  65 /  70  50  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  66  85  67  87  68 /  70  60  50  40  30
HACHITA                 65  86  66  86  67 /  70  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  85  66  83  67 /  70  50  40  40  30
CLOVERDALE              63  83  62  79  63 /  60  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

FAUSETT/HEFNER