Special Weather Statement, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
524 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WINDING UP NW OF
THE NORTH COAST HAS BEEN GENERATING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BY AUTOMATED WIND SENSORS AND THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
OF POWER OUTAGES. MEANWHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT...PRODUCING
STEADY HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL SEND OUT REPORTS LATER TODAY TO
SUMMARIZE THE RAINFALL TOTALS AS WELL AS PEAK WIND GUSTS FROM
AROUND THE AREA.

THE LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING NE AT ABOUT 36KT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE BY MID MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. DEL NORTE COUNTY
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WINDS THROUGH NOON SO THE
WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS
FOR ZONES 3 AND 1.

THE STEADY FEED OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
MENDOCINO COUNTY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE INTENSITY WILL EASE UP AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OFFSHORE TOWARD THE COAST. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
THE NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO AND THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT HOPLAND
HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE EEL
AT FERNBRIDE WILL STEADILY RISE TODAY AND MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
OPEN CELL CUMULUS CONVECTION OUTSIDE 130W WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT.
WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -25C AND WEAK INSTABILITY WE
MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUT OVER
THE WATERS AND OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW
STRIKES ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK OFFSHORE.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW INSTABILITY LINGERING NEAR
THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...SO A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 4KFT ON FRIDAY. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ABOVE 4KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GFS...NAM12 AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE BUILDING ON SATURDAY AND HOLDING IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS BY NO MEANS VERY STRONG OR WET. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE TUE AND
WED...THEN MOVE IT EAST BY THU. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE
SOME MORE LIGHT OCCASIONAL PREICP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.HIGH SURF...EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AS POST FRONTAL SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE SEA STATE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS FRONT. WE'LL BE LOOKING AT SWELL IN THE
17 FT RANGE AROUND 15 SECONDS, WHICH SHOULD YIELD SURF IN THE 18 TO
25 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE EASING AT THE BEACHES, WHICH
TYPICALLY CAUSES PEOPLE TO HEAD TO THE COAST. THE SURF WILL REMAIN
LARGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT BE BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS.
IT WILL BEHOOVE BEACH VISITORS TO STAY MUCH FARTHER BACK FROM THE
SURF THAN NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. LONG PREIOD WAVES CAUSE STRONG
SET BEHAVIOR AND COULD CAUSE WAVES TO RUN FATHER UP THE BEACH. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNIG WILL BRING
PERIODS HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, VFR WILL
BE THE NORM FOR COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN. UKI AND OTHER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL START THE DAY IFR/MVFR DUE TO VSBY/CIGS.
ONCE THE FRONT KICKS OUT LATE THIS MORNING ALL AREAS SHOULD GO VFR
WITH ONLY SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE AN
ISSUE, BUT WILL ALSO END ONCE THE FRONT SWEEPS OUT. BFG

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN
CHANGE WAS SIMPLY TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF LETTING THEM DROP IN THE MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE GUSTS
WILL REMAIN UP ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT TO WARRANT THE EXTENSION. THE
STORM WARMING STILL LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A
GALE WARNING ONCE IT DROPS OUT. LIKEWISE, THE GALES WILL BE REPLACED
BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHEN THEY DROP OFF. WEATHER WISE, LOW
PRESSURE IS LIFTING PAST NW CAL THIS MORNING ON ITS WAY TOWARD
COASTAL OREGON. A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS AS THIS
OCCURS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AND STEEP WAVES. WHILE THERE IS A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL OUT THERE AS WELL, THE STEEP WAVES WILL ACT TO
MASK IT. NOT UNTIL THE WINDS AND STEEP WAVE PULL BACK WILL THE SWELL
AGAIN SHOW ITSELF FULLY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL EASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
BUT POST FRONTAL SWELL WILL KEEP SEA STATE ELEVATED BETWEEN 14 AND
17 FEET AT ABOUT 15 SECONDS. SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO HAVE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WHILE
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS ONE. OVERALL, THINGS REMAIN ON
TRACK. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ001-003.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ001-002.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ002-076.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ410-450-455-475.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
446 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

CAZ004-121300-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
446 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. ROCK OR MUD
SLIDES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO FALL
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AROUND 4000 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

CAZ076-121300-
MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
446 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RUSSIAN RIVER AT HOPLAND.
A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SMALLER RIVERS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MIXED WITH SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

CAZ003-121300-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
446 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

CAZ002-121300-
MENDOCINO COAST-
446 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO.
A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SMALLER RIVERS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

CAZ001-121300-
REDWOOD COAST-
446 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EEL RIVER
AT FERNBRIDGE FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA
1145 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

CAZ001-003-112015-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-REDWOOD COAST-
1145 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH COAST INTERIOR...REDWOOD
COAST...

AT 1143 AM PST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KLAMATH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRESCENT CITY...JEDEDIAH SMITH STATE PARK...KLAMATH...
BERTSCH-OCEANVIEW...GASQUET...SMITH RIVER...CRESCENT CITY NORTH...FT
DICK AND KLAMATH GLEN.

A LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING ONTO THE COAST NORTH OF ORICK. THIS WILL
MOVE ACROSS HIGHWAY 101.

LAT...LON 4200 12356 4190 12356 4189 12364 4183 12370
      4171 12366 4160 12372 4159 12368 4146 12361
      4138 12366 4138 12350 4134 12349 4134 12350
      4130 12409 4155 12408 4154 12405 4157 12410
      4173 12416 4176 12422 4200 12420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 259DEG 38KT 4162 12413

MKK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA
1158 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

CAZ002-003-076-112030-
MENDOCINO INTERIOR-NORTH COAST INTERIOR-MENDOCINO COAST-
1158 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MENDOCINO INTERIOR...
NORTH COAST INTERIOR...MENDOCINO COAST...

AT 1157 AM PST...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER LEGGETT...
OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF RICHARDSON GROVE STATE PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 55
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARBERVILLE...RICHARDSON GROVE STATE PARK...LAYTONVILLE...LEGGETT...
REDWAY...ROCKPORT...RICHARDSON GROVE...PIERCY...BRANSCOMB AND BENBOW.

LAT...LON 4021 12387 3989 12335 3950 12362 3958 12378
      3960 12379 3968 12379 3972 12383 3983 12385
      3984 12386
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 185DEG 48KT 3983 12374

KML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA
1209 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

CAZ001-003-112030-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-REDWOOD COAST-
1209 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH COAST INTERIOR...REDWOOD
COAST...

AT 1205 PM PST...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... EUREKA...ARCATA...KLAMATH...JEBEDIAH
SMITH STATE PARK...ORICK... FORTUNA...RIO
DELL...TRINIDAD...CARLOTTA...MCKINLEYVILLE...SCOTIA... WESTHAVEN-
MOONSTONE...GASQUET...BERTSCH-OCEANVIEW...FERNDALE...BLUE
LAKE...SAMOA...PINE HILLS...CAPETOWN AND HYDESVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4200 12367 4042 12400 4046 12438 4052 12438
      4076 12423 4070 12426 4069 12423 4071 12421
      4081 12419 4076 12422 4077 12423 4099 12412
      4113 12417 4138 12407 4155 12408 4154 12405
      4157 12410 4171 12415 4200 12405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 263DEG 19KT 4095 12434

MKK