Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

Convection is developing over the Mid-Missouri River Valley near
Omaha ahead of a weak vort max dropping in from the north. HRRR has
had a good handle on this convection and brings it into northwest MO
and toward the KC area later tonight toward sunrise. 00Z TOP sounding
indicates a deep enough unstable layer in the boundary layer that
shallow decoupling shouldn't have much effect on MUCAPE values which
are progged to be around 1000 J/kg. Have therefore bumped PoPs up to
as high as 50 percent across northwest MO late tonight and into the
chance category as far south as the KC metro early Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

Tonight through Sunday: As of early this afternoon, a shallow
cumulus field has developed over much of the area. Some of this
activity is slightly more enhanced across eastern Kansas, and may
spawn a few light showers just west of the forecast area through
early evening. A decaying area of showers continues to push southward
over far southeast Nebraska, but is not expected to gain intensity or
coverage. Outside of far northwestern sections of the CWA, the
trajectory should keep most areas dry through this evening. Models
show a weak shortwave trough to move across the region late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Have continued a slight chance for
thunderstorms over the northwest quarter of the forecast area
tonight into tomorrow as this feature moves through, but most
locations should remain dry. Otherwise, similar temperatures are
expected on Sunday, with highs warming into the middle 80s to near 90
degrees.

Monday/Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft with continue over the region,
with maximum temperatures increasing daily with readings in the
upper 80s to middle 90s. Slight chances for thunderstorms will
continue for most sections each day as projected subtle upper
disturbances within the northwest flow move across the area.
Coverage of precipitation is not expected to be widespread nor
persistent for lengthy periods of time.

Wednesday through Saturday: The extended forecast features
increasing probabilities for precipitation with persistent northwest
flow aloft. The general pattern as advertised by numerical models
suggest several upper disturbances to move across the region during
the period, with one or more thunderstorm complexes to develop
upstream and move into portions of the area. Additional
thunderstorms may develop along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
oriented northwest-southeast, located over or just southeast of the
forecast area. While uncertainty remains with regards to the
specifics, the overall pattern provides increasing confidence for
measurable rainfall for many locations during the extended period,
especially during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. In addition,
temperatures will be cooler than earlier in the week with readings
closer to or slightly cooler than seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

Thunderstorms developing near Omaha appear poised to hold together
longer than previously anticipated and could affect the STJ and KC
areas toward sunrise. Chances for storms at these airports are
running around 30 to 40 percent, and therefore introduced VCTS to the
TAFs early Sunday morning. If this activity continues to hold
together prevailing or tempo groups will be needed. Any storms this
far south should be fairly weak in intensity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-032000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AND TUESDAY BUT THE BETTER
 CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
 RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

MOZ001-011-030915-
ATCHISON MO-HOLT MO-
328 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN HOLT
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 325 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKPORT...OR 8 MILES WEST OF TARKIO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...MOUND CITY...ROCKPORT...FAIRFAX...CRAIG...CORNING...
  BIGELOW AND BIG LAKE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 84 AND 117.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4057 9550 4033 9517 4026 9518 4026 9509
      4024 9506 4003 9541 4006 9542 4007 9540
      4012 9540 4019 9549 4024 9548 4026 9556
      4029 9555 4030 9559 4042 9566 4043 9565
      4046 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 320DEG 22KT 4044 9551

CDB