Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Adjusted forecast based on current extrapolation of activity and new
model data. Early morning model runs, particularly the hi-res
version, had a hard time with the initial storms in central Kansas;
but the 12Z runs are starting to more accurately reflect the
current, and therefore expected, activity. Started by pulling POPs
from central to north central Missouri for the rest of the morning
hours based on current radar trends.

Strong moisture advection started across the Plains States overnight
in response to large trough shifting from the Desert Southwest into
the Central Plains. The system was forecast to, and has, slowed
significantly and tilled negatively as it moved into the Plains as a
strong jet streak (> 120kts) dived in under the trough. This has
resulted in a highly meridional flow across the Southern and Central
Plains over night and into this morning; keeping the focus for
instability and resulting thunderstorm activity pinned out in Kansas
for much of this morning. However, the upper level system is
pressing a little farther east post sunrise, with weak insolation
--due to thinning cloud cover-- across far eastern Kansas and northern
Missouri still sufficient to help bring some boundary
destabilization to areas along the Kansas-Missouri-Nebraska-Iowa
border. Complicating matters for later today is a potent dry slot
noted moving into western Kansas and Oklahoma this morning which
will overspread the dryline later today.

Activity to our west will continue to produce cloud cover across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning, which will slow
destabilization through the early afternoon, but the few
breaks in the clouds out there, cold pool generation from existing
storms and the general synoptic shift have pushed the instability,
and storms, east into far western Missouri late this morning. Shear
values are more than sufficient to result in strong to severe storms
this morning, but current wind profiles and radar signatures speak to
these storms being elevated with large hail the major threat for the
rest of the morning and early afternoon activity. Wind threat will
likely have to wait for the storms to become more rooted in the
surface layer early this afternoon. Threat for tornadoes still
exists, and is focused in the early to late afternoon hours in areas
along the north half of the Kansas-Missouri and into Nebraska borders
where helicity values maximize with slightly backed winds ahead of
the dryline, which will be pushing into eastern Kansas early this
afternoon. This dryline will be the potential focus for supercell
development later today if any activity can start before the dry slot
moves in aloft, or can overcome it. Though the cold pool this morning
will push the focus slightly farther east than originally thought.

Current forecast trends indicate that the line of storms in eastern
Kansas will slowly spread east into far western Missouri through the
rest of the morning and early afternoon hours. Farther east more
scattered storms, but potentially severe hailers, could develop
--conditional on cloud cover--. Resulting adjustment to the forecast
has moved from potentially three rounds (one early morning; one early
afternoon; one late afternoon) to more likely one round this
afternoon with the focus a little farther east. Late morning
convection will limit instability and organized shear in far western
Missouri, but as the dry punch aloft arrives this afternoon it will
likely reinvigorate activity in areas east of the Missouri-Kansas
state line --perhaps just east of Kansas City--. Otherwise, the flow
will likely carry storms north northeast, which might lead to
training activity, which given the torrential rain they will likely
result in localized flash flooding issues in areas along the Kansas-
Missouri state line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

If there was any day to be weather aware, today should be that day.
The latest model guidance continues to suggest the potential for
multiple rounds of strong to severe storms beginning by mid-day and
continuing through this evening across the region...with all modes
of severe weather possible.

Round 1:  High-res and short term models have struggled to get a
handle on elevated convection streaming northward across south
central Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Strong 850:700mb theta-e
advection continues to move northeast, with the 06Z NAM finally
capturing a weak 700mb shortwave that will move through the western
third of the CWA through 15Z. Modest MUCAPE values upwards of 1500
J/KG will move across the area, and this may prompt a few stronger
hail producing storms near and shortly after daybreak.

Round 2: Meanwhile, the retreating dryline across west central Kansas
will begin to push eastward after daybreak with moderate to high
instability upwards of 2000 J/KG developing by 15Z. The atmosphere
is expected to become quickly uncapped east of this boundary and as
leading edge of an intense PV anomaly along with 500 mb jet streak
move into central Kansas, convective initiation should begin AOA 15Z.
A corridor of initially discrete supercells may develop and rotate
northeast rapidly before merging into several line segments. While
timing can change, short term models move the leading edge of this
activity into the far western CWA in the 12-1pm time frame. All modes
of severe weather will be possible. While MLCAPE values approach 2000
J/KG, a significant portion of this CAPE will fall within the -10 to
-30C range, with freezing levels AOA 10,500 FT AGL hail up to
baseball size may be possible. Of higher concern will be the tornadic
potential across the CWA. 0-3KM CAPE remains between 150-200 J/KG
with 0-1KM helicity upwards of 150 m2/s2. With the dryline bulging
into NE KS, an even higher tornadic threat could present itself
across SE Nebraska, NE Kansas, NW Missouri, and SW Iowa early Sunday
afternoon where LCLs fall near 1000 ft AGL.

Round 3:  The biggest question of the day, given a slightly faster
progression of severe convection NE through the region this
afternoon, will be if the dryline can reignite a third time late
this afternoon and this evening.  Short term model guidance remains
split on this possibility with the best surface convergence focused
on the southern tail of the dryline over AR/OK/TX and more limited
convergence further north.  The atmosphere ahead of the dryline
over eastern KS and western MO would be highly favorable for
supercell development, again with all modes of SVR possible. High
res models paint the picture of isolated to scattered supercells
along the boundary moving through portions of the CWA into the early
evening.  Obviously, given the significant weather that will move
through the area prior to this evening, this third round of
convection will be highly based on the mesoscale forecast this
afternoon.

If there is good news, it is that convection should quickly move
eastward later this evening, with dry air advecting into the eastern
portions of MO by Monday morning. This should keep any severe threat
NE and E of the CWA Monday afternoon, with windy but dry conditions
locally.

Tuesday-Friday: The vertically stacked upper low will wobble across
the Central Plains through the middle of the week.  Tuesday will be
a chilly and brisk day across the area with convective showers
quickly popping up Tuesday afternoon.  Given placement of the upper
low and surface low, will need to watch for the potential of "cold
air funnels" Tuesday afternoon.

The theme heading into next weekend will be below normal
temperatures and scattered showers each day through Friday. At this
point next weekend looks dry, with temperatures climbing back
towards seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Current thunderstorm activity along the Kansas-Missouri border will
persist into the early afternoon hours before shifting farther east.
Conditions with the storms in the area will range from MVFR rain to
LIFR thunderstorms. Redevelopment of storms looks possible to the
west through the mid afternoon hours, so have kept VCTS through 00Z, but
after that it look like the threat for thunderstorms will move east.
Otherwise, breezy winds will persist into the evening hours before
decoupling late tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
508 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARRENSBURG             38.76N 93.73W
04/27/2014                   JOHNSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN IN WARRENSBURG

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ODESSA                  39.00N 93.95W
04/27/2014                   LAFAYETTE          MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES UPROOTED, MULTIPLE HOUSES WITH ROOF DAMAGE, AND
            SEMI-TRUCKS BLOWN OVER ALONG INTERSTATE 70. MULTIPLE
            ACCIDENTS REPORTED.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
112 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     TSTM WND GST     HIGGINSVILLE            39.06N 93.73W
04/27/2014  M61 MPH          LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
115 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     RICHMOND                39.28N 93.97W
04/27/2014                   RAY                MO   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD SEEN FROM THIS LOCATION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
            DIME SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED AT THIS LOCATION. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     HAIL             WHITEMAN AFB            38.73N 93.55W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            ALSO REPORTED MEASURED 47 KT WIND GUST

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
120 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ODESSA                  39.00N 93.95W
04/27/2014                   LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN, ROOFS OFF STORAGE UNITS, AND 8 INCH
            DIAMETER TREES UPROOTED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PMURRAY