Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 10, 2014Caldwell County, Carroll County, Livingston County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 10, 2014, 6:10 PM CDT for Caldwell County, Carroll County, Livingston County, Missouri. It was in force for 50 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2014, 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Livingston County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 10, 6:20 PM CDT	HAIL 1	4 Se Braymer, MO

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 10, 2:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1969 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 184 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

344 
WUUS53 KEAX 102310
SVREAX
MOC025-033-117-110000-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0103.140510T2310Z-140511T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAYMER...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOSWORTH...HALE...LUDLOW...DAWN...TINA AND AVALON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 9328 3946 9328 3949 9376 3952 9376
      3953 9380 3962 9386 3976 9338 3972 9336
      3970 9336 3970 9335 3954 9328 3954 9329
      3950 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 256DEG 23KT 3955 9374

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BLAIR

2 follow-up statements

545 
WWUS53 KEAX 102317 RRA
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC025-102327-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-140511T0000Z/
CALDWELL MO-
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3948 9328 3946 9328 3950 9375 3963 9375
      3974 9337 3972 9336 3970 9336 3970 9335
      3954 9328 3954 9329 3950 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 256DEG 23KT 3956 9368

$$

MOC033-117-110000-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-140511T0000Z/
CARROLL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON AND NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 615 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BRAYMER...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOSWORTH...HALE...DAWN...TINA AND AVALON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 9328 3946 9328 3950 9375 3963 9375
      3974 9337 3972 9336 3970 9336 3970 9335
      3954 9328 3954 9329 3950 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 256DEG 23KT 3956 9368

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BLAIR

011 
WWUS53 KEAX 102340
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC033-117-102350-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-140511T0000Z/
CARROLL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON AND
NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 3948 9328 3946 9328 3950 9375 3963 9375
      3974 9337 3972 9336 3970 9336 3970 9335
      3954 9328 3954 9329 3950 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 256DEG 23KT 3959 9349

$$

BLAIR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 10, 3:32 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 3:32 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

Primary concern in the next several days will be severe storm
chances across the area. Ongoing convection will expand eastward
this afternoon and this evening, with additional redevelopment
possible in far eastern Kansas by early evening. MUCAPE in the
3000-4000 J/kg range and bulk shear around 50 kts will support
supercellular structures and very large hail. Storm bases are
currently around 5-6 kft, possibly also supporting damaging winds
but decreasing the tornado threat. A warm front currently stretching
southeast from Maryville through Marshall, MO will continue to lift
northeast, and may serve as the only focus for isolated tornado
potential this afternoon.

Storms will begin to weaken after dark as surface-based instability
decreases in the warm sector, and the warm front should lift into
IA. Any ongoing storms will begin to lift back to the north as the
low-level jet increases tonight, and could strengthen slightly
towards daybreak, but are not expected to become severe.

For Sunday, most daytime severe activity should focus along the warm
front in southern Iowa, far southeast Nebraska, and possibly
portions of northeast Kansas. These storms will very likely be
severe along the warm front, but should stay mainly north of the CWA
until the boundary starts pushing southeastward after 00z. The main
hazards should be damaging winds and perhaps some severe hail as the
storms make their southeastward push later in the evening, and the
most likely period for severe weather on Sunday for the majority of
the CWA should be between 8 PM - 2 AM along the cold frontal
boundary.

The boundary may still linger in the far southeastern CWA when it
re-fires on Monday afternoon, but the period for any strong to
severe storms will be rather brief. Afterward, a few post-frontal
showers may linger across central MO, but much quieter and cooler
conditions are expected.

Little to no change to the extended forecast period. The main story
for most of next week will be cooler temperatures and a few small
chances for light rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this
afternoon, and will spread eastward during the evening. Some of these
storms could be severe. Additional, weaker thunderstorms are expected
from the overnight hours through Sunday, and should focus mainly in
northeast KS and far northwest MO through Sunday afternoon. In areas
not impacted by thunderstorms, ceilings should stay mainly VFR and
winds will be breezy out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 12:20 PM CDT, 5 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111730-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...SOME DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
 OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
 WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 5:48 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             2 E LAREDO              40.03N 93.41W
05/10/2014  E1.50 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

Local storm report, May 10, 5:52 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             1 S RICHMOND            39.26N 93.97W
05/10/2014  E1.75 INCH       RAY                MO   PUBLIC

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, May 10, 5:55 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             1 N GLADSTONE           39.22N 94.56W
05/10/2014  E2.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, May 10, 6:00 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             2 E LAREDO              40.03N 93.41W
05/10/2014  E1.75 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   PUBLIC

&&

LAFLIN

Local storm report, May 10, 6:01 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             3 S BROWNING            39.99N 93.16W
05/10/2014  E1.75 INCH       LINN               MO   PUBLIC

            BREAKING WINDOWS

&&

LAFLIN

Local storm report, May 10, 6:09 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TORNADO          2 N LEXINGTON           39.21N 93.87W
05/10/2014                   RAY                MO   STORM CHASER

            CONFIRMED BY STORM CHASER

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 2:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Nodaway	52 min
May 10, 2:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Holt, Nodaway	47 min
May 10, 3:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Nodaway, Worth	42 min
May 10, 3:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	51 min
May 10, 3:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Harrison	48 min
May 10, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Platte	46 min
May 10, 4:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Clinton	40 min
May 10, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Nodaway	57 min
May 10, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Mercer	50 min
May 10, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Platte	40 min
May 10, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	49 min
May 10, 5:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Ray	30 min
May 10, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	DeKalb, Gentry	53 min
May 10, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Sullivan	50 min
May 10, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Platte	47 min
May 10, 5:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Daviess, Grundy, Livingston	53 min
May 10, 5:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Lafayette, Ray	33 min
May 10, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Linn, Macon, Sullivan	47 min
May 10, 6:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Ray	28 min
May 10, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Saline	48 min
May 10, 6:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Platte	61 min
May 10, 6:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Macon	53 min
May 10, 6:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Macon	16 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.