River Flood Warning 69, NWS Kansas City, MO

992 
WGUS83 KEAX 060137
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
   

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC005-087-060207-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-140707T0624Z/
/FFXM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
837 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* At  8:15 PM Saturday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 16.5 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 9.4 feet by Monday morning.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   14.9   Sat 08 PM   15.3 early Sunday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

For today and tonight, the main forecast challenge will be whether
or not convection can redevelop late this afternoon along remnant
outflow boundaries/temperature gradients left over from morning
convection. A decent shortwave trough will drop southward through
the region tonight and could help spark this convection, but stable,
cool air over most of the CWA may prevent thunderstorm development
in spite of that wave. High-resolution models continue to initiate
convection around 22-23z, but also continue to shift initiation west
of the CWA where clear skies and breezy southwest winds have allowed
temperatures to warm into the 90s. This seems like the most likely
scenario given current conditions and cloud cover, so have trended
PoPs downward this evening and tonight but still allowed for the
possibility of precipitation with the shortwave trough. If storms
do initiate over the forecast area tonight, the lack of upper-level
flow and thus any deep layer shear will keep severe weather chances
low.

Hot temperatures in the mid 90s and the recent return to upper 60s
dewpoints will result in 100-103 degree heat indices both tomorrow
and Monday across most of the region. Does not look like a heat
advisory is needed at this time, but will be something to watch with
future forecast issuances.

Next decent chance for thunderstorms will come Monday night into
early Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough kicks a cold front
through the region. Models have been fairly consistent with this
feature, so continued to raise precipitation chances across the
northern half of the CWA. Precipitation chances drop off south of
I-70 as the shortwave trough exits the region to the east and
forcing along the cold front diminishes on Tuesday, but cold pool
interactions or any change in the track of the wave could change
this slightly. Slightly cooler temperatures and drier conditions
should follow behind the front, however; southerly surface flow,
thunderstorm chances, warmer temperatures should return by late
Thursday or Friday through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

Areas of thunderstorms will continue to push east northeast early
this afternoon, but outflow from these storms will modify wind
direction across most of the area for at least the next 1-2 hours.
East northeast winds in the wake of the storms will eventually
transition back to south this afternoon, occasionally gusting to 20
kts or greater. Thunderstorms may redevelop late this afternoon or
this evening near KSTJ, and if they develop, could push southward
into KMCI and KMKC by 02-03z. Otherwise, ceilings should remain VFR
through the rest of the period, and winds will remain out of the
south to south southwest at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1246 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
 LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND
 NORTHEASTERN KANSAS PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
 NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS HOWEVER HAZARDOUS
 WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
 MIDWEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE AREA. THE
 STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
 WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STORMS THAT
 DO BECOME SEVERE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
 THREATS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF