River Flood Warning 46, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

Short term Tonight through Wednesday.

Main focus is on an approaching upper level trough currently over
the NRN and CNTRL Rockies. The trough is progged to rapidly deepen
as it moves out over the NRN/CNTRL Plains later tonight.  The system
has already generated a line of thunderstorms across CO and NE and
these should increase in areal coverage and head east toward the
CWA.  The models differ insofar as timing with the precip.  The NAM
is faster due to it doesn't deepen the trough as fast as the GFS and
EC. The GFS and EC quickly close an upper level parent low west of
the CWA thus slowly the troughs overall translational eastward
progresses. As a result the leading edge of the widespread precip is
much slower in working into the CWA...after 12Z tomorrow. There may
be a storm or two very late tonight across the CWA on the nose of
WAA and rapid moisture advection. The inherited pops were maintained
should the NAM verify but now have this evening dry Through midnight.
Nearly all the models agree on a southern shift to the QPF where now
it appears locations south of I-70 will receive the largest rainfall
amounts.  The threat for SVR storms appears very low due to limited
instability.  However, locally heavy rainfall may become a factor
for flash flooding and river flooding during the day on Monday. The
system hangs over the region through Tuesday before we start to see
dry conditions and clearing skies.  Wednesday should be dry with
near normal temps ahead of the next system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

The extended time period will be characterized by a continued
progressive flow with the chance for a few rounds of precipitation
and a return to near normal temperatures. In the wake of the upper
level closed low (which will alter the progressive pattern during
the short term) moving east into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday,
the flow will again become progressive.

Wednesday night an upper level shortwave trough will move through
the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will force an
associated cold front into the local area bringing another round of
showers and thunderstorms which will persist into Thursday. Thursday
night through Friday look to remain dry. Yet another shortwave
traversing the northern Plains will force another cold front into
the area Saturday/Saturday night and another round of thunderstorms
will be possible.

With the flow being quasi-zonal through most of this period,
temperatures will reside near normal. Thursday and Friday highs will
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday and Sunday highs will be
in the low to mid 80s which is normal this time of year as the
average high at MCI is 83/84 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

IFR CIGS are slowly improving at the terminals late this morning and
should become BKN with MFVR to VFR by late this afternoon. SFC winds
will remain rather light and generally out of the southeast through
the period. Tonight the clouds should stick around ahead of a
approaching storm system that will bring in widespread rain and
thunderstorms. Have timed the arrival of the leading edge of the
storms based on latest model data.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Pietrycha

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
124 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091830-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
124 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. NO ORGANIZED
 SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT HEAVY RAIN COULD EXACERBATE ONGOING
 RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION..

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF