Alert archive / Kansas / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 140, NWS Kansas City, MO

October 1, 2014Leavenworth County, Kansas; Platte County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Oct 1, 2014, 2:49 PM CDT for Leavenworth County, Kansas; Platte County, Missouri. It took effect at Oct 3, 2014, 2:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 62 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 1, 2014, 2:49 PM CDT (19:49 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 3, 2014, 2:00 AM CDT
Expired
Oct 5, 2014, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
62 hr
Issued by
NWS Kansas City, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Leavenworth County, KS, Platte County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Missouri River at Leavenworth (LEVK1).

Action stage
17 ft
Minor stage
20 ft
Moderate stage
24 ft
Major stage
30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06820475, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

473 
WGUS43 KEAX 011949
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 
flood warning for the following rivers in Kansas...Missouri...

  Missouri River at St Joseph affecting Doniphan...Andrew and 
  Buchanan Counties.

  Missouri River at Atchison affecting Atchison...Buchanan and Platte
  Counties.

  Missouri River at Leavenworth affecting Leavenworth and Platte 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

KSC043-MOC003-021-021949-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0138.141002T1226Z-141006T1410Z/
/SJSM7.2.ER.141002T1226Z.141003T1200Z.141005T1410Z.NO/
249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Missouri River at St Joseph.
* from Thursday morning to Monday morning.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 24.0 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late Sunday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...A residential area in northwest St. Joseph begins to
  flood.
* At 21.0 feet...Riverfront Park in St. Joseph begins to flood.
* At 19.0 feet...Backwater from the Missouri River floods property 
  along the Nodaway river at Nodaway, Missouri.
* At 17.0 feet...Lowland flooding upstream and downstream from St. 
  Joseph occurs.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  St Joseph       17   13.2   Wed 02 PM   24.0 Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3991 9501 3990 9489 3975 9483 3964 9488 3970 9505

  

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-021949-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0139.141003T0300Z-141005T2230Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.141003T0300Z.141004T0000Z.141004T2230Z.NO/
249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Missouri River at Atchison.
* from Thursday evening to Sunday afternoon.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 24.7 
  feet Friday evening.
* At 22.0 feet...Low-lying areas on the Missouri side of the river 
  begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Atchison        22   Not Available      24.7 Friday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3970 9505 3964 9488 3942 9493 3942 9508 3958 9516

  

$$

KSC103-MOC165-021949-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0140.141003T0700Z-141005T2100Z/
/LEVK1.1.ER.141003T0700Z.141004T0000Z.141004T2100Z.NO/
249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Missouri River at Leavenworth.
* from late Thursday night to Sunday afternoon.
* At  2:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Friday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 22.0 feet by Friday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Lowland flooding occurs along the east and west 
  banks of the river.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Leavenworth     20   10.3   Wed 02 PM   22.0 Friday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3942 9508 3942 9492 3918 9460 3913 9460 3918 9484

  

$$
3 follow-up statements
128 
WGUS83 KEAX 020117
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
   

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St Joseph affecting Doniphan...Andrew and Buchanan
  Counties.

  Missouri River at Atchison affecting Atchison...Buchanan and Platte 
  Counties.

  Missouri River at Leavenworth affecting Leavenworth and Platte 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

KSC043-MOC003-021-030117-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0138.141002T1036Z-141006T1800Z/
/SJSM7.2.ER.141002T1036Z.141003T1200Z.141005T1800Z.NO/
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at St Joseph.
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 22.2 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Sunday afternoon.
* At 21.0 feet...Riverfront Park in St. Joseph begins to flood.
* At 19.0 feet...Backwater from the Missouri River floods property 
  along the Nodaway river at Nodaway, Missouri.
* At 17.0 feet...Lowland flooding upstream and downstream from St. 
  Joseph occurs.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  St Joseph       17   13.4   Wed 07 PM   22.2 Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3991 9501 3990 9489 3975 9483 3964 9488 3970 9505

  

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-030117-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0139.141003T0500Z-141005T1500Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.141003T0500Z.141003T1800Z.141004T1500Z.NO/
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at Atchison.
* from late Thursday night to Sunday morning.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 23.1 
  feet early Friday afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...Low-lying areas on the Missouri side of the river 
  begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Atchison        22                      23.1 early Friday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3970 9505 3964 9488 3942 9493 3942 9508 3958 9516

  

$$

KSC103-MOC165-030117-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0140.141003T1124Z-141005T1200Z/
/LEVK1.1.ER.141003T1124Z.141004T0000Z.141004T1200Z.NO/
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at Leavenworth.
* from Friday morning to Sunday morning.
* At  8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to
  rise to near 20.6 feet by Friday evening. The river will fall below
  flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Lowland flooding occurs along the east and west 
  banks of the river.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Leavenworth     20   10.5   Wed 08 PM   20.6 Friday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3942 9508 3942 9492 3918 9460 3913 9460 3918 9484

  

$$
061 
WGUS83 KEAX 020644
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
   

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St Joseph affecting Doniphan...Andrew and Buchanan
  Counties.

  Moniteau Creek near Fayette affecting Howard County.

  Petite Saline Creek near Boonville affecting Cooper County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Kansas...

  Blackwater River near Blue Lick affecting Cooper and Saline 
  Counties.
  Lamine River near Otterville affecting Cooper County.
  Missouri River at Atchison affecting Atchison...Buchanan and Platte
  Counties.
  Missouri River at Leavenworth affecting Leavenworth and Platte 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC053-195-030644-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0141.141004T0949Z-141005T2315Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.141004T0949Z.141004T1800Z.141004T2315Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Blackwater River near Blue Lick.
* from late Friday night to Sunday evening.
* At 12:45 AM Thursday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 24.7 feet by early Saturday afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* At 24.0 feet...Cropland and pastures along the river flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Blackwater River
  Blue Lick       24    8.3   Thu 01 AM   24.7 early Saturday 
afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3894 9342 3899 9348 3903 9297 3894 9295 3893 9323

  

$$

MOC053-030644-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0142.141002T1809Z-141004T1234Z/
/OTTM7.2.ER.141002T1809Z.141003T0000Z.141003T1234Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lamine River near Otterville.
* from this afternoon to Saturday morning.
* At  1:15 AM Thursday the stage was 5.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 18.6 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Friday morning.
* At 18.0 feet...Some gravel roads upstream and downstream from 
  Otterville are under water. In addition State Highway 135 may be 
  overtopped by flood waters 2 miles north of Clifton City.
* At 15.0 feet...Low lying woodlands and fields along the river 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Lamine River
  Otterville      15    5.2   Thu 01 AM   18.6 this evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3869 9303 3887 9305 3894 9304 3894 9298 3869 9294

  

$$

KSC043-MOC003-021-030644-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0138.141002T1042Z-141006T1800Z/
/SJSM7.2.ER.141002T1042Z.141003T1200Z.141005T1800Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at St Joseph.
* from early this morning to Monday afternoon.
* At  1:30 AM Thursday the stage was 15.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 22.2 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Sunday afternoon.
* At 21.0 feet...Riverfront Park in St. Joseph begins to flood.
* At 19.0 feet...Backwater from the Missouri River floods property 
  along the Nodaway river at Nodaway, Missouri.
* At 17.0 feet...Lowland flooding upstream and downstream from St. 
  Joseph occurs.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  St Joseph       17   15.0   Thu 01 AM   22.2 Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3991 9501 3990 9489 3975 9483 3964 9488 3970 9505

  

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-030644-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0139.141003T0500Z-141005T1500Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.141003T0500Z.141003T1800Z.141004T1500Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at Atchison.
* from late tonight to Sunday morning.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 23.1 
  feet early Friday afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...Low-lying areas on the Missouri side of the river 
  begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Atchison        22                      23.1 early Friday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3970 9505 3964 9488 3942 9493 3942 9508 3958 9516

  

$$

KSC103-MOC165-030644-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0140.141003T1124Z-141005T1200Z/
/LEVK1.1.ER.141003T1124Z.141004T0000Z.141004T1200Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at Leavenworth.
* from Friday morning to Sunday morning.
* At  1:00 AM Thursday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to
  rise to near 20.6 feet by Friday evening. The river will fall below
  flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Lowland flooding occurs along the east and west 
  banks of the river.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Leavenworth     20   10.9   Thu 01 AM   20.6 Friday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3942 9508 3942 9492 3918 9460 3913 9460 3918 9484

  

$$

MOC089-030643-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0136.141002T0852Z-141004T0507Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.141002T0852Z.141002T1700Z.141003T0507Z.UU/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Moniteau Creek near Fayette.
* until late Friday night.
* At  1:30 AM Thursday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 20.0 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Friday morning.
* At 16.0 feet...Low-lying fields along Moniteau Creek flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Moniteau Creek
  Fayette         16    8.3   Thu 01 AM   20.0 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3914 9259 3914 9252 3902 9256 3903 9262

  

$$

MOC053-030643-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0143.000000T0000Z-141004T2209Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.141002T1242Z.141003T0600Z.141003T2209Z.UU/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Petite Saline Creek near Boonville.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 12:30 AM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 19.4 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall
  below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 19.5 feet...The creek floods U Highway about 4 miles southeast 
  of Boonville.
* At 16.0 feet...Low lying woodlands and fields near the creek flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Petite Saline Creek
  Boonville       16   14.3   Thu 12 AM   19.4 early Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3892 9280 3894 9264 3892 9250 3888 9252 3887 9279

  

$$

MOC005-087-020714-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0137.000000T0000Z-141003T1224Z/
/FFXM7.2.ER.141001T1914Z.141002T0030Z.141002T0542Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* At  1:15 AM Thursday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 12:42 AM Thursday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 12.7 feet by Friday 
  morning.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   16.6   Thu 01 AM   14.9 this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$
997 
WGUS83 KEAX 021457
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
957 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
   

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kansas...Missouri...

  Missouri River at Leavenworth affecting Leavenworth and Platte 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St Joseph affecting Doniphan...Andrew and Buchanan
  Counties.

  Missouri River at Atchison affecting Atchison...Buchanan and Platte 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

KSC043-MOC003-021-031457-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0138.000000T0000Z-141005T1800Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.141002T1109Z.141003T0600Z.141004T1800Z.NO/
957 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at St Joseph.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Thursday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by 
  early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Saturday afternoon.
* At 19.0 feet...Backwater from the Missouri River floods property 
  along the Nodaway river at Nodaway, Missouri.
* At 17.0 feet...Lowland flooding upstream and downstream from St. 
  Joseph occurs.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  St Joseph       17   18.2   Thu 09 AM   20.5 early Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3991 9501 3990 9489 3975 9483 3964 9488 3970 9505

  

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-031457-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0139.141003T1200Z-141004T1200Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.141003T1200Z.141003T1200Z.141003T1200Z.NO/
957 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at Atchison.
* from Friday morning to Saturday morning.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
  morning.
* At 22.0 feet...Low-lying areas on the Missouri side of the river 
  begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Atchison        22   18.8   Thu 08 AM   22.0 Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3970 9505 3964 9488 3942 9493 3942 9508 3958 9516

  

$$

KSC103-MOC165-021527-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0140.000000T0000Z-141005T1200Z/
/LEVK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
957 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Missouri River at Leavenworth.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  18.4 feet Friday morning.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Missouri River
  Leavenworth     20   12.3   Thu 09 AM   18.4 Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3942 9508 3942 9492 3918 9460 3913 9460 3918 9484

  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 1, 1:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 1, 1:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Short Term (Today through Tomorrow Night):

The main weather concerns for this forecast package will be the
potential for a couple rounds of severe storms. The first of these
potential rounds of severe storms is expected to affect the western
CWA this evening/tonight. A second round of severe weather will
again be possible for most of the CWA on Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri this morning with a few showers further east.
Showers have been training over those areas for several hours and
radar estimates about 1.00"-1.50" of precip has already fallen across
these areas. Luckily, flash flood guidance for these areas is high,
around 3.5"-4.0" for 6 hours. Nonetheless this will be an area that
will have to be monitored with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms likely over the next 48 hours. These storms will
continue to move slowly eastward over the CWA through the morning
hours. Cloud cover and showers through the morning hours will cause
instability to be slow to recover across the area this afternoon
however, thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across eastern
Kansas where skies may clear out earlier. This evening looks to be
the best chance for severe thunderstorms to develop as a lead
shortwave ejects out from an upper level trough across the eastern
Rockies. This will occur as a 40-50kt 850mb southwesterly LLJ get
ramped up across eastern Kansas. Models are depicting a weak surface
boundary bisecting the CWA. Good instability and lift will make large
hail and damaging winds the main threats this evening/tonight across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. However with the weak surface
boundary in the area there is some potential for tornadic
development. 0-6km shear will be good with the swly LLJ at 850mb and
a 80-90kt mid level jet impinging on the area. However, 0-1km shear
is not as strong as winds near the surface will be light...what is of
more concern is that they are backed to the SSE. So, the most likely
scenario is that initial convection develops as supercells across
eastern Kansas with the initial threats being large hail/damaging
winds with a possible tornado or two. Supercells should eventually
merge into a more linear structure with damaging winds and perhaps an
isolated tornado being the main threat as storms move into western
Missouri.

Storms will continue through the early morning hours Thursday across
the CWA weakening toward daybreak as the LLJ weakens. We will then
again turn our attention to the west as the aforementioned upper
level trough digs as it moves out into Plains and forces a strong
cold front into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west
of the area early Thursday along the front forming a line of storms.
These storms will push into the area on Thursday with the main
threat being damaging winds. The front should finally push east of
the area by Thursday evening. The upper level trough will move
through Thursday night. Some models try to develop instability
showers as the upper trough rotates through but dry air and
subsidence behind the front should undercut any chance for showers.
Two day rain totals could be on the order of 2.5"-3.5" however as
mentioned previously, flash flood guidance is not expected to be
exceeded over any locale.

Long Term (Friday - Tuesday):

The extended period looks much more benign then the short term
providing cold and dry conditions with a gradual warm up through the
period. On Friday, a reinforcing upper level trough will move
through the upper Midwest putting the local area under cool NW flow
aloft. Highs Friday and Saturday will only be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s with frost being a concern for Saturday morning as lows
drop into the mid to upper 30s. Northwest flow begins to relax
across the area by the second half of the weekend in to beginning of
next week. By Tuesday, highs will return to near normal with highs
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Weak isolated convection developing across west-central MO this
afternoon in advance of mid-level energy approaching from the west.
Bulk of this activity should be fairly weak and have started all
sites with a VCTS mention to account for current radar trends.
Heading into tonight...fcst models show redeveloping convection along
a lingering outflow boundary which is apparent on VIS satellite
imagery this afternoon. Latest model trends suggest this activity
should largely remain south of area terminals. In any
event...increasing warm air advection along and north of feature will
set the stage for developing low stratus at area terminals during the
early morning hrs. Beyond this...convection looks to increase after
15z from west to east as main cold front approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 1, 1:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
105 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
 STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
 THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. SOME STORMS MAY
 BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE
 AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS ALONG
 THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE
 OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
 ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
 FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 1, 2:00 PM CDT, 49 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MOZ038-039-044-045-011930-
JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-PETTIS MO-SALINE MO-
200 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SALINE AND
NORTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAFAYETTE AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

AT 157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WARRENSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...KNOB NOSTER...CONCORDIA...SWEET
  SPRINGS...LA MONTE...HOUSTONIA...FAYETTEVILLE...EMMA AND
  HUGHESVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 70.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3907 9339 3876 9322 3863 9376 3893 9392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 231DEG 32KT 3878 9370

AEP
Local storm report, Oct 1, 2:24 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
224 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     HAIL             WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE 38.73N 93.55W
10/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   OTHER FEDERAL

&&
Local storm report, Oct 1, 2:41 PM CDT, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
241 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             6 S WARRENSBURG         38.68N 93.74W
10/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 2:49 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXDoniphan5 days
Oct 1, 2:49 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXAtchison4 days
Oct 1, 3:02 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchEAXLinn, Miami28 hr
Oct 1, 3:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn52 min
Oct 1, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn, Miami50 min
Oct 1, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Miami34 min
Oct 1, 5:22 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXAndrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb and 5 more4 hr
Oct 1, 2:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXJohnson30 min
Oct 1, 2:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHenry, Johnson50 min
Oct 1, 2:15 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXHoward56 hr
Oct 1, 2:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Lafayette, Pettis, Saline45 min
Oct 1, 2:39 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXAtchison, Holt28 hr
Oct 1, 2:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCooper, Howard, Johnson, Pettis, Saline43 min
Oct 1, 3:07 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXCooper, Pettis25 min
Oct 1, 3:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCooper51 min
Oct 1, 4:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXBates, Cass42 min
Oct 1, 4:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXCass52 min
Oct 1, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCass, Jackson39 min
Oct 1, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJackson28 min
Oct 1, 5:53 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXClay52 min
Oct 1, 5:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHenry38 min
Oct 1, 6:31 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXPettis21 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2014River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2014Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.