River Flood Warning 12, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Main focus for this afternoons forecast package is squarely on any
continuing potential for severe weather through the late afternoon
and evening hours.

The leading line of convective activity has taken much of the day to
move east across our section of Kansas and Missouri owing to the
vertically stacked nature of the upper level through that is
swinging into the Plains States. This convection brought reports of
large hail and damaging winds, but has also brought cooler --upper
50s into the 60s-- more stable air. Storms that redeveloped across
extreme northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas are moving rapidly --50
mph-- to the north northeast. This redeveloping line of storms are
quickly moving into a airmass that is still well worked over from
early activity --temperatures in the low 60s over dew points in the
50s-- with a decent easterly component to the surface wind. These
storms have struggled to reach severe limits as a result. However,
still watching areas of northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas as
the agitated CU field --seen arching back to the northwest across
Manhattan KS-- is growing pointing at the next region of
development. Models continue to advertise this activity growing over
the next couple of hours along the dry line, but the dry slot aloft
my inhibit growth despite the boundary destabilizing. Ultimately,
current expectations are that the storms will continue to percolate
along the dryline, shifting north northeast into far western
Missouri through the late afternoon and early evening hours.
However, the focus for robust severe storms looks to slide east into
southern Missouri, while areas farther north through Kansas City
will likely have to deal with elevated convection and the attendant
torrential rain and large hail threat. Convection will start to fade
as the sunsets this evening across the northern half of Missouri,
with the activity spreading north northeast and fading going into
the evening hours.

Monday on through the work week...haven't changed much. The trough
moving into the Plains today is still expected to take its time
moving across the nation as it detaches form the main progressive
flow. Result, cool temperatures with showers possible on and off
through the week. Expect highs to likely be limited to the 50s
Tuesday through Thursday with overnight lows around 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Terminals across Kansas City will have a couple hours of thunderstorm
activity this evening before this last round of activity moves to the
east. After that, VFR conditions are expected as drier air spreads
east. Otherwise, winds will be a bit gusty into the evening hours
before calming a little as they decouple late tonight, though gusty
southwest winds are then expected to move into after sunrise Monday
morning as a dry cold front sweeps through.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
239 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.