Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 112, NWS Kansas City, MO

September 9, 2014Atchison County, Holt County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Sep 9, 2014, 7:46 PM CDT for Atchison County, Holt County, Missouri. It took effect at Sep 9, 2014, 9:39 PM CDT. It was in force for 57 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 9, 2014, 7:46 PM CDT (00:46 UTC)
In effect from: Sep 9, 2014, 9:39 PM CDT
Expired: Sep 12, 2014, 6:19 AM CDT
In force: 57 hr
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Moderate

Counties Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Tarkio River near Fairfax (FFXM7). The gauge peaked at 23.82 ft at Sep 10, 2014, 5:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 12 ft
Minor stage: 17 ft
Moderate stage: 18 ft
Major stage: 25 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06813000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

012 
WGUS43 KEAX 100046
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
746 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014
  

...The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 
flood warning for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC005-087-110046-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0112.140910T1432Z-140912T1119Z/
/FFXM7.2.ER.140910T1432Z.140911T0000Z.140911T1119Z.NO/
746 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* from Wednesday morning to Friday morning.
* At  7:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late Wednesday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 23.6 feet by Wednesday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Thursday morning.
* At 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in the vicinity of Corning.
* At 18.0 feet...U.S. Highway 59 north of Fairfax begins to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Low-lying farm fields begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17    9.0   Tue 07 PM   23.6 Wednesday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

5 follow-up statements

047 
WGUS43 KEAX 100240
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
940 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014
  

...Observed flooding changed from Moderate to Moderate severity for 
the following rivers in Missouri...

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the 
following rivers in Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC005-087-110240-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0112.140910T0239Z-140912T1228Z/
/FFXM7.3.ER.140910T0150Z.140910T1800Z.140911T1228Z.NR/
940 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tarkio River at Fairfax.

* until Friday morning.
* At  9:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 28.2 feet by 
  early Wednesday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday morning.
* At 25.6 feet...Flood waters will reach the intersection of State 
  Highway J and U.S. Highway 59 on the west side of Fairfax.
* At 25.0 feet...Levees in the vicinity of Fairfax are overtopped. 
  Flooding of farmland along with homesteads and roads occurs.
* At 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in the vicinity of Corning.
* At 18.0 feet...U.S. Highway 59 north of Fairfax begins to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Low-lying farm fields begin to flood.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   18.9   Tue 09 PM   28.2 early Wednesday 
afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

141 
WGUS83 KEAX 100734
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
234 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014
   

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  102 River at Maryville affecting Andrew and Nodaway Counties.

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC003-147-110734-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0114.140910T1424Z-140912T0537Z/
/MYVM7.1.ER.140910T1424Z.140911T0000Z.140911T0537Z.UU/
234 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The 102 River at Maryville.
* from this morning to late Thursday night.
* At  1:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue
  to rise to near 19.5 feet by this evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Thursday morning.
* At 18.0 feet...The east bank of the river floods. Water also 
  approaches the village of Arkoe.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Maryville       18   15.2   Wed 01 AM   19.5 this evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4057 9477 4013 9478 4013 9488 4057 9488

  

$$

MOC005-087-110734-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-140912T2322Z/
/FFXM7.2.ER.140910T0150Z.140910T1800Z.140911T2322Z.NO/
234 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* until Friday evening.
* At  2:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.8 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday evening.
* At 25.6 feet...Flood waters will reach the intersection of State 
  Highway J and U.S. Highway 59 on the west side of Fairfax.
* At 25.0 feet...Levees in the vicinity of Fairfax are overtopped. 
  Flooding of farmland along with homesteads and roads occurs.
* At 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in the vicinity of Corning.
* At 18.0 feet...U.S. Highway 59 north of Fairfax begins to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Low-lying farm fields begin to flood.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   23.7   Wed 02 AM   24.8 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

862 
WGUS83 KEAX 101417
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
917 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014
   
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  102 River at Maryville affecting Andrew and Nodaway Counties.

  102 River at Rosendale affecting Andrew and Buchanan Counties.

  Nodaway River near Burlington Junction affecting Andrew...Holt and 
  Nodaway Counties.

  Platte River near Agency affecting Buchanan County.

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC003-147-111417-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-140912T0027Z/
/MYVM7.1.ER.140910T0841Z.140910T1300Z.140911T0027Z.UU/
917 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The 102 River at Maryville.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  8:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* At 18.0 feet...The east bank of the river floods. Water also 
  approaches the village of Arkoe.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Maryville       18   21.5   Wed 08 AM   21.5 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4057 9477 4013 9478 4013 9488 4057 9488

$$

MOC003-021-111417-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-140912T1128Z/
/RSDM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.140910T1800Z.140911T1128Z.NR/
917 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The 102 River at Rosendale.
* until Friday morning.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 22.1 
  feet this afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...State Route 48 is flooded on the east and west sides
  of town which prevents travel in or out of town.
* At 19.0 feet...State Route 48 on the east and west sides of 
  Rosendale is under water.
* At 18.0 feet...State Route 48 on the east side of Rosendale is 
  overtopped by flood waters.
* At 13.0 feet...Lowland agricultural flooding begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Rosendale       18   Not Available      22.1 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4013 9488 4013 9478 3977 9471 3977 9480 4004 9486

  

$$

MOC003-087-147-111417-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0113.140910T1700Z-140912T0216Z/
/BRLM7.1.ER.140910T1700Z.140910T1800Z.140911T0216Z.UU/
917 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Nodaway River near Burlington Junction.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  8:28 AM Wednesday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 24.1 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall below
  flood stage by tonight.
* At 23.0 feet...The river begins to flood farm fields.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Nodaway River
  Burlington Jun  23   19.0   Wed 08 AM   24.1 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4058 9507 4058 9500 4018 9503 4018 9512 4044 9512

  

$$

MOC021-111417-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-140914T0451Z/
/AGYM7.2.ER.140910T1133Z.140911T0600Z.140913T0451Z.NO/
917 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River near Agency.
* until Saturday evening.
* At  8:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 22.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.5 feet by 
  early Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Friday before midnight.
* At 25.0 feet...Flooding begins at the east border of Agency.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying areas east of Agency begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Agency          20   22.9   Wed 08 AM   27.5 early Thursday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3977 9480 3977 9471 3951 9464 3941 9464 3941 9472

 
$$

MOC005-087-111417-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-140912T0224Z/
/FFXM7.2.ER.140910T0150Z.140910T1000Z.140911T0224Z.NO/
917 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  8:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* At 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in the vicinity of Corning.
* At 18.0 feet...U.S. Highway 59 north of Fairfax begins to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Low-lying farm fields begin to flood.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   23.8   Wed 08 AM   23.4 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  
$$

258 
WGUS83 KEAX 110206
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
906 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014
   

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  102 River at Maryville affecting Andrew and Nodaway Counties.

  102 River at Rosendale affecting Andrew and Buchanan Counties.

  Platte River near Agency affecting Buchanan County.

  Platte River At Sharps Station affecting Platte County.

  Platte River near Platte City affecting Platte County.

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC003-147-120206-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-140912T0352Z/
/MYVM7.1.ER.140910T0841Z.140910T2015Z.140911T0352Z.UU/
906 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The 102 River at Maryville.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* At 18.0 feet...The east bank of the river floods. Water also 
  approaches the village of Arkoe.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Maryville       18   20.2   Wed 08 PM   16.0 early Thursday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4057 9477 4013 9478 4013 9488 4057 9488

  

$$

MOC003-021-120206-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-140912T1352Z/
/RSDM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.140910T2108Z.140911T1352Z.NO/
906 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The 102 River at Rosendale.
* until Friday morning.
* At  4:08 PM Wednesday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Thursday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...State Route 48 is flooded on the east and west sides
  of town which prevents travel in or out of town.
* At 19.0 feet...State Route 48 on the east and west sides of 
  Rosendale is under water.
* At 18.0 feet...State Route 48 on the east side of Rosendale is 
  overtopped by flood waters.
* At 13.0 feet...Lowland agricultural flooding begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Rosendale       18   21.2   Wed 04 PM   20.7 early Thursday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4013 9488 4013 9478 3977 9471 3977 9480 4004 9486

  

$$

MOC021-120206-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-140914T0525Z/
/AGYM7.2.ER.140910T1133Z.140912T0000Z.140913T0525Z.NO/
906 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River near Agency.
* until late Saturday night.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 25.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.6 feet by 
  Thursday evening. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Saturday morning.
* At 25.0 feet...Flooding begins at the east border of Agency.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying areas east of Agency begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Agency          20   25.4   Wed 08 PM   26.6 Thursday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3977 9480 3977 9471 3951 9464 3941 9464 3941 9472

  

$$

MOC165-120206-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0126.140912T1800Z-140915T1120Z/
/SSTM7.1.ER.140912T1800Z.140913T1800Z.140914T1120Z.NO/
906 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River At Sharps Station.
* from Friday afternoon to Monday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Friday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 27.1 feet by early Saturday afternoon. The
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* At 26.0 feet...Low-lying rural land along the river begins to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Sharps Station  26   20.4   Wed 08 PM   27.1 early Saturday 
afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3941 9474 3941 9464 3935 9476 3939 9479

  

$$

MOC165-120205-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0127.140912T1200Z-140915T2004Z/
/PLCM7.1.ER.140912T1200Z.140914T0000Z.140914T2004Z.UU/
906 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River near Platte City.
* from Friday morning to Monday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 1.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to
  rise to near 24.1 feet by Saturday evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* At 25.0 feet...Water overtops 1st Street in Tracy, Missouri.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding occurs at Humphreys Access Area which is 
  located 5 miles downstream from Platte City. 300 acres of pasture 
  are also flooded.
* At 20.0 feet...Cropland near State Highway 92 near Platte City 
  begins to flood.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Platte City     20    1.0   Wed 09 AM   24.1 Saturday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9479 3935 9476 3927 9481 3929 9484 3933 9483

  

$$

MOC005-087-120205-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-140912T0513Z/
/FFXM7.2.ER.140910T0150Z.140910T1000Z.140911T0513Z.NO/
906 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* until late Thursday night.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Thursday morning.
* At 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in the vicinity of Corning.
* At 18.0 feet...U.S. Highway 59 north of Fairfax begins to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Low-lying farm fields begin to flood.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   19.6   Wed 08 PM   16.5 early Thursday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

120 
WGUS83 KEAX 110643
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
143 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014
   

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC005-087-110713-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-140912T0513Z/
/FFXM7.2.ER.140910T0150Z.140910T1000Z.140911T0510Z.NO/
143 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* At  1:15 AM Thursday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 12:10 AM Thursday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.4 feet by Friday 
  morning.
* At 17.0 feet...Low-lying farm fields begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   16.4   Thu 01 AM   14.5 this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Sep 9, 6:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 6:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

The main focus in the near term is the severe potential for this
afternoon and overnight tonight. The various NWP differ with respect
to development and timing and are having a tough time depicting the
current warm air advection induced convection across eastern NE and
IA. For this fcst issuance have stayed the course with the best
chance for surface based storms developing across the northwestern
counties, per VIS satellite and radar trends. The convection should
then spread across the CWA overnight tonight. The Flash Flood Watch
that is in effect beginning 00Z tonight through 12Z tomorrow looks on
track as that area should see training storms producing a large swath
of rainfall of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts. As for the
hail, wind, and tornado threats, those too have the higher
probabilities across our northern zones this evening as that is where
the best supportive shear and instability exist well into the
overnight hours. The activity should continue well into the night
with straight line winds being the main issue of concern, though QLCS
issues may develop if a line can consolidate over the CWA.

The precip should slowly end from northwest to southeast very late
tonight into tomorrow morning with the passage of a cold front. The
exception should be our far south central and southeast zones where
showers and scattered storms will linger well into the day on
Wednesday.  Once that activity moves off the entire CWA should see
very cool temperatures for Thursday and Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Strong cold air advection will continue on Friday, holding highs in
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees -- nearly 25 degrees below seasonal
normals. A few light showers are possible as the upper trough moves
over Friday and Friday evening, then surface high pressure will
build in for Saturday and Sunday, keeping temperatures cool and
precipitation chances nil.

Return flow on the back side of the high will allow temperatures to
warm back into the 70s by Monday, while flow gradually flattens to
zonal and allows a few disturbances to float back into the region,
creating lower-end chances for showers and storms for the beginning
of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Thunderstorms currently over northwest and far northern Missouri will
gradually build southeast during the evening and overnight hours,
eventually reaching KSTJ by 02z and the MCI/MKC terminals around 04z.
Some isolated development is possible out ahead of these storms, but
will not be as widespread. Low level wind shear will be possible
tonight after 06z as winds between 1-2 kft increase to 60 to 70 kts
out of the southwest. By 12z-15z Wednesday morning, a cold front will
sweep through all terminals, clear out any lingering precipitation,
and veer winds around to the northwest at 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017.

&&

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 9, 7:35 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
735 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-110045-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
735 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
 NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
 LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS WILL
 GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND WILL
 EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT.

 AREAS OF FLOODING ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT AS
 MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO CROSS INTO THE AREA. A
 WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
 HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 9, 6:53 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TARKIO                  40.44N 95.38W
09/09/2014                   ATCHISON           MO   911 CALL CENTER

            MANY STREETS HAVE A FOOT OF WATER OVER THEM IN TARKIO AND
            ON AA HIGHWAY NORTH OF TARKIO.

&&

ADOLPHSON

Local storm report, Sep 9, 7:12 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
712 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TORNADO          MAITLAND                40.20N 95.07W
09/09/2014                   HOLT               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND NEAR MAITLAND

&&

ADOLPHSON

Local storm report, Sep 9, 7:24 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
724 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAITLAND                40.20N 95.07W
09/09/2014                   HOLT               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

ADOLPHSON

Local storm report, Sep 9, 7:38 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
738 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TORNADO          EAGLEVILLE              40.47N 93.99W
09/09/2014                   HARRISON           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO...POWER LINES DOWN ON ROAD NEAR
            EAGLEVILLE

&&

ADOLPHSON

Local storm report, Sep 9, 7:41 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
741 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GRAHAM                  40.20N 95.04W
09/09/2014                   NODAWAY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED SEEING A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR
            GRAHAM, MO AT HWYS A AND H.

&&

KBRONIS

Local storm report, Sep 9, 7:43 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
743 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TORNADO          EAGLEVILLE              40.47N 93.99W
09/09/2014                   HARRISON           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            US HIGHWAY 69 PARTIALLY BLOCKED...POWER POLES DOWN AND
            SNAPPED.

&&

ADOLPHSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 9, 7:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Andrew, Holt, Nodaway	25 min
Sep 9, 7:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Harrison	30 min
Sep 9, 7:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Andrew, Holt, Nodaway	31 min
Sep 9, 7:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Harrison, Mercer	25 min
Sep 9, 7:44 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Holt, Nodaway	6 hr
Sep 9, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Holt, Nodaway	43 min
Sep 9, 7:54 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Holt, Nodaway	55 hr
Sep 9, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Harrison, Mercer	49 min
Sep 9, 8:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, DeKalb, Gentry	49 min
Sep 9, 9:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, DeKalb	38 min
Sep 9, 9:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew	6 hr
Sep 9, 9:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Grundy, Linn, Macon, Sullivan	45 min
Sep 9, 10:33 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Linn and 2 more	6 hr
Sep 9, 10:36 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Nodaway	56 hr
Sep 9, 10:36 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan	67 hr
Sep 9, 10:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Sullivan	6 hr
Sep 9, 11:39 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	19 hr
Sep 9, 11:42 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Macon	5 hr
Sep 10, 12:11 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison	8 hr
Sep 10, 1:45 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Gentry	3 days
Sep 10, 1:45 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Livingston	4 days
Sep 10, 1:45 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Livingston	5 days
Sep 10, 1:45 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Linn, Livingston	7 days
Sep 10, 1:45 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton	9 days
Sep 10, 1:45 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Grundy, Livingston	48 hr
Sep 10, 1:49 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Buchanan	5 days
Sep 10, 2:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan	4 days
Sep 10, 4:27 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Chariton, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Macon and 1 more	6 hr
Sep 10, 5:01 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Macon	4 days
Sep 10, 6:34 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway, Worth	12 hr
Sep 10, 7:11 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Macon, Putnam, Schuyler	35 hr
Sep 10, 9:12 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Platte	5 days
Sep 10, 9:12 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Platte	5 days
Sep 10, 9:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Platte	51 hr
Sep 10, 9:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Ray	71 hr
Sep 10, 9:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	4 days
Sep 10, 9:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Saline	4 days
Sep 10, 9:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Saline	6 days
Sep 10, 9:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Howard, Saline	6 days
Sep 10, 9:31 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard	6 days
Sep 10, 10:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Carroll, Chariton, Grundy, Linn, Livingston and 4 more	8 hr
Sep 10, 5:40 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Caldwell, Chariton, Daviess and 15 more	24 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2014 Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.