Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Kansas City, MO

736 
WWUS83 KEAX 172233
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

...FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING...

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ001-002-011-012-020-028-172345-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140318T0000Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-
NODAWAY-HOLT-ANDREW-BUCHANAN-PLATTE-
533 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG AND 
GUSTY WINDS...FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...011...012...020... 
025...028...102...103...104 AND 105...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS 
EVENING...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE THROUGH THE EVENING 
DIMINISHING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

Most areas in the forecast area are experiencing a chilly morning
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s under mostly
clear skies. This cold weather will be short-lived as surface high
pressure shifts to the east this morning, with surface winds
becoming southerly and increasing during the day and remaining
breezy into tonight. A notable increase in H85 temperatures will
overspread the area today, with a +10C increase projected over the
next 24 hours. Afternoon temperatures will respond to this
increasing warm air advection, with highs in the upper 50s over
eastern Kansas, with cooler conditions further east over north
central Missouri with readings in the upper 40s. Overnight lows
tonight will remain above freezing in most sections.

A strong upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will
swing through the Central Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, low
pressure will move across northern Missouri or southern Iowa with an
associated cold front clearing the forecast area Tuesday evening.
Ahead of the frontal boundary, temperatures will warm into the
middle 50s to middle 60s. There will be a chance of precipitation
near and to the north/west of the surface low track. The highest
potential for precipitation will be north of Interstate 70 Tuesday
afternoon through midnight. While the initial precipitation will be
in the form of rain, forecast soundings suggest this quick shot of
modest cold-air advection may allow for some of the precipitation to
mix or change to snow before the precipitation ends from west to
east. At this time, only a trace of snowfall is expected and no
widespread impacts are expected. Otherwise, strong west to northwest
winds of 20-25mph with higher gusts will overspread the region
Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

Mainly quiet conditions are expected in the long-range forecast
period as broad northwest to zonal flow continues across the central
CONUS. Highs Wednesday through Friday will gradually warm from the
mid 50s into the mid 60s, and lows should remain around normal in
the 30s. A shortwave trough will push a surface cold front through
the region early Saturday morning, dropping highs into the upper 40s
to lower 50s for the weekend; however, a lack of moisture associated
with the system should keep the CWA dry as the front passes. A
stronger shortwave trough will drop through the region early next
week, possibly bringing light rain showers to the area for Monday
and Monday night. Any rainfall accumulations with the Monday system
are expected to be light.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

VFR conditions are expected at TAF sites with periods of high clouds.
Southerly winds will increase by midday and remain gusty through the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
445 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-180945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
445 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
 MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 LIGHT RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN
 FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF