Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO

570 
WWUS83 KEAX 131649
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

.TODAY A COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER DANGER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AND DEEPEN.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WARNING AREA. WINDS MAY BE
MARGINAL FOR A WARNING...BUT FINE FUELS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE WELL
CURED AND TINDER...SO ANY LITTLE SPARK SHOULD CARRY A FLAME EASILY.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE MARGINAL THE WIND
GUSTS WILL SUPPORT THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES SHOULD ONE IGNITE. 

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001-002-004-011>013-020>022-028>031-
037>039-043>046-053-054-140000-
/O.CON.KEAX.FW.W.0006.140313T1800Z-140314T0000Z/
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-GENTRY-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-JACKSON-
LAFAYETTE-SALINE-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1149 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...
002...004...011...012...013...020...021...022...025...028...029...
030...031...037...038...039...043...044...045...046...053...054...
057...060...102...103...104 AND 105...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025 ATCHISON 
  KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 057 MIAMI...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 LINN 
  KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102 DONIPHAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103 
  LEAVENWORTH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104 WYANDOTTE AND FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 105 JOHNSON KS. IN MISSOURI...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 
  ATCHISON MO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 002 NODAWAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 004 GENTRY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 011 HOLT...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 012 ANDREW...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 DE KALB...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 020 BUCHANAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 CLINTON...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 022 CALDWELL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 PLATTE...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 029 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 030 RAY...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 031 CARROLL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 037 JACKSON...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 038 LAFAYETTE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 
  SALINE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 043 CASS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 044 
  JOHNSON MO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 045 PETTIS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  046 COOPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 053 BATES AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  054 HENRY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 60S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES...PARTICULARLY OVER GRASSY AREAS...WILL 
  HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SPREADING RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO 
  NORTHEAST. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

CDB

688 
WWUS83 KEAX 132357
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

...FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING...

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001-002-004-011>013-020>022-028>031-
037>039-043>046-053-054-140100-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140314T0000Z/
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-GENTRY-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-JACKSON-
LAFAYETTE-SALINE-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
657 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DRY AND BREEZING
 CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...004...
011...012...013...020...021...022...025...028...029...030...031...
037...038...039...043...044...045...046...053...054...057...060...
102...103...104 AND 105...

UNTIL THE SUN SETS BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN...AS WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE...WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 25 PERCENT. ONCE THE SUN SETS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER 10 TO 15 MPH...AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP OVERNIGHT
TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT BY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE COOLED
ENOUGH THE GET RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BACK UP INTO THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Satellite and upper air observations show a northwest flow in place
across our section of the Nation early this morning. Fortunately, we
are on the warm side of the resulting prevailing westerlies aloft,
and look to stay there --for the most part-- over the next week with
occasional week shortwave trough shifting through the Plains States
which will knock temperatures down for a day here and there with the
occasional chance at some precipitation.

Main focus for today through Saturday will be the beautiful
weather, which will bring use some Fire Weather concerns today. More
specifics found in the Fire Weather section of this discussion below,
but the short version is that it will be dry and windy today.
Otherwise...highs todays will likely range across the 60s in most
areas with a high around 70 all across areas near the Kansas-
Missouri-Nebraska borders. A weak trough will move across the Plains
late tonight with a weak cold front, though temperatures wont feel
much cooler behind the front as highs in the 60s are still expected
Friday and Saturday as the prevailing jet stream will keep the
coldest of the air sliding to our east.

Next chance for precipitation will arrive Saturday night as a
southern stream shortwave trough zips east across the Southern
Plains while a northern stream trough starts shearing across the
Northern and Central Plains. Some rain, or a little snow, might get
squeezed out between these two features Saturday night into Sunday.
Potential doesn't look great, but it's there. However, even IF any
precipitation does develop QPF for the event in Northern Missouri
will be low. Temperatures Sunday will be some 20 degrees colder --in
the 30s and 40s--, but never fear as readings will begin to rebound
Monday. Highs next work week currently looking to range around to a
little above normal as we generally remain on the warm side of the
still persistent northwest flow.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Today a combination of well above normal temperatures and breezy
winds will significantly raise fire weather concerns through this
afternoon. Dewpoints will start the day in the 20s and wont climb
much --if at all-- through the day, especially as the boundary layer
mixes out this afternoon. Confidence in the low humidities that will
result is very high. Only forecast issue seems to be wind speeds, and
whether they will hit Red Flag criteria today. Current winds as
forecast are marginal for a warning, but fine fuels this time of
year are well cured and tinder, so any little spark should carry a
flame easily. Additionally, while forecast winds are marginal the
reality of the gusts this afternoon along with marginal winds speeds
is enough to warrant going with a Red Flag Warning. Have issued one
for areas from northwest Missouri through east central Kansas and
central Missouri. Currently, north central to northeast Missouri are
expected to maintain slight higher dewpoints today, but that could
change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Forecast still on track for light SW winds picking up mid day on
Thursday, lasting through the afternoon before dissipating in the
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ001-002-004-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>039-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-132030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
330 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF