Frost Advisory 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

864 
WWUS73 KEAX 170303
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1003 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS...

KSZ025-102-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-171200-
/O.CON.KEAX.FR.Y.0002.140517T0900Z-140517T1200Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-
MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-
SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...TARKIO...MARYVILLE...
GRANT CITY...ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...PRINCETON...
UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...DOWNING...MOUND CITY...OREGON...
SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...MILAN...
GREEN CITY...KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...HAMILTON...
POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...LA PLATA...RICHMOND...
CARROLLTON...SALISBURY...KEYTESVILLE...MOBERLY
1003 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY. 

* TEMPERATURES: WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S DURING THE PRE-DAWN 
  HOURS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S. 

* IMPACTS: PATCHY FROST IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO FORM DURING 
  THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING. ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS 
  LEFT UNCOVERED OUTDOORS COULD BE DAMAGED OR KILLED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

CDB

690 
WWUS73 KEAX 171154
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

KSZ025-102-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-171300-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140517T1200Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-
MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-
SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...TARKIO...MARYVILLE...
GRANT CITY...ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...PRINCETON...
UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...DOWNING...MOUND CITY...OREGON...
SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...MILAN...
GREEN CITY...KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...HAMILTON...
POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...LA PLATA...RICHMOND...
CARROLLTON...SALISBURY...KEYTESVILLE...MOBERLY
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL FROST FORMATION.


$$

LAFLIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

Vorticity max/shortwave dropping SSE through SD in concert with
layered frontogenesis will generate an increasing area of showers
across eastern KS and west central/southern MO later this afternoon
and evening. Hi-Res and local models as well as 12z NAM have shifted
the area of rain a bit further east into . Given current
satellite/radar trends this seems reasonable. Main thing was to
increase PoPs over the southwest 1/4 of the CWA and extend them into
the early evening hours.

Still contemplating the need for another frost advisory. Clouds may
linger over the far southern counties so may be able to keep them out
if I decide on an advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

Below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions will continue
today through the weekend, although a warming trend should begin
Saturday and will continue through next week. High temperatures this
afternoon should be very similar to yesterday; however, north winds
are expected to be quite a bit lighter, and showers associated with
the upper trough should stay northeast of the forecast area. A
narrow area of light rain showers associated with a shortwave trough/
frontogenesis band may scrape the far southern edge of the forecast
area during the late afternoon and early evening hours, but should
not impact more than a few miles of the CWA. Lingering surface high
pressure and subsidence north of the frontal band should recreate
this morning's temperatures early Saturday, potentially resulting in
another frost across the region. Will delay the issuance of another
frost advisory until the occurrence and coverage of frost in similar
conditions can be evaluated this morning, but an advisory may be
needed for tonight/Saturday morning.

Ridging will begin to build across the central Plains on Saturday,
allowing slightly warmer temperatures to build into the area late in
the day. High pressure will keep surface winds light and prevent
mixing of the warmest temperatures on Saturday, but a return to
southerly flow is expected for Sunday, helping temperatures to bump
back up into the upper 60s to around 70. No additional precipitation
is expected until possibly Sunday night, when warm air advection
ahead of deepening lee-side low pressure potentially fires up some
nocturnal showers and storms across the central and eastern Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

By Monday, surface high pressure shifts to the east, with a warm
front projected to move back into the area upon strong warm air
advection. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible upon
increasing isentropic ascent. Otherwise, weak upper level ridging
will remain in place over much of the work week. Afternoon
temperatures will likewise respond with highs in the 80s Tuesday
through Thursday. Operational guidance is in decent agreement in
bringing a cold front near the Missouri-Iowa border on Wednesday,
with the boundary eventually becoming stationary over/just north of
the forecast area. This is expected to bring increasing chances of
thunderstorms during the latter half of the work week. With little
immediate change to the upper pattern over the region, no large
scale changes are expected to the weather pattern towards the end of
the forecast period, continuing chances for thunderstorms and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

Will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast. Mid level ceilings
between 7-10k ft are expected to spread east into west central MO
later this afternoon and linger through the evening. An upper level
system diving SSE through SD will generate a band of showers with the
bulk of them passing just south of KMCI/KMKC. Winds will remain light
as weak high pressure builds in late tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-171800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
 AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

 THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER
 CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
 WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF