Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Kansas City, MO

421 
WGUS73 KEAX 210924
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
424 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

MOC005-210939-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140621T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON MO-
424 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ATCHISON COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4059 9571 4058 9520 4048 9520 4048 9518
      4044 9518 4030 9565 4032 9566 4034 9563
      4041 9566 4044 9565 4048 9570 4049 9569
      4051 9570 4052 9566 4054 9566 4056 9568
      4052 9570 4052 9576 4058 9578

$$

LAFLIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

This afternoon - evening:

There are several different, subtle features helping to produce
thunderstorms this afternoon. The first is a northwest to southeast
theta-e discontinuity that helped to trigger storms in our
southeastern zones. The second is an east to west oriented outflow
boundary that settled into our northeastern zones and helped trigger
a few showers and storms through Macon county. Instability is
strongest in our southwest where perhaps as much as 4000 to 5000 J/kg
of surface based CAPE is present. Shear is very weak so there will be
little potential for storms to become organized. But given the
extreme instability and the high downdraft CAPE values, the
southwestern storms will have the potential to produce strong
downburst winds. With little ability for storm organization, these
storms should diminish/die off at or around sunset.

Tonight:

Focus will then shift to the activity developing over Nebraska along
a stationary front. Instability is also extreme along that boundary
and shear is marginally better so there is some better potential for
storms to organize, develop a cold pool and slide to the southeast.
However, models are in decent agreement that this potential complex
of storms will weaken considerably as it does so, likely a result of
the shear decreasing rapidly further south. For now, have maintained
low PoPs across our northwest and eventually all of northern
Missouri through the overnight hours to account for the potential of
a convective system to impact that area.

Saturday:

Similar conditions to Friday are expected Saturday with high
instability and weak shear. However there will likely be remnant
outflow boundaries in the area. Forecast soundings already indicate
a nearly uncapped environment so with a little bit of forcing from
any boundary, convection should readily develop. Given the weak
shear, strong downburst winds seem most likely with the strongest
storms. They should also be mainly diurnal with dissipation/decay
around or soon after sunset.

Sunday - Monday:

Medium range models continue to show good agreement in moving a
convective complex across Kansas and into Missouri Sunday night into
Monday. This is driven by an upper-level shortwave trough moving
through the mainly quasi-zonal upper flow. Have continued to trend
higher on QPF amounts and have kept PoPs in the high likely
category.

Tuesday - Friday:

The upper pattern will remain mainly zonal however, models begin to
lose their consistency with the ECMWF showing broad but shallow
ridging across the CONUS and the GFS and the GEM showing broad
troughing over the eastern half of the country with ridging building
into the Rockies for Wednesday that then spreads east later in the
week. Models are almost out of phase with the upper pattern by the
end of the week so confidence really decreases. Overall, the forecast
calls for below normal highs through mid week with a trend towards
near normal late in the week. With no real change in the low-level
moisture, there could periodic chances for storms as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail with little change in wind
speed/direction. Occasional periods of scattered cloud cover expected
from cirrus and diurnal cumulus. Chances for precipitation should
remain off to the north and east of terminals tonight into Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
909 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-220215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
909 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LOW. OTHERWISE, HEAVY
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

MOZ001>003-011-210345-
ATCHISON MO-HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-WORTH MO-
1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON...WESTERN WORTH...
NODAWAY AND NORTHERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1004 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES NORTH OF
BEDFORD TO 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF COIN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF COIN TO
18 MILES NORTH OF NEBRASKA CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH PRECEDE THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY 10 TO 20 MINUTES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...MARYVILLE...BURLINGTON JUNCTION...HOPKINS...SKIDMORE...
  ROCKPORT...FAIRFAX...MAITLAND...RAVENWOOD...ELMO...WESTBORO...
  CLEARMONT...QUITMAN...PICKERING...SHERIDAN...WATSON...PARNELL...
  PHELPS CITY...GRAHAM AND ARKOE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 99 AND 123.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4057 9433 4039 9453 4039 9460 4031 9460
      4015 9477 4027 9556 4029 9555 4030 9559
      4037 9565 4041 9566 4045 9565 4047 9570
      4051 9570 4052 9566 4054 9566 4056 9568
      4052 9570 4052 9575 4059 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 329DEG 31KT 4113 9478 4088 9499
          4070 9537 4091 9579

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

MOZ001-002-210530-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY MO-
1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TARKIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WESTBORO.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 123.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4058 9503 4033 9543 4052 9566 4056 9567
      4056 9568 4055 9569 4056 9571 4059 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 227DEG 20KT 4049 9536

LAFLIN