Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

The departing MCS provided many areas with modest rainfall amounts,
especially for locations north of I-70 and promoted the flash flood
warnings for our far north central and north eastern counties.
Fortunately the CWA should remain dry overnight tonight and through
the day on Sunday so we can dry out a tad before the next system
arrives late Sunday night into Monday. There may be an isolated
shower during the day tomorrow, but I'm leaving pops out at this
time given the very low chances for a shower/storm. Temperatures for
tomorrow will be below normal with light southeasterly winds as the
region lies under quiet flow aloft. Tomorrow night a trough will
approach out of the Rockies and begin to produce precip over the
CNTRL Plains.  The NAM is faster than the GFS in bringing the
activity into the CWA late Sunday night with hefty rainfall amounts
by 12Z Monday. For now have trended pops to be higher across the WRN
zones for Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

The zonal flow that has been in place the past week will begin to
breakdown on Monday. This will occur due to an upper level trough
digging through the central and southern Plains on the day Monday.
This trough will then close off an upper level low across Kansas on
Monday. An associated surface front will move into the area early on
Monday and showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region.
PWAT values on Monday continue to range in the 1.50"-1.75" range
which means there is potential for the area to have yet another
significant rainfall event. And, as such, continued/new river
flooding as well as flash flooding will be a concern on Monday. To
further compound the potential for heavy rainfall, is the continued
model suggestion that as this system closes off across the area it
also slows significantly. This will keep rain chances in the
forecast through Monday night and into Tuesday and perhaps even into
Tuesday night. Wednesday however, the closed low will finally shift
east into the Ohio River Valley and conditions should remain dry.
This may also allow temps to finally creep back up into the (lower)
80s.

Beyond Wednesday, model solutions diverge. The GFS reverts back to
zonal flow whereas the EC and Canadian try to build weak upper level
ridging into the area. The GFS would produce yet another round of
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday while the EC and GEM remain
dry. Beyond the Thursday time period basically kept the forecast as
inherited from the initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

A departing cluster of storms will create varying CIGS this
afternoon...down to OVC020 at times. There may also be a brief
shower or two but should not last more than say 15 min and not impact
VIS. The winds will remain out of the north northwest. Tonight the
low clouds should diminish so expecting VFR CIGS and VIS with light
northerly winds. Tomorrow the winds will be out of the southeast with
VFR CIGS AND VIS.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Pietrycha

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-082015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
 TUESDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT HEAVY RAIN
 COULD EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
148 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSW LANCASTER         40.46N 92.55W
06/07/2014                   SCHUYLER           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE WATER FLOWING OVER THEM BETWEEN
            LANCASTER AND QUEEN CITY.

&&

PMURRAY