Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL IOWA BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5MPH SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS OF 3 PM SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF NOTICEABLY WEAKER WITH THIS EVENINGS SHORTWAVE.

MODELS DEPICT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH THE  APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHORTWAVE.
WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOTICEABLY WEAKER WITH HIS ENERGY...THE
GFS...GEM...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL AGREE ON THE SHORTWAVE EXITING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 06 UTC ON TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 4 UTC ON TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRIER
AIR SPILLING TO THE REGION ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS DEPICT SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
DEW POINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
THIS FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEING SPILLING INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNSET. SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER MIDNIGHT THINGS TURN MUCH MORE
INTERESTING.

TUESDAY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THESE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWFA IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO DAWN. THERE IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

THE STORM COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
DECAY. FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOL AIR COMING OFF THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RECORD COOL MAXES WILL BE CHALLENGED AT
DUBUQUE AND MOLINE. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC
NUMBERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM GENESIS REGION SHOULD BE ALONG
THE IA/MO BORDER WITH THE COMPLEX MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTH
HALF TO THIRD OF THE AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
IA/MO BORDER INTO ILLINOIS.

THE OVERALL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL VARY
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME 3 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE HANDLING OF A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE AREA BUT THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE
HANDLING OF THE CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A VERY
REAL POSSIBILITY THAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH COOL FRONT THAT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS UNTIL 04/04Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS AND
ARE HANDLED AS A TEMPO GROUP. AFTER 04/04Z...SKIES WILL BECOME FAIR
WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. PATCHY AVIATION
FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 04/09Z DUE TO LIGHT A VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 MILES. VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WITH FAIR
SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 3 TO 8 KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR AUGUST 6TH

DUBUQUE...68 IN 1989
MOLINE....72 IN 1932

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...08

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
530 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

IAZ089-ILZ024>026-042330-
DES MOINES-HENDERSON-MERCER-WARREN-
530 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...

AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIGGSVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OQUAWKA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KIRKWOOD AROUND 540 PM CDT...
  MONMOUTH AROUND 555 PM CDT...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 4095 9096 4114 9044 4075 9044 4074 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 257DEG 23KT 4084 9084

NICHOLS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

IAZ064-065-067-050030-
CEDAR-JOHNSON-MUSCATINE-
648 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...

AT 646 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORALVILLE...OR NEAR IOWA CITY...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS AROUND 705 PM CDT...
  UNIVERSITY OF IOWA AND IOWA CITY AROUND 710 PM CDT...
  6 MILES WEST OF WEST BRANCH AROUND 730 PM CDT...

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 4178 9128 4154 9132 4162 9175 4180 9171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 278DEG 9KT 4170 9161

NICHOLS