Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Quad Cities, IA

156 
WWUS53 KDVN 210045
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
745 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

IAC097-ILC015-085-210145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140521T0145Z/
JACKSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-CARROLL IL-
745 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL...SOUTHERN JO DAVIESS AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

AT 741 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANDREW...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGBROOK...BELLEVUE...GREEN ISLAND...HANOVER...ELIZABETH...
WOODBINE...MASSBACH...STOCKTON...SMITHS...AIKEN...RICE...BLANDING...
WHITTON...RODDEN...NORTH HANOVER...ELMOVILLE AND STOCKTON AIRPORT.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BELLEVUE STATE PARK...MISSISSIPPI
PALISADES STATE PARK...ELIZABETH FAIRGROUNDS...CAMP FAR HORIZONS...
DUCK CREEK COUNTY PARK AND SPRUCE CREEK PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.

&&

LAT...LON 4214 9063 4223 9067 4227 9065 4230 9061
      4236 9055 4236 8996 4214 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 267DEG 26KT 4221 9050

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

982 
WWUS53 KDVN 210050
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

IAC097-ILC015-085-210145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140521T0145Z/
JACKSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-CARROLL IL-
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL...SOUTHERN JO DAVIESS AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

AT 746 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGBROOK...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLEVUE...GREEN ISLAND...HANOVER...ELIZABETH...WOODBINE...
MASSBACH...STOCKTON...SMITHS...AIKEN...RICE...BLANDING...WHITTON...
RODDEN...NORTH HANOVER...ELMOVILLE AND STOCKTON AIRPORT.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BELLEVUE STATE PARK...MISSISSIPPI
PALISADES STATE PARK...ELIZABETH FAIRGROUNDS...CAMP FAR HORIZONS...
DUCK CREEK COUNTY PARK AND SPRUCE CREEK PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4214 9059 4223 9062 4227 9060 4231 9057
      4236 9050 4236 8996 4214 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 267DEG 26KT 4221 9046

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ERVIN

932 
WWUS53 KDVN 210105
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
805 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

IAC097-ILC015-085-210145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140521T0145Z/
JACKSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-CARROLL IL-
805 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL...SOUTHERN JO DAVIESS AND CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

AT 805 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HANOVER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HANOVER...ELIZABETH...WOODBINE...MASSBACH...STOCKTON...NORTH
HANOVER...ELMOVILLE AND STOCKTON AIRPORT.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BELLEVUE STATE PARK...MISSISSIPPI
PALISADES STATE PARK...ELIZABETH FAIRGROUNDS...CAMP FAR HORIZONS...
DUCK CREEK COUNTY PARK AND SPRUCE CREEK PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4214 9050 4221 9051 4226 9048 4231 9045
      4236 9038 4236 8996 4214 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 267DEG 26KT 4221 9030

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ERVIN

579 
WWUS53 KDVN 210115
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

IAC097-ILC015-085-210145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140521T0145Z/
JACKSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-CARROLL IL-
815 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL...SOUTHERN JO DAVIESS AND EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

AT 814 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN
ISLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MASSBACH AND ELMOVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BELLEVUE STATE PARK...MISSISSIPPI
PALISADES STATE PARK...CAMP FAR HORIZONS AND DUCK CREEK COUNTY PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4220 9046 4224 9045 4227 9042 4230 9037
      4230 8997 4214 8997 4214 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 287DEG 23KT 4218 9024

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ERVIN

005 
WWUS53 KDVN 210129
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
829 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

IAC097-210139-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140521T0145Z/
JACKSON IA-
829 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4230 8997 4215 8997 4214 8998 4214 9021
      4216 9023 4218 9023 4222 9025 4228 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 285DEG 23KT 4217 9011

$$

ILC015-085-210145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140521T0145Z/
JO DAVIESS IL-CARROLL IL-
829 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL AND SOUTH CENTRAL JO DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 828 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
MASSBACH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELMOVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE MISSISSIPPI PALISADES STATE PARK AND
CAMP FAR HORIZONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4230 8997 4215 8997 4214 8998 4214 9021
      4216 9023 4218 9023 4222 9025 4228 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 285DEG 23KT 4217 9011

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

ERVIN

170 
WWUS53 KDVN 210142
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
842 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

ILC015-085-210153-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140521T0145Z/
JO DAVIESS IL-CARROLL IL-
842 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JO DAVIESS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4230 8997 4215 8997 4214 8998 4214 9021
      4216 9023 4218 9023 4222 9025 4228 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 285DEG 23KT 4214 8999

$$

ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING TOWARDS OUR FAR NW CWA WITH VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO 2500 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF
8 TO 9 C/KM. CU/TCU WAS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM OUR FAR
NORTHERN CWA BACK WEST TO OMAHA. MODEST CAPPING IN PLACE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EML SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. IF THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE THIS WOULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT BUT
THERE IS NOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING THEN WARM BUT LESS HUMID ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...RAPID REFRESH MESO MODEL
SUGGESTS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ROUGHLY FROM I-80 NORTHWARD 4-9 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL SEVERE TOOLS ANALYSIS INDICATES HAIL TO
ABOUT GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH. THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS ONLY 20 KNOTS SO THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUITE
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT NOT ZERO. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY COLD
POOLS THAT MAY FORM AND INCREASING FORWARD SPEEDS OF LINE SEGMENTS
THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
DIMINISH ABOUT 9 PM AS WE LOWER THE CAPE WITH THE SCATTERED STORMS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE RATHER SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH IS
LIKELY. HOWEVER... ANY REPEATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE OVER AN INCH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR NW CWA LATER THIS EVENING
REACHING OUR FAR SE COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
FAR NW TO THE MID 60S SE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE CWA
FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS SHOULD BRING A PLEASANTLY WARM DAY WITH
LOWERING HUMIDITY AS DEW POINTS DROP THROUGH THE 50S. ALSO PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER MO AND MS RVR VALLEY LLVL
RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO DUMP DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
PERIOD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING TO LEE OF WEST COAST REX BLOCK AMPLIFIES
UPSTREAM CARS THE WESTERN PLAINS. WEST-TO-EAST LLVL BOUNDARY/FRONT
TO TEMPORARILY GET HUNG UP UNDER THE RIDGE/S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACRS
KS INTO MO WED NIGHT. MORE OPTIMUM NORTHERLY THTA-E FEED AND
CONVERGENCE TO SET UP MCS SPAWNING GROUNDS FROM EASTERN CO ACRS
SOUTHERN NEB AND KS...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING
IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA IN DECAYING ALMOST DEBRIS FASHION
INTO THU MORNING. COOL LOWS IN TH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY THU
MORNING NORTH OF I80. LONG FETCH LLVL MOISTURE CONVEYOR OFF THE
WESTERN GULF AND THEN WRAPPING AROUND UP THROUGH MEXICO THROUGH THE
LEE SIDE ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH VORT SPOKES OFF SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WESTERLY HIGH PLAINS THU INTO THU NIGHT.
WITH SEASONABLY STOUT LLVL RIDGE ESTABLISHING ACRS THE WESTERN GRT
LKS ALMOST BACKDOOR STYLE...DRYING NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW AND
NORTH-WESTERLIES FURTHER ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE IT/S
PRECIP SHUNTING/EATING EFFECT AS ANYTHING ELEVATED TRIES TO COME ACRS
FROM THE CENTRAL TO NW HIGH PLAINS. THE NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF IS
ACTUALLY MORE BULLISH WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA GETTING IN
UNDER SOME OF THIS ELEVATED SHOWER/ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS JUST CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWEST
OR ARE MAINLY DRY THU INTO THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS A COMPROMISE...BUT CURRENTLY PROGGED STRENGTH OF
RIDGE MAKES FOR A LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. LLVL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SOME LK MI EFFECT...AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS
FILTERING THE INSOLATION SHOULD MAKE FOR JUST 70S BOTH THU AND FRI.
WHERE CIRRUS BLOW OFF THINNEST COULD MAKE FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THU AND FRI NIGHTS IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST
AREA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST BLOCKED
PATTERN TO EDGE EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH BOTH SFC
AND UPPER RIDGING TO LEE OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW COMPLEX MAKING
FOR MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WX THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE 12Z GFS
WOULD BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...UNTIL ELEVATED WINGS OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLY RIDGE-RIDE/DRIFT ACRS THE CWA FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A TYPE OF
ELEVATED MCS ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN TRENDS AND FEATURE RECOGNITION SUGGEST THE
GFS MORE ON TRACK. IF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND ELEVATED SHOWERS DECAY
ENOUGH...EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COULD BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S ON SUNDAY WITH SFC DPT INCREASE BACK AT LEAST TO THE LOWER
60S.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING WITH RESPECT TO
THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WHERE IT GOES/SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OR TRIES
TO UNDERCUT MORE EASTWARD/...AND STRENGTH OF LINGERING RIDGE COMPLEX
ALL NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. IT COULD BE WHERE THE LOCAL AREA REMAIN
LARGELY DRY AND WARMING INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WHILE THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY/MN INTO WI/ STAY ACTIVE AMD WET. CURRENT LONG
RANGE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAMPENING AND OPENING
UP UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MORE SCTRD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY NEXT TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY
REIGNS AND COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE UNDERCUTTING EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE CYCLONE MAKES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80 AS IT LOOKS ATTIM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS AWAY FROM THE STORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND SHIFT SOUTH OF
I-80 OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. WINDS SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-211545-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE OR LARGER THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A NEAR DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

HAASE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

IAZ051-052-210100-
BENTON-LINN-
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...

AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VINTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  URBANA AROUND 715 PM CDT...
  SHELLSBURG AROUND 720 PM CDT...
  CENTER POINT AROUND 730 PM CDT...
  TODDVILLE AROUND 735 PM CDT...
  ROBINS AROUND 740 PM CDT...
  ALBURNETT AROUND 750 PM CDT...

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS DUE TO THE
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4206 9230 4220 9230 4229 9137 4202 9137
      4203 9230 4206 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 270DEG 22KT 4216 9205

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             1 NE VINTON             42.17N 92.01W
05/20/2014  M0.50 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
717 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HEAVY RAIN       VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
05/20/2014  M1.90 INCH       BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAIN FELL IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES. STREET FLOODING
            OCCURRING AROUND TOWN.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
729 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             4 N SHELLSBURG          42.15N 91.87W
05/20/2014  M0.50 INCH       BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
733 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             CENTRAL CITY            42.20N 91.52W
05/20/2014  E0.50 INCH       LINN               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
737 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             7 W CENTRAL CITY        42.20N 91.66W
05/20/2014  M0.75 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS