Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Quad Cities, IA

199 
WWUS53 KDVN 122138
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
438 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

IAC101-177-122215-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-140512T2215Z/
VAN BUREN IA-JEFFERSON IA-
438 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON AND NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 433 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STOCKPORT...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LOCKRIDGE AROUND 445 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SALINA.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE JEFFERSON COUNTY PARK...ROUND
PRAIRIE PARK...MAC COON ACCESS PARK AND MORRIS PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.

&&

LAT...LON 4080 9192 4097 9201 4108 9193 4108 9172
      4090 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 234DEG 32KT 4095 9182

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

SHEETS

225 
WWUS53 KDVN 122158
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
458 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

IAC101-177-122207-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-140512T2215Z/
VAN BUREN IA-JEFFERSON IA-
458 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE QUAD CITIES.

LAT...LON 4080 9192 4097 9201 4108 9193 4108 9172
      4090 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 234DEG 32KT 4105 9164

$$

SHEETS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A STRONG 850MB COLD FRONT RAN SOUTH FROM THE
NEBRASKA LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A STRONG LLJ RAN FROM THE
GULF COAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING VERY MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW THINNING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RADAR HAS STORMS SLOWLY
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS LOWS WEST OF KFOD AND NORTHEAST OF KSTJ. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT CONNECTED THE TWO LOWS AND THEN RAN SOUTH INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE 60S
WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SUNSET AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. AHEAD OF THESE STORMS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET. IF
INDIVIDUALS STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD INCREASE.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. BY SUNRISE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS.

ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE AREA DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID MAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT ABNORMALLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. IF WINDS BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH AND SKIES CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FROST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COPIOUS MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS... WITH
RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EXIT BY
EARLY OVERNIGHT BRINGING END TO PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-130845-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
338 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
IOWA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GROSS/DLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1027 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

IAZ053-054-064>068-ILZ015-121615-
CEDAR-CLINTON-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-ROCK ISLAND-SCOTT-
1027 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL IOWA...

AT 1021 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NICHOLS...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF WEST
BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ATALISSA AROUND 1035 AM CDT...
  ROCHESTER AND WILTON AROUND 1040 AM CDT...
  BENNETT AROUND 1050 AM CDT...
  WHEATLAND AROUND 1100 AM CDT...
  CALAMUS AROUND 1105 AM CDT...
  WELTON AND GRAND MOUND AROUND 1110 AM CDT...

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4214 9086 4192 9042 4152 9051 4140 9135
      4165 9138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 232DEG 48KT 4153 9130

SHEETS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
220 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

IAZ076-077-087-098-MOZ009-010-122030-
WASHINGTON IA-VAN BUREN IA-KEOKUK IA-JEFFERSON IA-CLARK MO-
SCOTLAND MO-
220 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KEOSAUQUA...OR 35 MILES WEST OF MEMPHIS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH AND WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

THIS STORM...ALONG WITH OTHER DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...MAINLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM WASHINGTON TO KAHOKA BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 9240 4132 9175 4025 9175 4025 9195
      4029 9196 4030 9196 4030 9235 4060 9236
      4061 9219 4115 9219 4116 9241 4125 9242

SHEETS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
419 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

IAZ051-063-064-076-077-122145-
BENTON-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-
419 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WINDS...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WILLIAMSBURG...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
MARENGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CONROY AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARENGO AROUND 425 PM CDT...
  AMANA AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OXFORD AROUND 435 PM CDT...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4193 9197 4159 9162 4146 9211 4166 9227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 225DEG 36KT 4167 9203