River Flood Warning 93, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE SEEN EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AS A COLLAPSING MESO HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL END BY MID MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

NEW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

AS OF 2 AM...WE ARE MID WAY THROUGH THE CURRENT HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. THIS EVENT HAS BEEN OF A DIFFERENT CHARACTER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPECTED...AS THE EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE PLUME HAS RESULTED IN A
LARGE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED
MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER WHERE AROUND 5 INCHES FELL IN
KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI IN 2 HOURS EARLIER TONIGHT. SEVERAL MCV
CIRCULATIONS HAVE PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN IN OUR
CWA...BUT NOT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES. THUS...NEARLY 100 PERCENT
COVERAGE OF 0.20 TO 0.40 RAIN PER HOUR IS OCCURRING OVER THE CWA.
THUS...AMOUNTS THIS PAST EVENING AROUND 1 INCH WILL COMBINE WITH
MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.50 TO PRODUCE THE EXPECTED 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE EVENT. HOWEVER...THE STRATIFORM NATURE HAS NOT
PRODUCED THE RUN OFF RATES NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE HAVE
MANAGED TO GET PRETTY LUCKY THIS TIME AROUND AFTER LAST NIGHTS
LOCALIZED DELUGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
IOWA AS OF 2 AM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. POPS WILL NEED
TO BE LOWERED AFTER THIS BACK EDGE MOVES BY...BUT NOT DROPPED UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES A FEW HOURS LATER. I WILL DO MY BEST TO KEEP
UP WITH THIS TREND TODAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS SHOULD RULE THE DAY AS
COLD ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR. TODAY WILL BE
INITIALLY MILD AND HUMID...AND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...QUITE
BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD STILL SEE UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD USHER
IN OUR FIRST NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 40S NORTHWEST 1/2 TO LOW 50S EAST.
THE JACKET WEATHER HAS ARRIVED.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. VERY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH LIGHT RAIN INTO THE FAR WESTERN AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN WILL
SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY.

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS
BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. HOW COLD IT GETS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER. THE WESTERN THIRD
TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA MAY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BUT STILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD INDIANA THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS RANGE
FROM IFR TO VFR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO MVFR THROUGH
00Z/11 WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. AFT 00Z/11
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MIDWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

AREA RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE
RAINFALL IS MODERATE TO HEAVY ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS NOT THE
INTENSE RAINFALL THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. AS A
RESULT...THE AMOUNT OF RUN OFF INTO AREA WATERWAYS MAY BE LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

REGARDLESS...SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY RAPID RISES WILL BE SEEN
ON MANY AREA RIVERS. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND RUN OFF WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW HIGH THE RIVERS WILL RISE. FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF SOME RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
405 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-110915-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
405 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THAT MIGHT
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

AREA RIVERS ARE OR WILL BE EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES THAT MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH AND ANY FLOODING WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S NEW WINDSOR         41.19N 90.45W
09/10/2014  M2.55 INCH       MERCER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7AM YESTERDAY TO 7AM TODAY TOTAL.

&&

TEO

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