Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
628 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TODAY...WITH PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
RAPIDLY BETWEEN VFR OUT OF THE SNOW...WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER BOUTS OF SNOW. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
WILL THEN SWEEP MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON ON NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL AT
TIMES AS A TROUGH SINKS SOUTH THROUGH MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH THROUGH NOON STILL LOOKS ON
TARGET.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...GRINDING OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
AREA. INFRARED SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR SNOW A CONVERGENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL BRING THE BAND OF SNOW SOUTH THROUGH
THE THUMB DOWN TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING. THIS BURST
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO AREAS
NORTH OF I-69...WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB
WHERE THE BAND WILL MOSTLY BE IN TACT. THE BAND WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT GETS AWAY
FROM ITS MOISTURE SOURCE WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CONTINUED COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT...THEY PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGING MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20S
BELOW ZERO WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS APPROACHING 30 BELOW ZERO.
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO THE 20 BELOW
MARK NECESSITATING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN OR CLOSE TO
THE DETROIT METRO AREA...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL WATCH
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WITH THE BENEFIT OF
ANOTHER SUITE OF MODEL RUNS LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...

THE POLAR EXPRESS WILL BE ON THE MOVE ON FRIDAY...WITH POLAR VORTEX
STILL PROGGED TO TAKE RESIDENCE AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
THIS WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FRESH...REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
TO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (850 MB TEMPS OF -26 C PER 00Z
EURO).

THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WITH IT ACTIVE
WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THREE ATTENTION WORTHY WEATHER
PARAMETERS. THE FIRST ONE BEING THE WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING...THE
SECOND BEING STRONG WINDS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE THIRD
BEING THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY AND INCREASING
WINDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILL
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON...BUT EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP. TIGHTENING GRADIENT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF 70 KNOTS ADVERTISED
AT 850 MB...WHICH IS PARTIALLY AN ARTIFACT DUE TO THE RELUCTANCE OF
THE SFC-925 MB ARCTIC AIR TO RETREAT EAST AND GET DISLODGED.
STILL...THIS PAST SUNDAY SHOWED SUFFICIENT MIXING CAN TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND SUSPECT WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 45 MPH WITH THE FAVORABLE AFTERNOON TIMING. CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SNOW TO DEVELOP...AS 850-700 MB AVERAGE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SEEN
CLIMBING TO AROUND 2 G/KG...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR 2 INCHES...POSSIBLY
3 INCHES...AS 850-700 MB AVERAGE TEMPERATURE LOOKS FAVORABLE AS
WELL...-12 TO -13 C.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE CLEARING THE STATE JUST PAST 12Z
SATURDAY...AND WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED...AS 00Z
EURO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION/FGEN SHOT
LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. 00Z CANADIAN/GFS
ARE A BIT MORE SUBDUED AND ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW
TRACK...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. EITHER WAY...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY...WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIR THEN SETTLING IN FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

MARINE...

THE AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF CANADA. THE
RESULT WILL BE WINDS BACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND
QUICKLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING. SUSTAINED GALES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS TO STRONG GALES
AND...OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON...POSSIBLY TO STORM FORCE. THIS IS AN
UNUSUAL SET UP TO SUPPORT STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
AN IMPORTANT PLAYER AND PROBABLY THE KEY TO KEEP WINDS UNDER STORM
FORCE IS THE INCREASING ICE COVER OVER LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL HELP
LIMIT THE GUSTS. NONE-THE-LESS...STILL WILL MAINTAIN THE STORM WATCH
FOR LOW END STORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY IN AREAS EXPERIENCING THE STRONGEST WINDS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A PERSISTENCE OF NEAR GALES OR LOW-END GALES
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND CHILL WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO NOON FRIDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361...FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.

     STORM WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363...FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     GALE WATCH...FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WATCH...FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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