Wind Advisory 1, NWS Detroit, MI

901 
WWUS73 KDTX 210323
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1023 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-211130-
/O.CON.KDTX.WI.Y.0001.140221T0500Z-140222T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
1023 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
   THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH DURING THIS TIME.

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE 
   TO TREES AND OUTDOOR OBJECTS. 

 * SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

 * DRIVING WILL BE MADE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE 
   VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS 
   OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING 
   DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA 
   CAUTION. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

BT

842 
WWUS73 KDTX 210822
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIFTING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. THE STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 45 TO 50 MPH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-212115-
/O.CON.KDTX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140222T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
322 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
   THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 50 MPH.

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE 
   TO TREES AND OUTDOOR OBJECTS. 

 * SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

 * DRIVING WILL BE MADE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE 
   VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS 
   OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING 
   DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA 
   CAUTION. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

244 
WWUS73 KDTX 212021
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
321 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AT THE
SURFACE. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE GRADUALLY WITH
NIGHTFALL.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-220000-
/O.CON.KDTX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140222T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
321 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 45 TO 50 MPH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
   DAYLIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE 
   TO TREES AND OUTDOOR OBJECTS. 

 * SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

 * DRIVING WILL BE MADE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE 
   VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS 
   OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING 
   DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA 
   CAUTION. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

136 
WWUS73 KDTX 212359
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND ONSET OF NIGHTTIME
COOLING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-220100-
/O.EXP.KDTX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140222T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
659 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
   TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
   AFTER MIDNIGHT.

 * GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8. 

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1231 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

ANY REMAIN SLEET/SNOW FROM PTK NORTH WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE I 94 CORRIDOR BEGINNING THE FORECAST PERIOD
PRIMARILY AS RAIN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL AVERAGE IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM EAST TO
SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THEN SURGE INTO THE
AREA IN THE 05Z-07Z TIME FRAME AS COLD FRONT WRAPS EAST AROUND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE THE
CIGS WILL RAISE TO LOWER VFR...WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES IN THIS FLOW...AND WITH BETTER MIXING BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
EXPECT GUSTS CLOSER TO 35 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/BR WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
EVENING BEFORE WINDS SWING TO SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...PUSHING 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 35
KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HELPS TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WIND DIRECTION WILL EDGE FROM ABOUT 210 DEGREES
TONIGHT TO 230 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW
  200 FT AND/OR 1/2 MILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1144 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

UPDATE...

HAD TO UPDATE TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH INTO WAYNE
AND WASHTENAW AS BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW TO AREA FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF PATCH FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET. UPPED SNOW TOTAL HERE AND ALSO NORTH TO ABOUT THE
I-69 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS HEAVIER BURST OF
SNOW WILL REACH. ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES IN THE CORRIDOR BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN AND THEN ALL RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADVISORY TO
THE NORTH OF THIS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1028 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

UPDATE...

WITH LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION FALLING
PRIMARILY AS SNOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LARGE AOA FREEZING FOR
MOST AREAS...HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPIATION TYPE MIXTURE TO HIGHLIGHT
SNOW A BIT MORE THAN FREEZING RAIN. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW MAY
BRING 1/2 TO 1 INCH OR SNOW THIS MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY UP THROUGH THE
METRO DETROIT AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE MIXTURE WILL MOST LIKELY
PERSIST AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT TIMES. GIVEN BRIEF NATURE AND STEADY WARMING
FURTHER SOUTH...WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STEADILY DEEPENING AND VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL YIELD A MYRIAD OF WEATHER ELEMENTS AND
CONCERNS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ANCHORED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 115 KNOT UPPER JET CORE NOW UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS PROCESS INITIATING THE EARLY STAGES OF
WHAT WILL BE A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALL RESPONSE ALIGNED AT THE
EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER.  STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOW
FIXATED WITHIN STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST.  THIS MOISTURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO SURGE
ACROSS SE MICHIGAN 15Z-19Z BEHIND STEADY MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT.  A DRIER AMBIENT LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE /DEWPTS LOW-MID 20S/ PRESENTS SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS SIGNIFICANT WET BULBING TAKES HOLD.  A
COLDER EXISTING THERMAL PROFILE AND CORRESPONDING DEEPER LAYER OF
SUB-FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW FOR
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB, BEFORE
THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS EVENTUALLY OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN WITH WARMER
AIR FROM THE TOP DOWN.  EXACT RESIDENCE TIME OF SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN REMAINS A TRICKY CALL, AS MOVEMENT IN THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY
BE SENSITIVE FOR A TIME TO PRECIPITATION RATES.  FOR POINTS TOWARD
THE SOUTH, THE SATURATION PROCESS MAY YIELD A VERY BRIEF WINTRY MIX
AT ONSET.  HOWEVER THE EXISTING WARMER 925-700 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT
A QUICK MOVEMENT TO EITHER FZRA/RA DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LAND.  WORTH NOTING THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING WARMER LOCALLY RELATIVE THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS
MAKES A CASE THAT THE DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED IN DURATION AS THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF WARMER AIR
ACCOMPANYING THE FALLING DROPLETS WORKS INTO THE SURFACE LAYER.  AT
THIS STAGE, WILL HOLD FIRM WITH THE ADVISORY DOWN THROUGH THE M-59
CORRIDOR, ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THERE REMAINS A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS CORRIDOR TO CARRY FREEZING RAIN AT 31-32
DEGREES.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES/ENDS AND AT THE INTERFACE OF THE
ENCROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE GREATEST WINDOW
FOR A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG FORMATION.  WARM FRONT WILL MAKE A MORE
CONCERTED PUSH NORTHWARD LOCALLY DURING THE EVENING.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 40S (UPPER 30S NORTH) THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AND TREMENDOUS DEEPENING OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE A SIZABLE INCREASE IN FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN
ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TODAY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO A WIDESPREAD
REGION OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE MODULATING WARM SECTOR THROUGHOUT
THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  WHILE LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION THIS FAR NORTH WILL BE NON-EXISTENT, THE STEADY
INFUSION OF HIGHER THETA-E ABOVE 925MB WILL MAINTAIN SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTAINING EMBEDDED THUNDER.  THE
GREATER CORES WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
LOWER FREEZING LEVELS.

SNOWPACK WILL TEND TO ABSORB QUITE A BIT OF THE FALLING LIQUID, BUT
EXPECT SOME RUNOFF WITH THE ADDITIVE SNOW MELT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
QUITE A BIT OF ROAD PONDING AND STANDING WATER IN POOR/CLOGGED
DRAINAGE AREAS.  SHORTER FUSED ADVISORY HEADLINES SEEM MOST
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS SITUATION AS CONDITIONS NECESSITATE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF MIDNIGHT.  THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE A PERIOD OF GOOD ISENTROPIC
DESCENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FROPA.  THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
FORCING WOULD APPEAR TO ALIGN JUST TO THE SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A RESPECTABLE RESPONSE LOCALLY TO CHANGES IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DURING THAT TIME.  THIS DOWNWARD MOTION WILL YIELD
STRONGER GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  GREATER GUST
POTENTIAL /50+ MPH/ SEEMINGLY WILL REQUIRE THE ADDITIVE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THAT EMERGES ON FRIDAY, BUT FOR SIMPLICITY WILL
CONTINUE TO CONVEY THE EXPECTATION FOR A POP OF STRONGER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH HEADLINE THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

GROWING MIXING DEPTHS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE (850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -12 C)...AND
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TAPPING INTO 55 KNOTS...WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT 50+ MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
STEEP 1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES. THOSE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE
SOME MODEST CAP IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING AT AND ABOVE 700 MB...THINKING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE.
STILL SEEING SIGNS OF JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF FGEN FLARE UP
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WORTHY OF CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...SEE 00Z EURO.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE FAMILIAR FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP...AS DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN JAMES BAY/NORTHERN
ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...IS REPLACED BY THE POLAR VORTEX DROPPING
SOUTH NEXT WEEK. GRANTED...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT
STRUNG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...SO ONE DAY IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED COULD POP UP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL TREND/FLAVOR LOOKS DECIDEDLY COLD (WELL
BELOW NORMAL)...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS 850 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO DROP TOWARD -30 C...WHICH IS NOT TOO HARD TO BELIEVE
SINCE THE GREAT LAKES ARE PREDOMINATELY FROZEN OVER (LITTLE
MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS). EARLY INDICATIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FEB 27TH...WHEN THE HEART OF THE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE LOWER TEENS...WHICH IS RECORD
LOW MAX TERRITORY FOR THE DATE...JUST TO PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE.

MARINE...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM KANSAS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN TO AS LOW AS 975MB. WELL DEVELOPED
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA. A HIGH END GALE EVENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LOW END
GALES TO CONTINUE SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-
     MIZ076...UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     SATURDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-LHZ462-
     LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
     BEACH...FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......DG
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-210915-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
403 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-59. A HIGH
WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TODAY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BRING WITH IT A
VARIETY OF WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE
MILD AIR WILL ALSO LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD BECOME
DENSE. MINOR FLOODING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING
SNOW WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ON FRIDAY...WITH A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS AROUND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-210915-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
403 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1034 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

MIZ075-076-082-083-201845-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1034 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR LIGHT ICING OF ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING...

WEATHER...

 * PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
   THE MORNING.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS
   IMPACTED BETWEEN 1030 PM AND NOON AS A SHORT BURST OF SNOW
   PRECEDES ANY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

 * VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH.

 * AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 DEGREES.

IMPACTS...

 * LIGHT ICING AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY
   ROADS...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES...EXIT RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES.

 * REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE HALF OF MILE ARE
   ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * PATCHY FREEZING RAIN MEANS AREAL COVERAGE OR DURATION OF THE
   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE
   CAUTION AND ACCOUNT FOR VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS BY
   SLOWING DOWN AND ALLOWING EXTRA TIME.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

MIZ068>070-201845-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
1034 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR LIGHT ICING OF ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING...

WEATHER...

 * PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
   THE DURING THE LATE MORNING.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS AS THE
   LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS A BURST OF MODERATE TO
   HEAVY SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON.

 * VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH.

 * AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 DEGREES.

IMPACTS...

 * LIGHT ICING AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY
   ROADS...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES...EXIT RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES.

 * REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE ARE
   ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * PATCHY FREEZING RAIN MEANS AREAL COVERAGE OR DURATION OF THE
   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE
   CAUTION AND ACCOUNT FOR VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS BY
   SLOWING DOWN AND ALLOWING EXTRA TIME.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     SNOW             ANN ARBOR               42.28N 83.73W
02/20/2014  M2.1 INCH        WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 HOUR TOTAL

1125 AM     SNOW             SALINE                  42.18N 83.78W
02/20/2014  E1.3 INCH        WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            45 MINUTE TOTAL NOW TURNING TO SLEET

1140 AM     SNOW             ANN ARBOR               42.28N 83.73W
02/20/2014  M1.9 INCH        WASHTENAW          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3 HOUR TOTAL AT U OF M

&&

RKULIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

MIZ082-083-202000-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...MONROE
1157 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR LIGHT ICING OR SNOW COVER ON
   ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEATHER...

 * PATCHY FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN
   NOON AND 1 PM.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
   EXPECTED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
   THE MID 30S.

 * VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

 * AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 32 AND 36 DEGREES.

IMPACTS...

 * LIGHT ICING OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY
   ROADS...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES...EXIT RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES.

 * REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * PATCHY FREEZING RAIN MEANS AREAL COVERAGE OR DURATION OF THE
   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE
   CAUTION AND ACCOUNT FOR VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS BY
   SLOWING DOWN AND ALLOWING EXTRA TIME.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-202000-
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
1157 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEATHER...

 * SNOW WITH PATCHY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT
   SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO
   ALL RAIN.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS IMPACTED
   THROUGH 2 PM.

 * VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

 * AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 32 AND 36 DEGREES.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND LIGHT ICING WILL LEAD TO SLIPPERY
   ROADS...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES...EXIT RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES.

 * REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * PATCHY FREEZING RAIN MEANS AREAL COVERAGE OR DURATION OF THE
   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE
   CAUTION AND ACCOUNT FOR VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS BY
   SLOWING DOWN AND ALLOWING EXTRA TIME.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1222 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 AM     SNOW             ROMULUS                 42.22N 83.37W
02/20/2014  M1.2 INCH        WAYNE              MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            3 HOUR TOTAL AT METRO AIRPORT

1205 PM     SNOW             BLOOMFIELD HILLS        42.58N 83.25W
02/20/2014  M1.0 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 HOUR TOTAL

1220 PM     SNOW             BRIGHTON                42.53N 83.78W
02/20/2014  M1.5 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3 HOUR TOTAL

&&

RKULIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1232 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     SNOW             4 E WHITE LAKE          42.65N 83.43W
02/20/2014  M1.0 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            1 HOUR TOTAL AT NWS WHITE LAKE

1210 PM     SNOW             WEST BLOOMFIELD         42.57N 83.38W
02/20/2014  M1.3 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 HOUR TOTAL NEAR ORCHARD LAKE RD AND WALNUT LAKE RD

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1249 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     SNOW             PINCKNEY                42.45N 83.95W
02/20/2014  M1.8 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MI   PUBLIC

            1 HOUR TOTAL VIA FACEBOOK

1145 AM     SNOW             NW LIVONIA              42.40N 83.37W
02/20/2014  M1.5 INCH        WAYNE              MI   PUBLIC

            1 HOUR TOTAL

1156 AM     SNOW             NOVI                    42.48N 83.49W
02/20/2014  M1.2 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 HOUR TOTAL

1200 PM     SNOW             WALLED LAKE             42.54N 83.48W
02/20/2014  M1.0 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 HOUR TOTAL

&&

THOMPSON