Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

CLOUDS TODAY CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION
CHANCES. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH FORMED IN THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
FEED ACROSS THE AREA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. ALOFT WE ARE ALSO DEALING WITH A SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL CAP AT H700 WITH TEMPS FROM 10 TO 12C IN THE WARM SECTOR
THAT HAS TENDED TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO TAKE OFF ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
MN/WESTERN WI. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG AND WEST OF I35 THIS EVENING...WHILE ERODING EAST OF THAT LINE
WITH THE HELP OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BUILD BACK
WEST SOUTHWEST WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z. GENERALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE CAP ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER AS
THE STORMS MOVE BACK WEST INTO IOWA. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. SO...HAVE TRIMMED POP/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM I35 WEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER WHERE LATE MID EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN IA STILL
RATHER UNSTABLE AND ANY STORMS THAT BUILD BACK TO THE WEST WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

INITIALLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET MONDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED IN MO/KS. SHORTWAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
U60S/L70S BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF IOWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE STATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS AGAIN MAY BE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FARTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL IOWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE.

DRIER AIR WILL FITLER INTO THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. BOTH GFS AND EURO
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH GFS TRYING TO
LINGER ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT LEAVES THE FRONT
IN VICINITY OF IA. EURO PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS IA FROM NERN CORNER TO THE SWRN CORNER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND BE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z. SCATTERED LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE ERN TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME MVFR FOG CONDITIONS DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE. EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OUT TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JUL 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-072100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE DES MOINES
RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AT INTERVALS FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
BETTER DEFINED IN THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.

REV

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