Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
303 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVES
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH
SHOWERS EXITING NORTHEAST LATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE OVER WEST CENTRAL
IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IOWA.
FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE KEY TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY
BUT LOCATIONS ALONG I-80 AND EAST OF I-35 WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30.  I AM EXPECTING THE WARM SECTOR
TO BE RATHER NARROW OVER IOWA BUT MODEL VARIATION KEEPS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND UNDER A THREAT.  SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND SOME TORNADOES BUT IT DOES DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY.  LCL/S WILL STILL BE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AGAIN INDICATING THAT A TORNADO THREAT IS STILL PRESENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MO AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THUS DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SHEAR REALLY DROPS OFF DURING THIS
PERIOD AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW.  ALOFT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA
BRINGING CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO IOWA THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES PULLING THE PRECIP OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOK WET AS A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEST COAST CREATING A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION IN MUCH THE SAME WAY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  IN
ADDITION TO ALL THE RAIN CHANCES...THE PATTERN IS VERY COOL SO HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S NEXT WEEK POSSIBLE INCHING INTO THE
LOWER 60S NEXT WEEKEND...STILL SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE SEVERE STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. ATTEMPTED
TO TIME OUT PROGRESSION OF LINE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST WITH TIME
TODAY...AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. LINE SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF
REGION BY 23-00Z WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL...WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SOUTH MAINLY BUT HAIL
THREAT MAY EXTEND NORTH SOMEWHAT WITH A FEW STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG LOW TO
WEST. MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS./REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT STILL FORECAST FOR CENTRAL IOWA THIS WEEK.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY AND WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL IOWA TO BE FAVORED FOR
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS A RESULT THE IOWA AND CEDAR RIVER BASINS
ARE STILL FAVORED FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS. MINOR
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ONCE
WE SEE HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY WE
WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO ASSESS ANY RISK OF MODERATE FLOODING WITH
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
412 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-280915-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
412 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MULTIPLE TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDORS.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-280915-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
412 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD HIGHWAY 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LEE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLAKESBURG              40.96N 92.64W
04/27/2014  E70 MPH          WAPELLO            IA   FIRE DEPARTMENT/R

            REPORTED BY BLAKESBURG FIRE DEPT. RELAYED BY
            FAIRFIELD WARNING POINT ON NAWAS.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
317 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N FLORIS              40.88N 92.33W
04/27/2014                   DAVIS              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED DIRT LIFTING UP SEVERAL FEET AND
            ROTATING RIGHT OVERHEAD.

&&

FBOKSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
318 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W OTTUMWA             41.02N 92.48W
04/27/2014                   WAPELLO            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD...PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

BF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
318 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

IAZ037-048>050-060>062-074-075-272100-
JASPER IA-MAHASKA IA-STORY IA-TAMA IA-POLK IA-MARSHALL IA-MARION IA-
POWESHIEK IA-HARDIN IA-
318 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...

AT 316 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEVADA TO NEAR IOWA
SPEEDWAY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALLTOWN...NEWTON...GRINNELL...NEVADA...TOLEDO...MONTEZUMA...
TAMA...COLFAX...MONROE...BROOKLYN...STATE CENTER...NEW SHARON...
BAXTER...MESKWAKI CASINO...ROCK CREEK LAKE...IOWA SPEEDWAY...
GLADBROOK...LE GRAND...MAXWELL AND VICTOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL IOWA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA.

LAT...LON 4151 9241 4149 9242 4145 9302 4200 9356
      4226 9301 4221 9300 4221 9277 4229 9276
      4177 9230 4151 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 234DEG 36KT 4199 9343 4162 9300

AWB