Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Des Moines, IA

137 
WWUS53 KDMX 102106
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
406 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

IAC025-102130-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-140510T2130Z/
CALHOUN IA-
406 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 406 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKWELL
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKWELL CITY...MANSON...NORTH TWIN LAKE...SOUTH TWIN LAKE...TWIN
LAKES...SOMERS...KNIERIM...RINARD...TWIN LAKES STATE PARK AND
ROCKWELL CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4256 9452 4256 9445 4255 9444 4248 9445
      4247 9440 4235 9440 4232 9469 4241 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 242DEG 23KT 4238 9461 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BEERENDS

725 
WWUS53 KDMX 102129
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
429 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

IAC025-102139-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-140510T2130Z/
CALHOUN IA-
429 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4256 9452 4256 9445 4255 9444 4248 9445
      4247 9440 4235 9440 4232 9469 4241 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 241DEG 22KT 4238 9461 

$$

BEERENDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

ONGOING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF ADVANCE TROF AXIS IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE TO EAST. LCL
AND CLOUD CEILINGS JUST A BIT HIGH STILL FOR MUCH OF A TORNADO
THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING WITH TIME...SEE TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...THE EVENING CONVECTION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH
SHORT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING
LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL IMPACT UPON WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST IOWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE INFLOW INTO THIS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BECOME A
THREAT WITH TIME BUT MOSTLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. HAVE GONE
CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE STATE ON STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

ALL EYES ARE ON SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS POTENTIAL IS WELL
COVERED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK DISCUSSION AND READERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO UTILIZE THAT RESOURCE AS IT IS UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. IN SHORT...BY SUNDAY MORNING AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRETCH FROM AROUND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG ITS AXIS.
ONGOING STORMS AROUND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ALONG THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER WILL COMPLICATE THE SITUATION...AND LIKELY
RESULT IN AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONNECTING TO A COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN INTO
CENTRAL OR EASTERN KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WITH VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY
MULTIPLE...STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS OF WHERE THIS
WARM FRONT LIES AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING STORMS
AND THUS THE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. ALL RESIDENTS OF IOWA
SHOULD BE ON ALERT AND MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
CLOSELY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT IT WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS OF IOWA ROUGHLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WEATHER
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE
WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
USHERING IN COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT
NOTHING APPRECIABLE IS ON THE HORIZON. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE ONLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACRS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH MAY BE MVFR
TO IFR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO EASE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
INCREASING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO CENTRAL
IOWA ON SUNDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE
STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
257 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-111100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
257 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. FURTHER NORTH...ISOLATED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE
STRONG TORNADOES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             1 NW GRAVITY            40.77N 94.76W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CCOGIL