Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Des Moines, IA

707 
WWUS53 KDMX 130228
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
928 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

IAC013-017-130238-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140413T0230Z/
BLACK HAWK IA-BREMER IA-
928 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN BLACK HAWK AND
SOUTHERN BREMER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR  IOWA.

LAT...LON 4235 9248 4239 9254 4247 9253 4247 9255
      4260 9255 4284 9234 4268 9208 4265 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 219DEG 24KT 4247 9252 

$$

AWB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
739 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS. GOOD ENVIRONMENT SET UP FOR SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS
AND LATEST NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUGGEST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE FROM NEAR WAVERLY TO WATERLOO BACK
WEST TOWARDS FORT DODGE AND SOUTHWEST TO CARROLL AND AUDUBON.
MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS THE MID LEVEL CAP DISSOLVES
AS COOLING AND DYNAMIC FORCING ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED
GIVEN THE HIGH LCL VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 FT AND EFFECTIVE SRH
VALUES LESS THAN 100 M2/S2 WITH SFC WINDS HAVING A WESTERLY
COMPONENT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WOULD SUPPORT FAT CAPES AND GOOD VERTICAL ACCELERATION FOR ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
DCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN ADDITION TO HAIL ENHANCING COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH WIND POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE MULTICELLULAR AS THE ENTIRE
LINE SINKS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BUT LOWER TO MORE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS.
POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL RAIN DEVELOPING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE. NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS
OVERALL DUE TO THE DRY WEATHER AND SOIL BUT CERTAINLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN PONDING. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AFTER 09Z. COULD BE A FEW ELEVATED HAIL
STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...THE BROAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH AND SUBSTANTIAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF ON SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FURTHER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO
AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE RAINFALL AT A RAPID RATE. ALL IN ALL
SUNDAY WILL BE COOL...WINDY...AND VERY WET ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. AS
THE SYSTEM AND PRECIP DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER
AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT QPF BY THAT TIME.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER BUT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BOTTOMING OUT ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
STATEWIDE AND A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A
WARMING TREND WILL KICK IN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH MODEST THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL ALREADY BE BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...BUT A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR AREA...OTHER
THAN POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST...DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT WILL BE
SPURRED ON BY A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DEBATE AMONGST THE
LONG RANGE MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AS TO HOW THIS 500 MB
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC CONTINUES
TO REPRESENT A MORE PROGRESSIVE VIEW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
STUBBORNLY PERSIST IN A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION. THE
RESULT IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
GENERALLY 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...13/00Z
ISSUED AT 739 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INVOF A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVE. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR TO MVFR WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ZOGG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

IAZ004>007-015-016-132100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-
352 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-
132100-
CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-
CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
352 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
820 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             OGDEN                   42.04N 94.03W
04/12/2014  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN OGDEN.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
822 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             OGDEN                   42.04N 94.03W
04/12/2014  E1.75 INCH       BOONE              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
828 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             12 NE BOONE             42.19N 93.73W
04/12/2014  E1.25 INCH       BOONE              IA   PUBLIC

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
836 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             HUBBARD                 42.30N 93.29W
04/12/2014  E1.00 INCH       HARDIN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
848 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             READLYN                 42.70N 92.22W
04/12/2014  M1.75 INCH       BREMER             IA   PUBLIC

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
849 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             STORY CITY              42.19N 93.59W
04/12/2014  E1.25 INCH       STORY              IA   PUBLIC

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM