Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST HAS BEEN FORMING ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  RAINFALL RATES WERE RATHER
INTENSE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR NORTHEAST IOWA BUT HAVE
RECENTLY SUBSIDED SOME.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THE STATE
WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING.  DETERMINATION OF
CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING QG FORCING
THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.  THIS MAY HELP MAINTAIN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
THE STATE.  FORTUNATELY...WHILE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TODAY...IT WILL
BE MODEST COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  THEREFORE...SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM WIND AND HAIL WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO REMAINING POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  WILL COVER HYDROLOGY ISSUES IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TODAY BUT MAY BE LIMITED
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

FOR FRIDAY...AM EXPECTING STORMS FROM THURSDAY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO GET CUT OFF FROM
SOUTHERLY INFLOW...SO THESE STORMS MAY RAPIDLY LOSE THEIR PUNCH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 850 MB ACROSS THE DMX CWA
FRIDAY MORNING AS THURSDAY/S SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE CWA. THIS
WILL HELP IN KEEPING FRIDAY DRY AND GIVE IOWA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE...A MUCH NEEDED CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM
THE EXCEPTIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE +18C TO +19C RANGE...WHICH IS ONE TO
TWO STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. FACTORING IN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TENDS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WHICH COME OF THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THESE SHORTWAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST MUCH IN ADVANCE SO
WILL KEEP POPS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CWA AND WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRECISE
IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. AS OF NOW...THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER
THAN THE GFS AND EURO IN PUSHING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THROUGH. IN
RECENT PERFORMANCE...THE NAM HAS TENDED TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...SO
WILL SCALE BACK TIMING IN ARRIVAL OF FIRST SHORWATVE. THEREFORE AM
HEDGING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE TRAIN TO
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO WENT WITH WIDESPREAD POPS.

THE 00Z GFS MAKES A BIG AND DRASTIC CHANGE COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS
RUNS IN THAT IS IS NOW AGRRESSIVELY PUMPING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLATED TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD FROM MINNESOTA. 00Z GFS NOW SHOWING 850 TEMPS OF
8C TO 10C IN THE DMX CWA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z EURO AND
EVEN THE PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS STILL HAS 850 TEMPS OF 13C TO 15C
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SEEMS UNREASONABLE TO COMPLETELY REVERSE
FORECAST BASED ON A SINGLE GFS RUN...SO WILL HEDGE MORE TOWARDS THE
EURO AND ENSEMBLES AND SEE IF THE GFS FALLS BACK IN LINE...OR IF
MORE OF THE LONG TERM RUNS TREND TOWARD THIS GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE PRECIPITATION.
THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SLACKEN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING.  THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST WITH THIS CONVECTION AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH AND LOW LEVEL JET
CROSS THE BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IOWA.  ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH PWATS
REMAINING HIGH PRIOR TO BOUNDARY PASSAGE.  GIVEN THE SATURATED
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND THE CONTINUING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO TODAY AND EARLY EVENING...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EVENING.  SHOULD FINALLY GET SOME BREAK FROM
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT AS FORCING AND BOUNDARIES
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

IAZ006-007-016-017-027-028-034-036>039-046-048>050-201045-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-BUTLER-BREMER-CALHOUN-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-GREENE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
538 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IAZ033-044-045-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-201045-
SAC-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
538 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IAZ004-005-015-023>026-035-047-201045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-BOONE-
538 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KOTENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
439 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

IAZ016-017-025-026-191045-
FRANKLIN IA-WRIGHT IA-CERRO GORDO IA-HANCOCK IA-
439 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...

AT 439 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BELMOND TO 8 MILES EAST OF BIG WALL LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMPTON...BELMOND...SHEFFIELD...ROCKWELL...CLEAR LAKE...MASON CITY
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...VENTURA...DOWS...LATIMER...KLEMME...THORNTON...
FERTILE...COULTER...MESERVEY...ALEXANDER...SWALEDALE...ROWAN...
GOODELL...CHAPIN AND POPEJOY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4283 9308 4256 9342 4256 9345 4295 9369
      4326 9347 4326 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 208DEG 23KT 4293 9367 4261 9349

AWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
744 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 AM     HAIL             5 ENE AUDUBON AIRPORT   41.72N 94.83W
06/19/2014  E0.88 INCH       AUDUBON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SKOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
830 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

IAZ016-017-025-026-035>038-046>050-058>062-070>074-081>083-
092>094-191530-
HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
GRUNDY-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GARNER...BRITT...KANAWHA...MASON CITY...
CLEAR LAKE...EAGLE GROVE...CLARION...BELMOND...HAMPTON...
FORT DODGE...WEBSTER CITY...IOWA FALLS...ELDORA...ACKLEY...
GRUNDY CENTER...REINBECK...CONRAD...DIKE...WELLSBURG...
JEFFERSON...BOONE...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...TAMA...TOLEDO...TRAER...
DYSART...GLADBROOK...GUTHRIE CENTER...PANORA...BAYARD...CASEY...
PERRY...WAUKEE...ADEL...DES MOINES...NEWTON...GRINNELL...
ATLANTIC...GREENFIELD...STUART...ADAIR...FONTANELLE...WINTERSET...
EARLHAM...INDIANOLA...NORWALK...CARLISLE...PELLA...KNOXVILLE...
CORNING...CRESTON...OSCEOLA...BEDFORD...LENOX...NEW MARKET...
MOUNT AYR...LAMONI...LEON
830 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS
MORNING. WHILE MANY OF THESE STORMS ARE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE
AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY HAIL...PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
957 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KLEMME                  43.01N 93.60W
06/19/2014                   HANCOCK            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY STREETS IN THE CITY FLOODED. MANY OTHER ROADS FROM
            GARNER TO GOODELL EXPERIENCING FLOODING. DEPTH OF WATER
            UNKNOWN.

&&

SKOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1015 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE COULTER            42.69N 93.32W
06/19/2014                   FRANKLIN           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS DIRT ROADS WASHED OUT AND UNDER WATER IN THE
            SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY.
            LESSER FLOODING IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

SKOW