Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
706 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH AN INTENSE HP SUPERCELL MOVING ALONG
THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO IOWA. THE INSTABILITY AXIS HAS LIFTED
FURTHER NORTH INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS STORM WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE STORM MOTION SOON THAT COULD MOVE THIS
CELL FURTHER INTO CENTRAL IOWA. IN COORDINATION WITH SPC...A HIGH
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ADVANCE OF THIS CELL.
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE ADVANCING THETA-E
ADVECTION AND THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 2500
J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THESE SUPERCELLS TO BE THE PRIMARY MODE INITIALLY.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH.

EXPECT RATHER QUICK DESTABILIZATION AGAIN BEHIND THE STORMS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET OF 65+ KTS INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING AND FOCUSES
INTO IOWA. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE STATE AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. WILL KEEP A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH 50 TO 60
KTS OF WIND JUST OFF THE SFC. WITH SATURATING PROFILES THE HAIL
THREAT WILL DECREASE HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASING TO
EXTREMELY HIGH VALUES OF 300 TO 600 M2/S2 WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL OF MESOVORTICY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS DEVELOPING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 AM.
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES REMAIN HIGHLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL
RATES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO NEAR 13 KFT. SHOULD HAVE
AN AREA WITH TRAINING ELEVATED CELLS JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 20 WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES AND MORE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE
AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH BUT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION AND MORE INTENSE RAIN RATES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT
BACK ON POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE WITH A WEAK RIDGE...WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEEKEND WILL SEE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
CANADA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO AFFECT WESTERN
IOWA BY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS KS AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BOUNDARY INTO IOWA AS WELL BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ONGOING POPS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE BEST CHANCES ACROSS WEST AND NORTH WILL COME
LATER. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FOR
MONDAY...THOUGH LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW LONG HIGH LINGERS
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN US.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KDSM AND
KOTM WITH MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE LIMITED THUNDER FARTHER
NORTH. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO WED MORNING.  PRECIPITATION MAY NOT DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL WED MORNING WITH VFR IMPROVEMENT NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL DISCUSSION IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION...THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN LEADING
TO HIGH RUNOFF RATES AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PONDING INTO ADDITION TO RISES ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS.
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING AREAS.

SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS TYPICALLY PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING ARE
LIKELY TO SEE MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY IN THE DES
MOINES AREA WHERE THE WALNUT CREEK AND FOURMILE CREEK HAVE HAD
HISTORY OF RISING RAPIDLY. OTHER POTENTIAL SMALLER CREEKS/STREAMS
WOULD INCLUDE THE MUCHAKINOCK CREEK...WHITE BREAST CREEK...EAST FORK
102 RIVER...THOMPSON RIVER...AND THE CHARITON RIVER TO NAME A FEW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POCAHONTAS-
POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

&&

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

IAZ023-033>038-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-041000-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
OR LARGER...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
FORECAST AND MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

IAZ004>007-015>017-024>028-039-041000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-BLACK HAWK-
427 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 3.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E LENOX               40.88N 94.49W
06/03/2014  M75 MPH          TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. DAMAGE TO OUTBUILDING.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S CLEARFIELD          40.79N 94.49W
06/03/2014  M80 MPH          TAYLOR             IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FALLING WITH 80 MPH
            WINDS. ALSO TORRENTIAL RAIN AND ZERO VISIBILITY. CAR
            WINDSHIELD SHATTERED.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E CLEARFIELD          40.80N 94.45W
06/03/2014                   RINGGOLD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE SOUTH AND
            EAST OF CLEARFIELD...TREES ACROSS ROADS...POWER POLES
            BROKEN OFF AND BLOWN DOWN...STEEL SHED DESTROYED.

0657 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORNING                 40.99N 94.74W
06/03/2014                   ADAMS              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ADAMS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVERE TREE DAMAGE
            ACROSS THE COUNTY. TREES DOWN ON HOMES IN CORNING.
            MULTIPLE COUNTY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FALLEN TREES.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
702 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             4 E SHARPSBURG          40.80N 94.57W
06/03/2014  E1.75 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL HAIL...SHALLOW WATER OVER THE ROAD
            AND BRANCHES DOWN...UP TO 5 INCH DIAMETER.
            NEAR INTERSECTION OF 170TH AND TENNESSEE
            AVE.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
712 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIAGONAL                40.81N 94.34W
06/03/2014                   RINGGOLD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS MANY TREES...UTILITY POLES...AND

            OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED IN AND AROUND DIAGONAL.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
713 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORNING                 40.99N 94.74W
06/03/2014                   ADAMS              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE AMOUNT OF TREE DAMAGE...BRANCHES UP TO
            5 INCH DIAMETER. LEAVES STRIPPED OFF TREES
            AND LITTERING ROAD. MAINLY NORTH END OF
            TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM